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Hoosier

Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

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6 minutes ago, roardog said:

If an early Spring to you is March 2012 then you'll probably be dead before that ever happens.

Arguably we had an early spring of sorts in many areas just last year.  The thing is that it came in February and then we slipped back into winter a bit in March. April was pretty mild though.

 

Feb17TDeptUS.png.d1b402273e2a1f1a7c557cf058da272a.png

 

Mar17TDeptUS.png.15d874661bb87f55fa5e51b3b5bb7e4c.png

 

Apr17TDeptUS.png.a10564dfb6848b7eb98eac13bfc8ca8e.png

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1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one.

 

26 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Bring on Morch!  :lol:

 

20 minutes ago, roardog said:

If an early Spring to you is March 2012 then you'll probably be dead before that ever happens.

Yep, you guys beat me to it. A once in a lifetime event that I'd like to relive, but it's not not gonna happen.

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Yesterday I posted about the drought in the Plains and some western areas of this region... and even some areas outside of the "drought" zone have turned pretty dry.  I think we may see this become more noticeable in having an effect on temps once the snow melts.  

For one thing, a lot of the snow that has occurred has been on the drier side, so not a ton of water content.  When it does eventually melt and the water is released, how much of that will be able to soak into the ground is questionable especially because of the extreme cold stretch. Admittedly this is getting out in time but it's easy to see how the groundwork is being laid for some torchy days, especially around/beyond mid month.

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

11-12 Nina was crap too! Starting to think even if its a Nino or Nina, we will still get shafted either way! Reoccurring theme in recent years! We'll see. You're always the optimistic one, haha.  

The lack of posters this winter in our sub-forum speaks volumes as to how crap it's been thus far! Doesn't look to change for the foreseeable future at this point in time. 

I always forget 11-12 was a nina. But it was a train wreck everywhere. Why not be optimistic? It's worked just fine here lol. Maybe ma nature likes optimism? Im averaging a foot above normal the last decade. Maybe more of you guys should try it lol.

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5 hours ago, Guest said:

When the cold returns sun angle will be too high for snow to accumulate decently for many.

Put a fork in it.

 

Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

I’m writing off the rest of this winter tbh, pattern going forward looks to lock in for a while. Really rooting for an early spring this year, been about six years since we’ve seen one.

I hate agreeing with either/both of your posts, but I've not seen one hint that this Nina wants to deliver the goods so for anything meaningful I have to reluctantly agree.. Eventually we'll suffer thru more cold dry-ish clippers but this will end up being a (much) colder version of last season imho. And I'm not sure I'll even catch last year for snow total. As well as I've done in December, I had more last Dec. I'm 12.8" shy of last January and it's not looking like that's in the cards going forward...#pathetic

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2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I would like to see a March 2012 type of pattern in mid-late April.

SMI had the warmest April on record last year. It was fantastic. Not sure what more peeps are looking for bringing up '12? You want 100+ for 10 days in April? Really??

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yesterday I posted about the drought in the Plains and some western areas of this region... and even some areas outside of the "drought" zone have turned pretty dry.  I think we may see this become more noticeable in having an effect on temps once the snow melts.  

For one thing, a lot of the snow that has occurred has been on the drier side, so not a ton of water content.  When it does eventually melt and the water is released, how much of that will be able to soak into the ground is questionable especially because of the extreme cold stretch. Admittedly this is getting out in time but it's easy to see how the groundwork is being laid for some torchy days, especially around/beyond mid month.

I've received 8.3" of snow since Xmas Eve, all of it still on the ground.  However, there is only 0.44" of liquid in the snow.  It will get mowed down in a hurry if next week's storm tracks nw and we get 50s, like this morning's Euro showed.  Most locations across the region have less than me.

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2 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

If it's not going to snow then bring on the tstorms. We've been lacking those lately too.

ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

Yeah, I miss the frequent December/January thunderstorms that are known to occur in the northern states.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I miss the frequent December/January thunderstorms that are known to occur in the northern states.

lol

looks like around here we're going to lose our little snowpack mid week next week with a rainer, just hope we can get a couple inches laid back down on the backside.  things aren't looking good out west, i saw the wasatch front is at the lowest snow level at this point in the season since 1977.  looking more and more like the west is going to slip right back into drought.  

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1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

18z GFS was 0z Euroish but not as strong for next Friday/Saturday.

Ok ill contribute my ,optimistic post of the week.   The 12z eps has a pretty strong signal for a classic app runner next weekend.   Assuming an event does happen somewhere , it'll probably be the last hoorah before the torch.

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Winter.thumb.jpg.aaef9d1f06c21af0c2ac34a9d075ba2c.jpg

I know all the models are screaming torch(crazy East Asian Jet and all)  but I think we all need to relax.  A similar warm-up occurred in 2013-2014 and we all remember that Winter.  There is way too much of a good thing going with the established cold all around us, including a polar vortex that keeps getting poked and prodded. Honestly, we needed this pattern to change and relax for a second, so we can start getting real storms in this sub.  You can already see signs in the models of a more western based trough forming.  Patience my friends.  

 

  Warm Temp Anomaly Winter 13-14.jpg_large

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1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

Winter.thumb.jpg.aaef9d1f06c21af0c2ac34a9d075ba2c.jpg

I know all the models are screaming torch(crazy East Asian Jet and all)  but I think we all need to relax.  A similar warm-up occurred in 2013-2014 and we all remember that Winter.  There is way too much of a good thing going with the established cold all around us, including a polar vortex that keeps getting poked and prodded. Honestly, we needed this pattern to change and relax for a second, so we can start getting real storms in this sub.  You can already see signs in the models of a more western based trough forming.  Patience my friends.  

 

  Warm Temp Anomaly Winter 13-14.jpg_large

An epic, historic winter, and yes it was easy to forget that warm week. We went from 16" on the ground January 7th to 4" January 14th, but of course then it was up towards 2 feet by mid-Feb. I dont know how long or short lived this thaw will be, but everyone has to remember that a January thaw is common. No need to write off winter. And maybe it will shake things up for those that have not fared well yet this winter.

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I think people are in a bit of a panic because the pattern went from staying relatively cold next week to all of a sudden a big warm-up in the matter of just a day. Then, you have all the warministas coming out of hibernation mode at the first glimpse of a warmup...and some trolling...that winter is OVER.....................

By the way, as an agriculture guy, those hoping for another Morch '12....PLEASE no. That warm up was very hard on plants that budded pre-maturely. Anybody remember fruit prices that summer and fall?!? Almost as high as America's debt to China...

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What a nice interior/east coast special on the GFS for next weekend, lol. <_<:fulltilt:

Why am I not surprised. 

If I had to look at it from a bigger perspective, we need all the ridge support we can get from the SE, keeping the gradient pattern locked in, allowing the s/w to become tighter and phase with the oncoming clipper or ride up the Apps. Is that to much to ask for? My hopes of any storm were shattered after 15-16, so don't mind my frustration, lol. 

 

 

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If this verifies it may well be into the 60s even as far north as Wisconsin. Whether it’s 50° or 65° it’ll feel so nice after this ridiculous stretch of garbage cold. 

CF939F98-63AD-4E8F-888F-D98C784E46E1.png

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3 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said:

Thankfully, the EPS and GEFS still scream warmer than normal temps. :)

 

Winter is tra$h. 

So you enjoyed the last two weeks I suspect?:lol: I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this sudden warm up muted somewhat as we go forward, and see more of an open wave scenario with the late week event. Been the trend for two years running. Do look for a decent stretch of mild pacific air to end out the back half of the month. Good news it's the coldest time of year so we can still get some white stuff. But rest assured, the cold/dry regime will be back for a visit thereafter.

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