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weatherwiz

Convective Thread

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Whole lot of meh' with that line.  A few good rumbles and flashes but nothing house shaking and almost no wind.  A gust or two got above 10mph.  .30" of rain though. 

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Pretty much drove where that signature traversed and didn't notice any damage or debris outside of leaves in the road...which may not have been storm related.  I bet we had a decent inversion...or at least an inversion in place which really prevented winds from reaching the surface.  I wish the structures were evident though.  Wonder if a wall or funnel were there?

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We were pretty close to a spinner or two in Connecticut last night. The >1 nROT and a spike in spectrum width >30 knots with that Wolcott storm is definitely concerning. 

kokx_20170823_0408_BR_0.5.png

kokx_20170823_0318_BV_0.5.png

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Rather intrigued today to see how things unfold.  Doesn't seem to be a great deal of consistency or agreement between the hi-res models as to exactly how today unfolds.  Instability/shear will be there...along with decent lapse rates.  Just a matter of forcing I guess.  The best forcing remains well off to the west but there does seem to be some pieces of energy which move overhead during the afternoon.  Could see a few rotating storms as well if anything remains discrete.  

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Rather intrigued today to see how things unfold.  Doesn't seem to be a great deal of consistency or agreement between the hi-res models as to exactly how today unfolds.  Instability/shear will be there...along with decent lapse rates.  Just a matter of forcing I guess.  The best forcing remains well off to the west but there does seem to be some pieces of energy which move overhead during the afternoon.  Could see a few rotating storms as well if anything remains discrete.  

ACCAS by 8, day shift stays late.

SREF dropping a 45% significant tornado ingredients. That's a pretty solid signal for severe weather. Like you said, deep, unidirectional shear, CAPE probably going to push into the 500-1000 J/kg range. But I think the key is pretty strong mid level winds moving through the region today.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

ACCAS by 8, day shift stays late.

SREF dropping a 45% significant tornado ingredients. That's a pretty solid signal for severe weather. Like you said, deep, unidirectional shear, CAPE probably going to push into the 500-1000 J/kg range. But I think the key is pretty strong mid level winds moving through the region today.

How is timing?  

Just looking at radar and satellite loops (and admittedly ...not much else), triggers east of the Berk's has that look of maybe being a bit of a commodity .. .  Of course, if there is more mechanical forcing , it may be less important than relying upon SB CAPE.   

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

ACCAS by 8, day shift stays late.

SREF dropping a 45% significant tornado ingredients. That's a pretty solid signal for severe weather. Like you said, deep, unidirectional shear, CAPE probably going to push into the 500-1000 J/kg range. But I think the key is pretty strong mid level winds moving through the region today.

Holy crap that is pretty damn significant. Where do you think is good to chase? 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How is timing?  

Just looking at radar and satellite loops (and admittedly ...not much else), triggers east of the Berk's has that look of maybe being a bit of a commodity .. .  Of course, if there is more mechanical forcing , it may be less important than relying upon SB CAPE.   

Mid to late afternoon it looks like. Probably going to be mostly daytime heating forced, since the front isn't exactly plowing ahead.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Holy crap that is pretty damn significant. Where do you think is good to chase? 

Probably north. Hi-res guidance likes north of the pike.

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57 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Probably going to be mostly daytime heating forced, since the front isn't exactly plowing ahead.

Could the smoke sabotage this?  You can stand in the sun and not even feel any warmth, kind of like during the eclipse.

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