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HillsdaleMIWeather

2017 Spring/Summer Banter, Whining, Complaining Thread

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In a month or two, everyone we know will be saying "I CANT WAIT FOR IT TO COOL OFF AGAIN". Welcome to the best time of the year.

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Thanks to RC and the other LOT mets for for your involvement with IWX's workshop with their EM's and media partners yesterday. We appreciate your participation and input. I like putting faces with the names.

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http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2017/04/michigan_tech_student_dies_fro.html

Very sad.  This happened less than 5 miles from my house yesterday morning early in a very rugged and inaccessible area near Mulligan trail.  It's been extremely wet/chilly with rain and snow.  Just goes to show the remoteness of this area can be dangerous, and without cell coverage in a lot of areas, even more so.  Here's a pic of the Rocking Chair lake area from last Saturday when I was over that way.  The bluff they hiked out on is the west end of the one I live on.  Wish I could have helped.  I try to always be prepared when I head out to explore or hike the wilderness.  You can get into trouble in a hurry and no one to help you.

 

IMG_1833.JPG

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This cold, damp, windy weather is really sucking.  A day or two is ok, but we're now on day five, with one more tomorrow.  It's about as bad of a stretch as we can get this time of year.

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4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2017/04/michigan_tech_student_dies_fro.html

Very sad.  This happened less than 5 miles from my house yesterday morning early in a very rugged and inaccessible area near Mulligan trail.  It's been extremely wet/chilly with rain and snow.  Just goes to show the remoteness of this area can be dangerous, and without cell coverage in a lot of areas, even more so.  Here's a pic of the Rocking Chair lake area from last Saturday when I was over that way.  The bluff they hiked out on is the west end of the one I live on.  Wish I could have helped.  I try to always be prepared when I head out to explore or hike the wilderness.  You can get into trouble in a hurry and no one to help you.

 

IMG_1833.JPG

Yes it is very isolated up there. As I discovered in the Huron Mountains. Beautiful scenery but you must be careful. Such a shame.

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If I did a lot of hiking, I'd carry a fold out solar powered phone charger. Most likely his phone died searching for signal in a poor coverage area and he had no GPS or ability to call. My snowmobile has a 12V charger that I use to keep everything topped off. That's the only time I'm in BFE.

If you hike up to a peak or any hill, you'll get signal of some sort.

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23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes it is very isolated up there. As I discovered in the Huron Mountains. Beautiful scenery but you must be careful. Such a shame.

The UP is not a theme park, but a wild place where you have to be prepared for extreme conditions. Each year, people die because they don't understand this.

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On April 30, 2017 at 8:48 AM, weatherbo said:

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2017/04/michigan_tech_student_dies_fro.html

Very sad.  This happened less than 5 miles from my house yesterday morning early in a very rugged and inaccessible area near Mulligan trail.  It's been extremely wet/chilly with rain and snow.  Just goes to show the remoteness of this area can be dangerous, and without cell coverage in a lot of areas, even more so.  Here's a pic of the Rocking Chair lake area from last Saturday when I was over that way.  The bluff they hiked out on is the west end of the one I live on.  Wish I could have helped.  I try to always be prepared when I head out to explore or hike the wilderness.  You can get into trouble in a hurry and no one to help you.

 

IMG_1833.JPG

Sad story but this is a wonderful photo…I love Northern Michigan, the variety of the forest is impressive.

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This morning's IND near and short term discussion (I changed the author's name):

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 214 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

Over Arkansas this morning surface analysis showed low pressure. 
In place across Central Indiana cool northeast surface flow was. 
An extensive shield of rain spreading across Central Indiana 
radar shows.

To continued rainfall today many features point.

Water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the
plains...heading east. Pouring into the Ohio valley, ahead of the
trough deep moisture was seen. Forecast soundings today remain 
saturated. PWATs are less then the previous system...only around 
1.25 inches. Deep moisture and excellent lift Time height sections
show. Further support is seen from on the GFS 295k Isentropic 
surface...present is good up-glide with specific humidities over 
8 g/kg. With NE winds at the surface and southerly winds aloft a
classic overrunning situation in place is. No adjustment needed 
to the ongoing flash flood watch and 100 pops. A lack of 
instability and CAPE forecast soundings reveal. Inhibit thunder 
development this will, and less likely heavy downpours will be. 
Reasonable it looks for slow and steady moderate rain.

Will continue to trend highs today cooler than the blend given 
the expected clouds...rain and cool northeast flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 214 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

Change little through Friday the weather will.

Through Friday...The GFS shows the deep upper low...nearly cut-
off...pushing through the Tennessee valley. In place across
southern Indiana a slow moving surface low this keeps. Amid weak
to moderate forcing...This will result in Wrap around moisture 
and cyclonic flow across Central Indiana through Friday. 
Again...this should result in a longer duration...slow and steady 
light rains. Not Likely convection does appear as Forecast 
soundings continue to show minimal instability. Still given all 
the upper support and plentiful moisture...confidence for rain is 
high. Reasonable the models seem suggesting several inches of 
rain across the area through the period. Toward categorical will 
trend pops and trend highs cooler than the blend and lows warmer.

