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WxUSAF

2017 First Freeze Contest!

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Looks like next Thursday is probably the next outside shot at a freeze, particularly for IAD and BWI.  Euro has 30s for most of the burbs that morning.  

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As of Sunday 10/22, the GFS fantasy-land is claiming cold air chances for the 30th and 31st, but we'll see how fast that fizzles.

 

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26 minutes ago, arlwx said:

As of Sunday 10/22, the GFS fantasy-land is claiming cold air chances for the 30th and 31st, but we'll see how fast that fizzles.

 

I don't think it's going to fizzle. The pattern shift showed up around 5 days ago and it's only looking better as we move forward. Ops and ens are pretty much identical. BWI and IAD should have no problem by Nov 2nd at the latest. Hard to say for dca. I kinda doubt it but the cold seems pretty legit for mid fall. 

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Now I'm starting to doubt BWI gets an easy freeze in the next 10 days. IAD may have trouble too.  The problem is no cold dome of HP is settling in behind these fronts. The 2 cold shots on tap are quick hitters without having strong HP parked over head with calm winds and clear skies for a night.

There will be a period of strong CAA behind each front but I'm not seeing a good setup for radiational cooling. It's too early for CAA to pump in sub freezing temps without big cold to work with. The cold on tap is pretty run of the mill fall stuff. 

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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Now I'm starting to doubt BWI gets an easy freeze in the next 10 days. IAD may have trouble too.  The problem is no cold dome of HP is settling in behind these fronts. The 2 cold shots on tap are quick hitters without having strong HP parked over head with calm winds and clear skies for a night.

There will be a period of strong CAA behind each front but I'm not seeing a good setup for radiational cooling. It's too early for CAA to pump in sub freezing temps without big cold to work with. The cold on tap is pretty run of the mill fall stuff. 

Yup, cold fronts look more formidable from d+8-10 and then turn into days like today when we get there. First two days of next week look chilly, but not major cold like has been occasionally teased. 

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16 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Verbatim, 0z GFS doesn't have BWI at freezing until 11/14. Don't even think about DCA in the next two weeks.

What’s the latest freeze ever at the 3 airports?  I can’t find it.  I put Dec for DCA as more of a joke..might just prove wise this year.  Don’t even see IAD with a freeze anytime soon.  Yeesh

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7 hours ago, BristowWx said:

What’s the latest freeze ever at the 3 airports?  I can’t find it.  I put Dec for DCA as more of a joke..might just prove wise this year.  Don’t even see IAD with a freeze anytime soon.  Yeesh

I have missed reading Ian's input since he scaled back time here, and his knack for research ranks up there with the best. The dates below are from a 2012 CWG article by him and Justin. WxUSA probably has the dates of the first freezes from contests since then, so maybe he can confirm that there hasn't been any later than these dates. 

DCA 12/22/2001

BWI  11/13/1986

IAD  11/11/2005

Here's the 2012 article which includes the top five earliest and latest of the 3 airports, but I'm not sure of the accuracy.  My guess is that the earliest chart is unchanged.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html?utm_term=.d2bbc9111886

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I have missed reading Ian's input since he scaled back time here, and his knack for research ranks up there with the best. The dates below are from a 2012 CWG article by him and Justin. WxUSA probably has the dates of the first freezes from contests since then, so maybe he can confirm that there hasn't been any later than these dates. 

DCA 12/22/2001

BWI  11/13/1986

IAD  11/11/2005

Here's the 2012 article which includes the top five earliest and latest of the 3 airports, but I'm not sure of the accuracy.  My guess is that the earliest chart is unchanged.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html?utm_term=.d2bbc9111886

Thank you.  I believe we have the opportunity to challenge all of them.  DCA is probably the hardest but the other two, looking at the models, make me think we could do it.  Not a great milestone to achieve but nonetheless it will be a discussion point. 

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6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I have missed reading Ian's input since he scaled back time here, and his knack for research ranks up there with the best. The dates below are from a 2012 CWG article by him and Justin. WxUSA probably has the dates of the first freezes from contests since then, so maybe he can confirm that there hasn't been any later than these dates. 

DCA 12/22/2001

BWI  11/13/1986

IAD  11/11/2005

Here's the 2012 article which includes the top five earliest and latest of the 3 airports, but I'm not sure of the accuracy.  My guess is that the earliest chart is unchanged.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html?utm_term=.d2bbc9111886

I was wondering when that article would be mentioned.

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To start off November:

BWI 40

IAD 37

RIC 48

The GFS is claiming a chance for somewhere to freeze on 11/9,  and a fantasy for everywhere on Nov 15-16.

 

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We suck.

 

That just puts things into perspective.. Heck, even a decent chunk of Mississippi have gotten their first freeze

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LWX's forecasts for 11/11 morning:

BWI 30

IAD 31

DCA 33

(and from AKQ) RIC 38

If this materializes, some will be happy and some will not.

 

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GFS continues with all locations in the subregion seeing a freeze Saturday morning with BWI and IAD possibly having their first on Friday.

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If forecasts hold, it looks like a very close finish with Bob, H2O, and myself all within a couple points. Bob has the advantage though.

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Yeah IAD and BWI will likely hit 32F well before midnight tonight. The 2005 Veterans Day record at Dulles looks looks like it will stand alone......for this year anyway. 

Meanwhile all four airports in the contest will likely get below freezing and even into the 20's by dawn tomorrow.

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