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2017 Spring/Summer Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread


HillsdaleMIWeather

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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

While we're on the tropical subject, here is something interesting that was discovered a few years ago.  I'm not sure if it was already posted but I don't remember seeing it before.  It is an early season hurricane from May 1863 that slipped under the radar, likely due to the Civil War.  It was named Amanda because of a ship that was run aground, and made landfall in Florida as a category 2 with 105 mph winds and then the remnants moved into the Midwest. Not easy to find a lot of weather data from back then so who knows what kind of rain amounts it produced.

may28-1863-hurricane.png.4bc377ee14ef911b374ad038b173fed2.png

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00171.1

Looking back through Toronto's weather history, this post tropical storm dropped around 1.18" of rain in the city. Not a whole lot but I'm sure it would have been a nice event. With the way Irma is being modeled as of right now, which is bound to change indefinitely, the closet comparison is probably Hazel or Frances in my opinion. 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1881&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=5&Day=31&Year=1863

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3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Looking back through Toronto's weather history, this post tropical storm dropped around 1.18" of rain in the city. Not a whole lot but I'm sure it would have been a nice event. With the way Irma is being modeled as of right now, which is bound to change indefinitely, the closet comparison is probably Hazel or Frances in my opinion. 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=1881&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=5&Day=31&Year=1863

Long way out but I do think there's potential for some pretty high winds inland with Irma, given the potential landfall intensity and modeled forward speed after landfall.  Where that is remains to be seen of course.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Long way out but I do think there's potential for some pretty high winds inland with Irma, given the potential landfall intensity and modeled forward speed after landfall.

Its definitely possible. We will have to monitor this as the long weekend progresses but its worth watching. The latest GFS takes it right into Northern Ontario, dropping over 2" of rain especially for those in the Eastern areas of the sub-forum. I believe many EPS members had max sustained winds of over 180+ miles per hour, which is insane. 

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No one posted the CFSv2 from yesterday (8/31), but it is showing a strong below normal precip signal for September for most of the subforum. I'm sure that there is no way to work a hurricane remnant into the algorithm. That wild card could sure throw a wrench into that forecast.

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Interesting to look at the EPS regarding Irma... a cluster of about 20% of the members bring the remnant center northwest into IL/IN/KY/OH, which is not overwhelming but non-negligible considering the large spread.  But of those, a majority still have a sub 1000 mb low as it gets into the area, and well under in some cases.  The GFS/GEFS doing it is one thing (the op GFS pressure in particular at landfall is suspect that far north) but the Euro products also.  I have to say it would be pretty uncommon to get a storm barreling northwest to these latitudes like that... Hugo did something like that but even it began to turn more N/NNE in Ohio.  They tend to be recurving.  There are some other examples like Sandy but that setup was just so crazy.  Anyway, could easily see a farther east outcome but there's not really much else to track right now.

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3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I guess it just depends on how much of a running start she can get. lol

You're right about not much to track. I always root for hurricane remnants in September/early October, otherwise it's usually hibernation time for weather hobbyists in the Midwest. 

I guess I can watch the lake effect rain setup later in the week.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody fix the GFS

gfs_z500_mslp_us_29.thumb.png.32de24593a9dc2f55bc630086d5f44c1.png

Lol

not only that but it tracks it too far north making landfall near DC. I can't see that happening with such a strong block to the north and a rather pathetic atlantic ridge... unless the GFS loses the idea of a block to the north later on (which hopefully it does as we should be torching during that timeframe anyway.)

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure how well this would mix down but this is a fairly fun look for a good chunk of the area by tropical remnant standards. Now just gotta hold lol

 

Wouldn't heavy rain accompanying it make it mix down easier?   Those winds were close to surface winds for the infamous 'dry hurricane' AKA Ike and that was a small disaster here without a drop of rain.   

I'm not a tropical system follower by any means, but this one has had my interest for a few days.   Not so much about effects here, (because that's a very long shot), but because my folks live in Sunset Beach, NC and last nights gfs and euro runs both show a devastating track for that area.     Thankfully it's still a week out in forecast time.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Wouldn't heavy rain accompanying it make it mix down easier?   Those winds were close to surface winds for the infamous 'dry hurricane' AKA Ike and that was a small disaster here without a drop of rain.   

I'm not a tropical system follower by any means, but this one has had my interest for a few days.   Not so much about effects here, (because that's a very long shot), but because my folks live in Sunset Beach, NC and last nights gfs and euro runs both show a devastating track for that area.     Thankfully it's still a week out in forecast time.

Depends.  Too much rain could stabilize the low levels enough to prevent good mixing. It's not like we are right by the ocean with a supply of warm winds off the water.  An area to watch would be downwind of the lakes as mixing may be better.  If you recall what happened during Sandy, the Cleveland area got hammered with high winds as they had enhanced mixing being so close to lake Erie.  

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Pretty bad luck that I happen to have relatives in Houston metro (which fortunately their Harvey flooding situation didn't turn out too badly) and friends in Naples. The Naples people live just a few blocks from the Gulf, so they will get almost the full force of the winds in addition to surge concerns.  I'm afraid it's not going to end well.  They did evacuate but there's probably a pretty good chance their house will be uninhabitable after this.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty bad luck that I happen to have relatives in Houston metro (which fortunately their Harvey flooding situation didn't turn out too badly) and friends in Naples. The Naples people live just a few blocks from the Gulf, so they will get almost the full force of the winds in addition to surge concerns.  I'm afraid it's not going to end well.  They did evacuate but there's probably a pretty good chance their house will be uninhabitable after this.

Ahh, sorry to hear that.  Glad they evacuated though.  That's most important.  Hopefully the center can stay far enough offshore to keep the eastern eye wall from brushing the coast in that area.  They'd still get it good, but hopefully the winds wouldn't get too crazy.  Surge looks to be a problem either way though if they're low enough.  Tough situation.

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