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November 2017 Discussion

645 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

GFS slants crazy toward climo with 2m temperatures. It is useless in this range for 2m temperatures. Of course we go over this every off season warm up.

Do you mean with GFS-MOS temps trending toward climatology (due to the fact that it's programmed to do this)? Or the other factor-- GFS 2m temperatures in 850mb warm ups are somewhat low. The GFS under-mixes the lower atmosphere when those southwesterly winds come along with warmer 850mb temps.

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Just now, Chinook said:

Do you mean with GFS-MOS temps trending toward climatology (due to the fact that it's programmed to do this)? Or the other factor-- GFS 2m temperatures in 850mb warm ups are somewhat low. The GFS under-mixes the lower atmosphere when those southwesterly winds come along with warmer 850mb temps.

Both

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16 hours ago, Jonger said:

LOL at Monthly record highs.

Detroit's November record is 81F.

The warmest temps on the GFS don't even hit 70.

Will we exceed 70? Maybe, but we aren't even forecast to get that warm -- yet.

In all fairness, his post said "some" not everybody. This sub includes IA & MO and that map looks quite toasty west of the Lakes. Could be much less dramatic over our way. We've been enduring a see-saw pattern for months, and while cold may eventually dominate I don't see that taking hold before January tbh. If the tropics aren't finished, it won't be hard to sell me on a warm period or two.

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On 10/28/2017 at 0:59 PM, Hoosier said:

The last few runs of the CFS have the hella gradient look for November.

Ofc it's too early to be on the cold side. I'd consider it a win if we see a strong CF or two deliver a favorable LES set- up

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Ofc it's too early to be on the cold side. I'd consider it a win if we see a strong CF or two deliver a favorable LES set- up

Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient.  As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.476691fa2470da89bcd85090b15966d7.gif

 

59f65168ba7a2_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_301_16.3_57_prcp.png.33870d8a7117ea82b3cb9c0ce7eecef0.png

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient.  As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.476691fa2470da89bcd85090b15966d7.gif

 

59f65168ba7a2_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_301_16.3_57_prcp.png.33870d8a7117ea82b3cb9c0ce7eecef0.png

Funny, I was thinking about that very Nov. Remember chasing a storm that came out of CO around the 7th and dropped up to 18" in central portions of the Mitt.  I was naive about early season lake shadow at that young age. Thought the snow might be heavier near the coast with a NE wind off of Huron so went that way, only to be disappointed to find out it was rain along the shore. Shoulda went inland, lol

That Nov also featured an historic bliz for the UP. I think that was closer to Thanksgiving tho iirc

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Looks like another warmer than average month. The exception is far northwestern portions of the sub. This type of gradient pattern would be great in January, but in November we will likely be on average a few degrees above normal for the month. 

4indices.png

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13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient.  As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina.

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.476691fa2470da89bcd85090b15966d7.gif

 

59f65168ba7a2_cd2607fb90584bb76a04fe88fc501_301_16.3_57_prcp.png.33870d8a7117ea82b3cb9c0ce7eecef0.png

If we can keep up the gradient look for most of the winter it could be a fun winter! One thing to point out for anyone who praises the cfs, in a few days time it went from showing portions of Canada to have +4C or warmer in Nov to some of that same area now showing -4C or colder. That is a huge difference (in other words...dont praise the cfs lol).

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It's looking more and more like South Central IN/Central OH will see their first DAB of the season tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, I like the beginning of a snowpack being laid down north of the border. Just hoping that the weekend warmth doesn't torch the pack up there.

nam3km_asnow_ncus_61.png

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Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.a9feeaf7983248b7628101317d232bdc.gif

 

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

 

 

The $64,000 question. If several of the past winters are any indication, it's ORD FTW. Honestly though, probably Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will jackpot.

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33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.a9feeaf7983248b7628101317d232bdc.gif

 

First of all, there are some positives to this scenario verbatim. Cold air and snowpack building to our north and west, with the most extreme warm anomalies well to our south. Gradient is close enough that a little wiggle room could keep the blowtorch at bay. 

Also, this look is far kinder than last year's composite at this time...

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 12.26.30 PM.png

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1 minute ago, WxMatt21 said:

First of all, there are some positives to this scenario verbatim. Cold air and snowpack building to our north and west, with the most extreme warm anomalies well to our south. Gradient is close enough that a little wiggle room could keep the blowtorch at bay. 

Also, this look is far kinder than last year's composite at this time...

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 12.26.30 PM.png

Totally agree.  It would be a lot more concerning for winter if we had widespread warmer than average conditions extending throughout Canada.   

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I'm happy to see the warmest anomalies next week will miss Tropical. I want his palms to endure maximum cold damage.

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While I'm definitely on the snow train starting November 1st, I can't really complain about laying down all that snow and cold in Canada where we need it. I said this recently and I will say it again. 1st of all, November average is 1.5" of snow while the following 4 months average 40" of snow. Also, in November temperatures and snow don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Being that it's the beginning of Winter, it can go a variety of ways - including we can have very cold november's with little snow or very warm november's with sneak snowstorms. 

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36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

While I'm definitely on the snow train starting November 1st, I can't really complain about laying down all that snow and cold in Canada where we need it. I said this recently and I will say it again. 1st of all, November average is 1.5" of snow while the following 4 months average 40" of snow. Also, in November temperatures and snow don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Being that it's the beginning of Winter, it can go a variety of ways - including we can have very cold november's with little snow or very warm november's with sneak snowstorms. 

Snowmobile trails open December 1st..... 

I want snow in November, lots of it.

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I'm happy to see the warmest anomalies next week will miss Tropical. I want his palms to endure maximum cold damage.


Can't have cold damage if they're boxed.

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The Weather Channel just messaged me asking for permission to use my video live on air and online with full rights to my name. Weather Nation already aired my video on live TV earlier this morning! What a day!

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

I'm happy to see the warmest anomalies next week will miss Tropical rainsucks. I want his palms to endure maximum cold damage.

FYP

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

 

 

I'd put it across the northern plains (SD/MN). Seems too early in the season to have it set up further south since there isn't any higher pressures in Canada, and the snowpack still isn't established across the southern provinces. Also this seems to be where most of the storms are tracking right now, so that would make even more sense.

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7 hours ago, Jonger said:

Snowmobile trails open December 1st..... 

I want snow in November, lots of it.

Dec 1st??  Oh yeah, cuz peeps are in the woods armed and dangerous the last 2 wks of November! In '95 I had a new sled and tons of early Nov snow, so we'd head out right after dark bout 6 pm. Avoided ticking off the orange coats that way.....B-)

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On 10/27/2017 at 4:16 PM, Jonger said:

We are looking at a well below normal start to November.

We have had awful luck with Novembers over the last 10 years... It's about damn time we get a cold one.

 

Didn't YBY get a pretty big snowstorm in November recently? :lol:

Plus, I distinctly remember freezing my butt off in November 2013 and 2014 (and complaining about it).  

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Just now, Powerball said:

That's right.

In fact, I think he said it was the biggest snowstorm he's seen since 1999 (if not ever). 

Biggest storm in White Lake's history going back to 1996.

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November 2013 and 2014 were extremely cold (for November) and 2015 torched but then had that huge snowstorm that dropped 4-17" snow in SE MI. To me November is the transition into full on winter, but i do not expect a very wintry month, just a taste.

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