Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Would bet on the 00z GFS coming at least a little west. Trough axis is a bit west and the upstream energy heading into the Pac NW is also slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would bet on the 00z GFS coming at least a little west. Trough axis is a bit west and the upstream energy heading into the Pac NW is also slower. Looks like it got to south central KY and transferred to east TN and riding the apps at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Detroit/Toledo get drilled on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Seems pretty identical to the 18z to me. Good hit for Detroit(go figure lol). There's also a substantial ice component on the GFS as well, may have to look out for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This would not be good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: Looks like it got to south central KY and transferred to east TN and riding the apps at that point. The sfc low movement gets a little funky temporarily but it def gets more snow farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just an incredible plume of moisture. It's starting to get me intrigued a little bit as it's been quite consistent. It starts late Thurs/Fri so should have a good handle by Tues night runs. Whereever this hits will have a massive snowstorm or possible life altering ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: This would not be good... That would literally destroy all infrastructure in those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 00z vs 18z. Obviously some of this is mixed and not 2+ feet in OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Detroit/Toledo get drilled on this run. Book it. Detroit has been the veritable snow magnet of the sun forum this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, mimillman said: Book it. Detroit has been the veritable snow magnet of the sun forum this winter. Go check my post in the banter thread haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 0z CMC LP placement is slightly further east than the GFS and is a bit slower, but overall similar. Some small differences in H5 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, Snowstorms said: 0z CMC LP placement is slightly further east than the GFS and is a bit slower, but overall similar. Some small differences in H5 as well. Also at least for western OH appears to show a faster change to snow which lessens the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Also at least for western OH appears to show a faster change to snow which lessens the ice. It allows upper air temperatures to cool down for more frozen precipitation than ice. Overall great track for the Ohio/Michigan/Ontario and Upstate New York crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Holy Cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 A more accurate depiction of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: A more accurate depiction of snowfall. Take Kuchera with a grain of salt though, lots of things that can hold snow ratios down, wind in particular for this system could shatter dendrites and hurt ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Another solution with ice... I guess wiping out Ohio's infrastructure is the plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 0z GGEM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Luckily we have 5 days for that to adjust. Sort of seems odd to lock in a prolonged period of ZR NW of a rather strong and NE tracking low in this region, but there's definitely a signal for it. I suppose December of 04 comes to mind a bit in terms of a similar SLP track that managed significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The outputs of two models this far out is somewhat against odds. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, OHweather said: Luckily we have 5 days for that to adjust. Sort of seems odd to lock in a prolonged period of ZR NW of a rather strong and NE tracking low in this region, but there's definitely a signal for it. I suppose December of 04 comes to mind a bit in terms of a similar SLP track that managed significant ice. Yeah thought the same thing. Just doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I am going to cross post this from the banter thread because I do feel it needs to be in both spots: Chicago and east are still in the game for sure, MKE might be stretching it. The worry would be the upstream kicker is there though. So this has a limitation as far as how west it can be. The upstream kicker is also a reason why we have a storm to begin with because it doesn't just slide out to sea, it buts against the ridging in the east which the storm gets kicked north. That is why even at 5 days there is a decent consensus as to where we are looking. Of course pieces can come in weaker, see the kicker/ridging but I'd have normal to higher confidence at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Euro won't pull any shenanigans as far as losing the storm. Probably a good chance it comes in west of the GFS/GEM given the comparisons at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Big hit on the 00z EURO from St Louis to Champaign to South Bend Northeastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Euro won't pull any shenanigans as far as losing the storm. Probably a good chance it comes in west of the GFS/GEM given the comparisons at 96 hours. Yes, a bit east once it gets this far north compared to 12z. Passes just a hair west of CLE to London Ontario vs going through Toledo and over my head on 12z run. More of a NE track which would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Central Michigan running from South Bend to the Thumb gets 24-30" monster run and that is at a 15:1 ratio, which looks close given themos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just looking at the temp maps, beautiful TROWAL with system as it passes by, this would be heavy heavy snow coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 This would be a nightmare for SEMI especially the first 2 sets of counties moving from E-W. .5" ice then 6-12" of snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, Stebo said: Central Michigan running from South Bend to the Thumb gets 24-30" monster run and that is at a 15:1 ratio, which looks close given themos. Monster run indeed. Actual snow qpf is closing in on 2" in some areas. A good chunk of IN/MI would be shut down. A very nice hit in IL as well, even back toward Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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