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Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco


Hoosier

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6 minutes ago, GreenBo said:

That run signaled another round of tundra for the subforum. The 12th - 17th was an icebox. 

I'd prefer not having to start over rebuilding snowpack in the northwoods starting Feb 1st. That's kind of depressing.

Granted, I don't think that's going to happen.... but I have seen it happen before.

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36 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I can envision some real dense fog issues throughout IN along about Wed/Thur with 40's and 50's over the tundra

I hope so, I love working fog nights at the airport. 8 hours of jammed packed with several obs per hour. Between snowstorms and severe weather, fog ranks right behind them.

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The biggest take away from these op runs that I do see and like, is that we are going to get into a pattern of deep long wave troughs ejecting out of the southwest, compared to energetic but tiny shortwaves out of the northwest. These deeper troughs are your money maker for big time systems compared to the clippers where you have to get real lucky.

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The biggest take away from these op runs that I do see and like, is that we are going to get into a pattern of deep long wave troughs ejecting out of the southwest, compared to energetic but tiny shortwaves out of the northwest. These deeper troughs are your money maker for big time systems compared to the clippers where you have to get real lucky.

These are one reason why I think we aren't going to see one big warmup out this way. I think there's gonna be several associated with the warm sector of each of these systems, followed by a brief shot of cooler air, then warms up as the next system approaches. This definitely isn't a snow longevity pattern but I think it's one that has potential for some larger systems, especially compared to what we have seen so far. Some of the longer range models support this idea and to me, would make more sense with all the troughs coming ashore in the west. 

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7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

These are one reason why I think we aren't going to see one big warmup out this way. I think there's gonna be several associated with the warm sector of each of these systems, followed by a brief shot of cooler air, then warms up as the next system approaches. This definitely isn't a snow longevity pattern but I think it's one that has potential for some larger systems, especially compared to what we have seen so far. Some of the longer range models support this idea and to me, would make more sense with all the troughs coming ashore in the west. 

Agreed, the location of where the train tracks will set up isn't set in stone though this is a pattern that would be better north and west in the forum. If you are in Ohio, probably best to fold up shop for a while. 

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16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

12z Euro is a great track, a little to much WAA leading to a messy mix but definitely keeping consistent. Vort maps really tell the evolution of this storm and how it could evolve under the right pieces and timing. 

 

 

Are you referring to the end of the week storm? If so, is it looking colder than the GFS?

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20 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

12z Euro is a great track, a little to much WAA leading to a messy mix but definitely keeping consistent. Vort maps really tell the evolution of this storm and how it could evolve under the right pieces and timing. 

 

 

That's what I thought too.  The 12z euro had what normally is a killer snowstorm track for CMH and western OH.... low from e.KY through w.WV to upstate NY...and yet the snow map looks like one you would see with a storm cutting over top of us with a rich getting richer band of snow through nw.IN into MI.    

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28 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Are you referring to the end of the week storm? If so, is it looking colder than the GFS?

Yeah the weekend storm. It's warmer than the GFS. However, if there was more colder air on the Euro, it would be an ideal track for most of us. See below;

Euro_168.thumb.png.1e73d30fd037b1df964a1a39326df654.png

Judging by the vort maps, it seems to phase a bit with the oncoming northern stream. Alot of moving parts! 

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5 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Oh, that's the one after the first end of week storm.... :P

 

Canadian doesn't look too much different...definitely slower

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

These "secondary waves" usually never work out and it becomes one primary storm most of the time. We'll see how this plays out. A bit slower and we can perhaps getting better phasing with the northern stream. Not sold out on anything, yet! We'll get a better picture by Tuesday, at the earliest. 

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Agreed, the location of where the train tracks will set up isn't set in stone though this is a pattern that would be better north and west in the forum. If you are in Ohio, probably best to fold up shop for a while. 

You said that last month and the northeast got 2 storms while Great Lakes got nothing. You never really know until a few days before. 

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You said that last month and the northeast got 2 storms while Great Lakes got nothing. You never really know until a few days before. 

True, but we ended up with a negative EPO and positive PNA off the charts. We see changes in that already going forward especially with the EPO.

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11 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I think the only thing that matters right now is that there is something showing up on the models. When, what & where & details to be worked out much later.

Agree.  Lots of model support for a low developing out of the gulf on a new shot of arctic air coming in next weekend.

Most guidance favors a track somewhere between Ohio and the coastal plain.   That's about all you can hang your hat on right now other than a brief warm up before that and a more sustained warm up after that.

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I keep hoping the models will start shifting the Thursday system farther south (like they have for others) so I can preserve more of my snowpack, but not much positivity for that. The GFS has slightly trended southward.  Sigh...I find thaws so depressing...

Then after the thaw/storm, it's back to cold and dry...I really feel for those of you under 5 inches on the season.

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25 minutes ago, blackrock said:

I keep hoping the models will start shifting the Thursday system farther south (like they have for others) so I can preserve more of my snowpack, but not much positivity for that. The GFS has slightly trended southward.  Sigh...I find thaws so depressing...

Then after the thaw/storm, it's back to cold and dry...I really feel for those of you under 5 inches on the season.

Meh, it's gonna be a roller coaster, because after cold and dry, then it's back to torch (probably until Feb.) Que sera sera

 

torch.png

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44 minutes ago, blackrock said:

I keep hoping the models will start shifting the Thursday system farther south (like they have for others) so I can preserve more of my snowpack, but not much positivity for that. The GFS has slightly trended southward.  Sigh...I find thaws so depressing...

Then after the thaw/storm, it's back to cold and dry...I really feel for those of you under 5 inches on the season.

I just posted in the other thread but it fits here. It' sbeen a cold white winter so far here and I have no complaints. But i hate thaws. It's depressing to see so much snow melt. But honestly for those that want action usually the risky patterns are what pays off. For those who just like deep winter, the pattern we have had for most of the last month is what you want.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

I just posted in the other thread but it fits here. It' sbeen a cold white winter so far here and I have no complaints. But i hate thaws. It's depressing to see so much snow melt. But honestly for those that want action usually the risky patterns are what pays off. For those who just like deep winter, the pattern we have had for most of the last month is what you want.

I want both! lol...very few places in the U.S. have such a climate though.

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