• Member Statistics

    16,550
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    allwebpost
    Newest Member
    allwebpost
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
weatherextreme

Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01

Recommended Posts

Just now, huronicane said:

Because we know that they are putting heavy emphasis on getting out the most accurate information

I sense the sarcasm is strong with this one. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, okiestormgeek said:

There are some local amateur mets in the OKC area predicting a few significant tornadoes in the C OK tonight. 

Latest from Reed Timmer

 

Forecast soundings sure do support tornadoes late tonight in central/eastern OK, NW AR! Storms likely not initiating until well after dark.

 

C-haeSUVoAAGSQ-.jpg:large

 

 

Update: multiple rounds of severe weather, isolated tornado threat thru tonight! First in MO Boot Heel to W KY then after dark OK to NW AR pic.twitter.com/5LkFSJHYXz

 
0 replies11 retweets13 likes
Reply
 
 
 
Retweet
 
11
 
 
Like
 
13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I can't help but marvel at the amount of things that have come together to mitigate the potential over basically this entire stretch. Wednesday trough too amplified leading to messy wind profiles -> also leads to surging cold front removing any of Thursday's potential -> early shortwave passage leads to veering/weakening of the low level flow further west today -> late timing of the primary upper trough leads to problems with the cap before dark -> amplification by Saturday leads to excess upper level divergence and poor mid/upper level wind profiles unfavorable for non-linear/non-HP storm modes.

That is one heck of a laundry list that no forecaster 5+ days out would've seen coming (or even anticipated closer in frankly).


I have zero doubt that I cursed this setup by coming out to the Plains for this. As is starting to become tradition.

Sent from my Nexus 6 using Tapatalk

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tempting to turn our backs on the whole system after what's transpired, but I still can't ignore the sleeper threat for OK between about 9pm-2am tonight. The 18z NAM (and 3-km nest) wants to initiate several cells in the open warm sector near I-35 before 03z, which could mean big trouble, if it happened. Not too likely, though. The HRRR has been muted on that threat since mid-morning, but the last couple runs are bringing back warm sector storms by 05-06z. Looking at dProg/dt, the primary reason for the HRRR's pessimism has been a downward trend in low-level moisture since those morning runs. Current obs across the Red River Valley are broadly moister than the HRRR, though perhaps a touch drier than the NAM. By 03z, the difference in moisture between the two models across the southern half of OK is monumental, for short lead time. Overall, if obs the next 2-3 hours tend more toward the NAM forecast, I think a respectable tornado threat (and big hail threat) could evolve in OK during the mid-late evening hours roughly from US-281 eastward and I-40 southward.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

Tempting to turn our backs on the whole system after what's transpired, but I still can't ignore the sleeper threat for OK between about 9pm-2am tonight. The 18z NAM (and 3-km nest) wants to initiate several cells in the open warm sector near I-35 before 03z, which could mean big trouble, if it happened. Not too likely, though. The HRRR has been muted on that threat since mid-morning, but the last couple runs are bringing back warm sector storms by 05-06z. Looking at dProg/dt, the primary reason for the HRRR's pessimism has been a downward trend in low-level moisture since those morning runs. Current obs across the Red River Valley are broadly moister than the HRRR, though perhaps a touch drier than the NAM. By 03z, the difference in moisture between the two models across the southern half of OK is monumental, for short lead time. Overall, if obs the next 2-3 hours tend more toward the NAM forecast, I think a respectable tornado threat (and big hail threat) could evolve in OK during the mid-late evening hours roughly from US-281 eastward and I-40 southward.

In the short term, convergence is gradually increasing across southeastern Oklahoma where mesoanalysis shows minimal CINH and weak echoes are popping up on radar. Satellite imagery displays some modest agitation in cu fields, but subtle 12hr height rises will probably prohibit deep convective development through 00-01z. If there's a narrow, highly conditional window for something robust popping in Oklahoma before it gets too dark, watch the area in the general vicinity of McAlester over the next couple of hours. Should deep convection materialize, interaction with a warm front near I-40 could support a localized very large hail and tornado threat.

Otherwise, Brett has a good analysis of the threat later this evening. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Outside of the forum, but the Supercell moving into Carroll Co. Tennessee will be one to watch. Isolated, has the bird-wing look, and has tops already to 52KFT.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWD, LZK and OUN 00z soundings all show a continued capping inversion. OUN has weak flow up to about 800mb, so based on trends and observations, we'll need the LLJ response to overcome neutral/rising heights and nebulous large scale forcing. 

CFE7449B-649F-44BC-89DE-3E1D3271A078-15319-0000097ECF20062E.gif.a8073877d8f757b6d5bb5cc1b95fb1c4.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Storms should start to fire in the next few hours as forcing for ascent continues to move east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, we can most likely forget about the OK threat at this point. To put the cherry on top of this trainwreck of a week, the Oklahoma Mesonet's servers went down right after everyone left work this evening, so we can't even see how moisture is verifying. :lmao:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Welp, every updraft is collapsing as soon as it hits 800mb, the low-level flow is weaker than it's been all day, and the warm front is well south of where the lift is.  But it's awful nice out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

Yeah, we can most likely forget about the OK threat at this point. To put the cherry on top of this trainwreck of a week, the Oklahoma Mesonet's servers went down right after everyone left work this evening, so we can't even see how moisture is verifying. :lmao:

Agreed. Still looks like we may see a nasty squall line around 4-5AM. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Agreed. Still looks like we may see a nasty squall line around 4-5AM. 

Last few runs of the HRRR have been pretty consistent. RIP my sleep schedule.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, aurora said:

Last few runs of the HRRR have been pretty consistent. RIP my sleep schedule.

I'm debating on a strategy. Pull an all nighter and try to be productive, or set a really early alarm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rapidly organizing supercell in northwestern Arkansas and a pair of cells organizing in far eastern Oklahoma. Let's see what these early surface-based cells can do before SBCINH increases later on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

TW for Fort Smith, that storm has the look of one that could produce significantly too.

High-end inflow environmental parameter space, but the cell should be moving into a less favorable air-mass with time. 

IMG_1451.thumb.JPG.09084f88132db48af64fc89715e5ffa9.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
TW for Fort Smith, that storm has the look of one that could produce significantly too.


Was about to say pretty much the same thing. Velocities aren't looking too crazy yet, but it certainly has that look on reflectivity.

5b42414b1abb93a330299a16c0a87dd7.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

TW for Fort Smith, that storm has the look of one that could produce significantly too.

Starting to look better, surprised there isn't more talk about this one. Moving into a populated area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Quincy said:

High-end inflow environmental parameter space, but the cell should be moving into a less favorable air-mass with time. 

IMG_1451.thumb.JPG.09084f88132db48af64fc89715e5ffa9.JPG

The airmass is moving north with the cell although it's slowly diminishing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.