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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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#Irma now has the lowest pressure (914 mb) on record outside of the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean in the satellite era (since 1966)
 
#Irma has now had max winds of 180+ mph for past 24 hrs - an Atlantic hurricane record. Old record was Allen w/ 18 hours of 180+ mph winds
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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

~165kt FL winds in the northeast eye wall per Recon (190mph).

Actually down a bit from yesterday's NE FL winds....(I think some where near 190kts)

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I think we'll see the next period of deepening once she hits the literal bath waters near the Bahamas.  SSTs around 90 f'ing degrees there.

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5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I think we'll see the next period of deepening once she hits the literal bath waters near the Bahamas.  SSTs around 90 f'ing degrees there.

Makes one wonder just how far she can go prior to potential Cuban disruption. Do we see 200 MPH?

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1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

I think we'll see the next period of deepening once she hits the literal bath waters near the Bahamas.  SSTs around 90 f'ing degrees there.

Yeah I think this weekend is gonna be one of anxious clenching and satellite watching. Irma's going to explode ~50 miles from the Florida coast as we all watch to see when the turn begins

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4 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

jfc is that the inside of the airport in photos 1 & 3?

Yep. Been through there many times, on the way to Saint Barths. :(

Recovery for all three of those islands (including Anguilla) will be brutal, but especially SBH. The harbor was inundated and the airport can only take prop planes that come in from SXM or SJU.

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I don't see anyway this thing weakens before FL without a hit on Cuba. That water is like jet fuel to her west with little shear and dry air to speak of.

IMO the NHC has to realize this thing is like Michael Jordan, it's going to do things nothing else has before

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3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I don't see anyway this thing weakens before FL without a hit on Cuba. That water is like jet fuel to her west with little shear and dry air to speak of.

IMO the NHC has to realize this thing is like Michael Jordan, it's going to do things nothing else has before

Honestly I still think this has a chance at hitting 200mph or even higher. 

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Posted this earlier, still looks to be the same. St. Thomas is going to take a direct hit unless a significant Northern shift occurs very soon. According to the radar, an island wide tornado warning has been issued for that island, although I cannot locate the text anywhere.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Posted this earlier, still looks to be the same. St. Thomas is going to take a direct hit unless a significant Northern shift occurs very soon. According to the radar, an island wide tornado warning has been issued for that island, although I cannot locate the text anywhere.

Extreme Wind Warning
VIC020-030-061715-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.EW.W.0001.170906T1516Z-170906T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1116 AM AST WED SEP 6 2017

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Saint John in Virgin Islands...
  Saint Thomas in Virgin Islands...

* Until 115 PM AST

* At 1114 AM AST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
  extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Major Hurricane
  Irma, about to move over St John, moving west at 20 mph. This
  extreme winds will affect St John and St Thomas through 100 PM
  AST. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a
reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or
other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows
to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.
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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Posted this earlier, still looks to be the same. St. Thomas is going to take a direct hit unless a significant Northern shift occurs very soon. According to the radar, an island wide tornado warning has been issued for that island, although I cannot locate the text anywhere.

I don't see that on the local NWS page: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=18.349&lon=-64.9304#.WbAVPnZ959M

 

EDIT: or see above for extreme wind warning.

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And through 24 -- NHC guys will be cussing up a storm if the 12z runs go west. I know I would be.

2 minutes ago, cdhay17 said:

12z GFS noticeably south through 18

 

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Per San Juan radar Irma is doing Necker Island and Richard Branson's place as I type this post.  Hopefully they are secure in that concrete wine cellar.

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noob question i was hoping someone could help, the tracks early yesterday seemed to have the current wnw trend over PR but than taking more of a directly western track for a day or 2 before turning back nw and to the north. What has caused this dramatic change that seems to be affecting the models because the current track seems right on line with where the older models had it while ending up on the western side of Florida. thanks

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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Posted this earlier, still looks to be the same. St. Thomas is going to take a direct hit unless a significant Northern shift occurs very soon. According to the radar, an island wide tornado warning has been issued for that island, although I cannot locate the text anywhere.

Was just looking at latest model/official tracks and they were all a bit north of St. Thomas.  Does anyone have any analysis about this initial motion as it relates to future track?

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