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Bob Chill

November Long Range Disco

848 posts in this topic

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Long range EPS seems to have changed quite a bit on the pattern around the turn of the month. Broad ridging across most of Canada is gone and replaced with a fairly robust -EPO pattern. No sign of a -NAO although the AO looks neutral or weakly negative. It’s still a fairly good look for us, just different from what it’s been advertising.

I was just getting ready to post about the same thing. Confluence to the NE instead of a WAR and energy cutting under the epo/pna ridge. That pattern can work here. If the epo ridge is right were going to see some serious cold dropping down. Potential for a workable storm track with cold air available.  I like it. 

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20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Long range EPS seems to have changed quite a bit on the pattern around the turn of the month. Broad ridging across most of Canada is gone and replaced with a fairly robust -EPO pattern. No sign of a -NAO although the AO looks neutral or weakly negative. It’s still a fairly good look for us, just different from what it’s been advertising.

I was just looking at it. Pretty impressive EPO ridge. Hopefully the h5 +heights come back in the NAO region in later runs. GEFS had a neutral/slightly +NAO for a few runs, then 12z today had a -NAO through the whole run. Agree its a pretty good look regardless.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I was just getting ready to post about the same thing. Confluence to the NE instead of a WAR and energy cutting under the epo/pna ridge. That pattern can work here. If the epo ridge is right were going to see some serious cold dropping down. Potential for a workable storm track with cold air available.  I like it. 

Yeah, I wouldn’t complain about either this scenario or the one that it had been showing. I’d still prefer more ridging in the NAO domain to suppress the storm track more. Particularly since it’s very early season. But still WAY ahead of where we’ve been the last two years.

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Looks like all 3 ensemble packs Eps, Gefs, Geps agree on a cold 3 day ish stretch from Sun to Tuesday . Euro op is really gung ho with very anomalous temps during the stretch with highs in the low to mid 30s n/w esp.

A bonus would be a well timed vort during this time frame to take advantage...the cold looks to be there. This sure beats last late fall by a country mile.

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like all 3 ensemble packs Eps, Gefs, Geps agree on a cold 3 day ish stretch from Sun to Tuesday . Euro op is really gung ho with very anomalous temps during the stretch with highs in the low to mid 30s n/w esp.

A bonus would be a well timed vort during this time frame to take advantage...the cold looks to be there. This sure beats last late fall by a country mile.

Yeah it has looked for awhile now like post T-day would be the coldest stretch during this period before some moderation. I agree that if there is any potential at all for a storm worth tracking, it would be in the window from late next weekend into the first few days of the following week.

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it has looked for awhile now like post T-day would be the coldest stretch during this period before some moderation. I agree that if there is any potential at all for a storm worth tracking, it would be in the window from late next weekend into the first few days of the following week.

2M-Temp (F) Anomalies pretty robust on the Euro for next Sunday. Showing anywhere from -10 to -25F departures from normal for the entire MA region. That would be a hell of a way to help close out the month for the area with a below normal November for the first time in a few years. 

 

Edit: You have to go back to 2014 when the 3 major airports all hit below normal for the month of November. That ended a string of 3 consecutive below normal Novembers. 

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11 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

When do we start December Long Range... The 5th looks great...lol

Bob started a thread last night for Dec LR. It needs to be pinned.

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