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Upstate/Eastern New York

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Decided to start a new thread as latest one is well over 50 pages. Enhanced severe threat later this afternoon with 5% tornado hatch for pretty much the entire state. Don't think I've seen such a widespread enhanced outlook in years around this area.

Storms are going to be absolutely flying tomorrow in this area. Consensus on a 700 mb jet of 60-80 kts positioning itself over W/Central PA and W NY through the afternoon.

I can't imagine 75/66 at IDI at 02z is all that common in this region with a system of this intensity waiting to shift NE, especially with a lack of an organized MCS to the west. That corridor of backing low level flow showing up on the higher res guidance is certainly intriguing with the strength of the H925-H85 flow being forecast.

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As usual the weak instability will probably keep things from getting too out of control in these parts. Not much break in the clouds anywhere except down across C PA and the Mid Atlantic region although some pockets have formed across finger lakes to the Tug Hill area attm. Coincidently this is the area I would give the best chances to for severe wx in the Upstate region today (central southern tier through finger lakes to SYR area).

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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

As usual the weak instability will probably keep things from getting too out of control in these parts. Not much break in the clouds anywhere except down across C PA and the Mid Atlantic region although some pockets have formed across finger lakes to the Tug Hill area attm. Coincidently this is the area I would give the best chances to for severe wx in the Upstate region today (central southern tier through finger lakes to SYR area).

Yeah raining here all morning. Thinking central NY and PA has a much better shot at good severe weather today.

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I really wish we could have broken into some solid sun here.  Such a shame to waste a truly high risk setup.  Still thinking someone will get some serious straight line damage and flash floods.   

Things really go into the tank starting this weekend in regards to nice weather.  That awful cutoff low just pinwheels over us for 7 days straight.  Brutal stuff, we just need to dry out!

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We have sleet in the forecast on Monday, lol. Sun has been shining quite nicely most of today but it has clouded over now it looks like. Most school's in my area have cancelled all afternoon activities as their expecting rain, lol.

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Storms moving at 75 mph! 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
306 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Cattaraugus County in western New York...
  Southern Erie County in western New York...
  Chautauqua County in western New York...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 306 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Lake Erie State Park to near Lottsville, moving
  northeast at 75 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Dude that line of storms is absolutely insane, buffalo and surrounding areas are gonna get absolutely destroyed. Holy! 

Most impressive line in years

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Pretty wicked looking line of storms 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That storm about to hit buffalo is legit. 70+ mph winds 

I know, looks wicked on radar (bow segments?).  Weird thing though is it's as calm as can be right now where I'm at in Lancaster.  Wind is absolutely calm, no rumbles of thunder, birds are chirping.  Just an odd look outside right now with that line so close...

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2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Seriously, that line of storms looks to be less than 5 miles away on radar.  But still calm, not a puff of wind. Fake radar?  

That's actually a really good sign. When the outflow starts getting way out ahead of the line it usually means the convection is collapsing. 

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16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's actually a really good sign. When the outflow starts getting way out ahead of the line it usually means the convection is collapsing. 

Not the worst storm I've seen, but very cool how it hit seemingly out of nowhere.  Winds went from nothing to 40 mph+ in the blink of an eye along with torrential rain.  Lightning is more intense on the back end.  

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Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Not the worst storm I've seen, but very cool how it hit seemingly out of nowhere.  Winds went from nothing to 40 mph+ in the blink of an eye along with torrential rain.  Lightning is more intense on the back end.  

Could just be the part of the line that hit you. Heard reports of wind damage in the State College area already.

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59 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

We have sleet in the forecast on Monday, lol. Sun has been shining quite nicely most of today but it has clouded over now it looks like. Most school's in my area have cancelled all afternoon activities as their expecting rain, lol.

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We are all gonna die!  Although that line in WNY looks solid.   Sleet Monday? Could be worse...could be what KS and CO got over weekend.  What a kick in the can that would be....

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23 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We are all gonna die!  Although that line in WNY looks solid.   Sleet Monday? Could be worse...could be what KS and CO got over weekend.  What a kick in the can that would be....

If the LR modeling keeps holding onto the idea of a deep cutoff sitting and puking on top of upstate NY for days, as appears on all the models right now, I'll go out on a limb and predict BUF comes in with a top 10 coldest May on record.  Of course the 2nd half of the month could flip to warm and even things out, but a brutal first 15 days seems to be in the cards.  Pretty much what I would have predicted as the fall and winter months rolled by with above normal after above normal weeks.  Just wait for May 1...a big pig ridge will set up in the N. Atlantic and carve out a deep trof in the Northeast.  Sweet.  

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We are all gonna die!  Although that line in WNY looks solid.   Sleet Monday? Could be worse...could be what KS and CO got over weekend.  What a kick in the can that would be....


God forbid

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Did you guys see the 12z Euro? -10C 850's next week. If that was to materialize, that would probably wipe out all our fruit trees and many gardens. 

Even if it doesn't get that cold, next week still looks awful.

12zEuro.gif

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Big meh last night.

We were in the tornado warning box just before 9 pm last night.  Even got shown on the Weather Channel.

Turned out to be much ado about nothing.  Was a plain Jane T-storm.  Will have to check local news this AM and see if anything more interesting happened in the areas around us.

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10 hours ago, southbuffalowx said:

Did you guys see the 12z Euro? -10C 850's next week. If that was to materialize, that would probably wipe out all our fruit trees and many gardens. 

Even if it doesn't get that cold, next week still looks awful.

12zEuro.gif

NWS has snow in the forecast Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday. Just crazy

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