Welcome to American Weather
Wannabehippie

Hurricane Ophelia

122 posts in this topic

6z GFS was the first to show a Hurricane, every run still getting deeper earlier. 968mb at 72hrs now.  Funny it was 1010 low for so many runs on all models.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6z GFS was the first to show a Hurricane, every run still getting deeper earlier. 968mb at 72hrs now.  Funny it was 1010 low for so many runs on all models.

 

968 mb would be a powerful hurricane as that would be in position against a strong surface ridge and strengthening mid level ridging to the NW. A strong pressure gradient imbedded in higher background pressures. I'm a bit suspicious Ophelia will get that strong. We shall see. Either way, I'm getting comfortable on the forecast for a hurricane. I think a certain record is about to be toast.

 

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

968 mb would be a powerful hurricane as that would be in position against a strong surface ridge and strengthening mid level ridging to the NW. A strong pressure gradient imbedded in higher background pressures. I'm a bit suspicious Ophelia will get that strong. We shall see. Either way, I'm getting comfortable on the forecast for a hurricane. I think a certain record is about to be toast.

 

So, track-wise, they're saying that it's basically going to stay out in the Atlantic?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So, track-wise, they're saying that it's basically going to stay out in the Atlantic?

 

This will live and die in the north central Atlantic. A small chance it could affect the Azores however, but that would be next week. I don't believe it would be a hurricane at that point even if it does.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Windspeed said:

This will live and die in the north central Atlantic. A small chance it could affect the Azores however, but that would be next week. I don't believe it would be a hurricane at that point even if it does.

 

Some of the models have it affecting the Iberian Peninsula. We shall see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 6z GFS looks like it wants to maintain it as a TC very near to the coast of Portugal. Could be a very unusual storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Some of the models have it affecting the Iberian Peninsula. We shall see.

I'll believe that when I see it. That would be exceptional and I don't think a tropical cyclone has ever struck Europe. Any that have are extratropical by the time they reach EU. There was that one in like 1868, but I'm not counting it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

I'll believe that when I see it. That would be exceptional and I don't think a tropical cyclone has ever struck Europe. Any that have are extratropical by the time they reach EU. There was that one in like 1868, but I'm not counting it.

You are completely wrong.

 

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005
 
...VINCE MAKING LANDFALL IN SPAIN AS IT BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICES ON THE REMNANTS OF VINCE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 7.1 WEST OR ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN NEAR HUELVA.  VINCE IS THE FIRST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SPAIN.
 
VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...TAKING
THE CENTER OF VINCE FARTHER INLAND.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS VINCE CONTINUES TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
VINCE AND ITS REMNANTS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...37.2 N...  7.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
$$
NNNN
1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

You are completely wrong.

That was a tropical depression though. But I guess I did say TC and not named storm, do I guess ya got me, could've swore that Vince was extratropical at landfall in Spain, but guess not. Whether Ophelia can do it while still maintaining TS status remains to be seen.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What about hurricane Debbie of 1961? Was that an error? I doubt a purely tropical 80mph cyclone would be able to get to Ireland before transitioning 

Just so it's not off topic, Ophelia is holding steady this morning. Remains at 50mph but the structure seems to have improved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                4.5     4.5     5.4

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

 Center Temp :  +8.0C    Cloud Region Temp : -55.7C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Morris said:
Dvorak has it as almost major hurricane intensity, yet NHC is going with ASCAT and unwilling to even call it a hurricane.
 

Ophelia's core is very small and the eye feature has been somewhat inconsistent and ragged within an asymmetrical CDO. T numbers can be misleading but so can ASCAT. Avila and Brown have noted the ASCAT may not be accurately sampling a small region of hurricane force wind around the small core. Ophelia has also been working out stable air in the mid-levels around and within its circulation. But I do think the structure on satellite will continue improving this evening and the NHC will make the upgrade soon enough.
072dcd9d4108f4f5b9369e78e72123b8.jpg

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if they will consider sending in recon considering Ophelia is an immediate threat to the Azores and possibly portions of Europe late in the forecast period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I wonder if they will consider sending in recon considering Ophelia is an immediate threat to the Azores and possibly portions of Europe late in the forecast period.

Way too far... No way. 