A brief break looks in store on Friday Night as the upper low 
finally moves east to West Virgina. quickly northeast the surface
low does move toward Western New York. Move east of the area the 
best moisture does on Friday night. Drying within the column forecast
soundings show. Toward a low chance pop only will trend on Friday
Night.

Depart quietly though this system will not. Another short wave the GFS
and NAM again suggest diving quickly south across the Great lakes
to Indiana. Shallow moisture with some instability Forecast 
soundings show here...particularly in the morning. Easily reached
convective temperatures in the lower 50s will be. Thus Chance pops
on Saturday will be needed as the upper support arrives along 
with cooler air aloft in the afternoon hours. By Saturday night 
forecast soundings go dry as upper support and any heating is 
lost. To New England the upper low departs on Saturday night. 
Trend toward dry and cold then with NW flow expected the forecast
will.
NEAR TERM...YODA
SHORT TERM...YODA
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Not in our sub-forum...but the trough over the Rockies responsible for the severe weather in the Midwest has some incredibly cold air associated with it, for the time of year.  There may be accumulating snow in Denver tomorrow...which is shocking for May 18.  Grand Junction CO may drop near freezing tomorrow morning...which would set a new record for latest freeze by 4 days.

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12 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Not in our sub-forum...but the trough over the Rockies responsible for the severe weather in the Midwest has some incredibly cold air associated with it, for the time of year.  There may be accumulating snow in Denver tomorrow...which is shocking for May 18.  Grand Junction CO may drop near freezing tomorrow morning...which would set a new record for latest freeze by 4 days.

Cold anomalies and weather is more fun to track than warmth. I welcome anything other than anomalous warmth.

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9 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Cold anomalies and weather is more fun to track than warmth. I welcome anything other than anomalous warmth.

Me too - but you and I are rare breeds...which is great. :) 

Bring on 1/6/2014.

 

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The strong winds are picking up topsoil. The planted farm field across the road is trying to visit my kitchen. I've had to sweep piles of topsoil out from between my storm door and kitchen door 3 times this afternoon. :(

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23 minutes ago, knitwx said:

The strong winds are picking up topsoil. The planted farm field across the road is trying to visit my kitchen. I've had to sweep piles of topsoil out from between my storm door and kitchen door 3 times this afternoon. :(

I know that one of the interstates was closed in Central Illinois for awhile earlier today due to a duststorm reducing visibilities enough to cause multiple accidents

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5 hours ago, knitwx said:

The strong winds are picking up topsoil. The planted farm field across the road is trying to visit my kitchen. I've had to sweep piles of topsoil out from between my storm door and kitchen door 3 times this afternoon. :(

Oh come on, it just wants to come in for a cup of coffee :lmao:

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14 hours ago, Stebo said:

Oh come on, it just wants to come in for a cup of coffee :lmao:

Ground coffee I presume.:D

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This weather is horrible... second straight day of mid 40s, rain, and wind.  Just a couple days ago we were mid to upper 80s and moderately humid.

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Had a centipede in my bathroom.  Never saw one indoors this early in the year, which probably doesn't bode well.  Normally I don't root for extinction of our fellow living things, but I'd make an exception in this case.  I hate them.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Had a centipede in my bathroom.  Never saw one indoors this early in the year, which probably doesn't bode well.  Normally I don't root for extinction of our fellow living things, but I'd make an exception in this case.  I hate them.

I had one in the shower with me and I didn't see it until I was already in the shower. Needless to say I had to burn the house down.

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18 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Just for a laugh, here's a sounding on the long range GFS

2017052100_GFS_360_44.48,-91.37_severe_m

They call it the fantasy range for a reason, lol.

To get anything even remotely close to that to pan out would be impressive.

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Can we please have an end to the rain here? We are under a flood advisory and my street has flooded for the first time in the 10 years that I have lived here. Half of my yard is also a lake. A lot of street flooding in the area. Of course I had to go out in it and there were some creeks that were out of their banks and flowing down two streets like rivers and pouring over them at two points like cascades. I just told myself 'that is not 6 inches of fast moving water...maybe four or five' and drove through anyway. Stupid but I am like a kid with abnormal weather...what can I say. A number of people were out recording those cascades over the roads and their properties too.

 

Can we dry out now though? Damn.

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3 hours ago, Stebo said:

At the rate the stuff to my southwest is evolving, I am concerning I might not get any rain...

Parts of the area did at least see a convective shower (if not weak t'storm) late this morning, including where I was in Troy.

But overall, it's been dry. There are parts of downnriver and the lower east side that haven't seen any rain (let alone t'storms) for a couple weeks now.

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11 hours ago, Powerball said:

Parts of the area did at least see a convective shower (if not weak t'storm) late this morning, including where I was in Troy.

But overall, it's been dry. There are parts of downnriver and the lower east side that haven't seen any rain (let alone t'storms) for a couple weeks now.

I was at just 0.02" on the month but a shower this morning dropped 0.32".

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I hate to mention this so far out, but wondering if we might see a death ridge appearance late month.  Or perhaps it tries to assert and ends up putting some zone in a favored location for ring of fire action.

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