 

And there is absolutely no way this is anywhere close to a major. The reasoning behind my thoughts have to wait a bit. About to go through the east river tunnel

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ophelia is now officially a hurricane:

Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly. Dvorak estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery. However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly. In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is higher than normal.


INIT 11/2100Z 30.0N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.3N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 31.4N 34.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 32.3N 31.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 35.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z 53.5N 10.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the structure. However it's being derived more so from baroclynicity then from latent heat transfer. This is your pure mid lat hurricane. Yes it produces hurricane force winds over open waters but it's not coming close to major status. As by its very nature it's wind field should be spread out. It doesn't have that intense convective core to bring down the highest winds. It's a big wind machine over a larger area but not maximizing its pressure differential!!! 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I like the structure. However it's being derived more so from baroclynicity then from latent heat transfer. This is your pure mid lat hurricane. Yes it produces hurricane force winds over open waters but it's not coming close to major status. As by its very nature it's wind field should be spread out. It doesn't have that intense convective core to bring down the highest winds. It's a big wind machine over a larger area but not maximizing its pressure differential!!!

 

Even if Ophelia were to consolidate deeper core convection and intensify, I agree that thermal dynamics still aren't ideal enough to reach major hurricane status. Though tropospheric cooling is more forgiving of marginal 25-27° SSTs and certainly a Catefory 2 is possible, you're probably correct about the loose pressure gradient.

 

The GFS yesterday had modeled Ophelia to deepen to 968 mb as a warm core system. That may have been enough of a pressure drop to tighten vortex gradient significantly had such deepening occurred. But the GFS has had problems this year with over-intensifying higher latitude warm cores. Now I think such pressure intensity won't happen until post-tropical transition and baroclinic forcing. Which could still make for a powerful and deep storm threat for Ireland.

 

Edit: Nate... lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Even if Nate were to consolidate deeper core convection and intensify, I agree that thermal dynamics still aren't ideal enough to reach major hurricane status. Though tropospheric cooling is more forgiving of marginal 25-26° SSTs and certainly a Catefory 2 is possible, you're probably correct about the loose pressure gradient.

 

The GFS yesterday had modeled Ophelia to deepen to 968 mb as a warm core system. That may have been enough of a pressure drop to tighten vortex gradient significantly had such deepening occurred. But the GFS has had problems this year with over-intensifying higher latitude warm cores. Now I think such pressure intensity won't happen until post-tropical transition and baroclinic forcing. Which could still make for a powerful and deep storm threat for Ireland.

 

The GFS has been off the charts bad this season with systems above 25k. There was the Japan system to 880. I think we can maximize the dynamics over marginally warm water given a near by front and perfect baroclynicity. But these factors are not going to overcome the tremendous energy needed to create major hurricane fource winds 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NHC has bumped up the forecast a bit to 80 kt / 90 mph tomorrow. Satellite presentation has continued to improve and tops have cooled slightly. The core needs to not linger over the same location long to avoid upwelling, but Ophelia just might have a shot at Category 2 on Thursday as it increases motion to the NE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks stronger than a Category 1

ophelia-viz-1645Z-10_11.17-835.jpg.08ee260f2af2dbeabdc4e04598c28a9c.jpg

Pretty cool considering where it is. 
NHC has it making landfall in Ireland. Maybe as a Hurricane!
Could this make a run at Cat3?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest guidance is forecasting a powerful warm core seclusion as it approaches Ireland. So the exact track will be important for interests around Ireland.

 

 

1.phase1.thumb.png.35acdb1f2ca08dcda1e619f4baeb2a9f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, just like 2005 we are pulling rabbits out of thin air. Somehow this thing has continued  strengthen. Has a cat 3 look to me right now. Cloud tops have cooled around a near perfect eye. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow, just like 2005 we are pulling rabbits out of thin air. Somehow this thing has continued  strengthen. Has a cat 3 look to me right now. Cloud tops have cooled around a near perfect eye. 

The heck did that happen? Lol And was 2005 THIS active?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The heck did that happen? Lol And was 2005 THIS active?

 

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The heck did that happen? Lol And was 2005 THIS active?

05 was more active we made it through the alphabet into alpha etc.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.