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Central Pa - March Monster 2017


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1 hour ago, AllWeather said:

Have to watch it close. Inverted troughs are surprise-makers ALL. THE. TIME. 4k NAM/HRRR are really robust with precip painting an area from the I-99 corridor to the Susquehanna River with several inches of snow from late this evening and through the overnight. These inverted troughs can get convective and we may see some surprises...Perhaps our buddy @Cashtown_Coop cashes in with elevation and being in the right spot. 

I'm in!   

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Cashtown, same question to you good sir, please let me know any more information regarding MDT's ever changing snow totals ?

Nothing about the last week stuff - haven't heard back from them. Early this week's storm put down a total of 17". The initial climo report had to be corrected (showed Tuesday's snow at 17", but was really 2.3" Monday night, and 14.7" on Tuesday for a STORM TOTAL of 17.0"). 

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Ok, Thanks Matt.

Getting back to today's event, I just looked at the last couple of runs of the HRRR, & it looks to be ever so slightly pushing the snow zone a little to the east towards Dauphin & York county. The small bullseye still looks to be western Perry, western Cumberland, Adams & Franklin counties.

I know you mentioned these set ups are complicated, so is there Any chance this shifts maybe 30-50 miles east to get Harrisburg & Lancaster into those 2-3 inch totals that the HRRR is showing ?

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ok, Thanks Matt.

Getting back to today's event, I just looked at the last couple of runs oh the HRRR, & it looks to be ever so slightly pushing the snow zone a little to the east towards Dauphin & York county. The small bullseye still looks to be western Perry, western Cumberland, Adams & Franklin counties.

I know you mentioned these set ups are complicated, so is there Any chance this shifts maybe 30-50 miles east to get Harrisburg & Lancaster into those 2-3 inch totals that the HRRR is showing ?

It's possible for a shift, but seems like meso guidance is pegged west of the river right now. Even our in-house RPM (Predictor) model is showing it setting up west of the river. 

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Nothing about the last week stuff - haven't heard back from them. Early this week's storm put down a total of 17". The initial climo report had to be corrected (showed Tuesday's snow at 17", but was really 2.3" Monday night, and 14.7" on Tuesday for a STORM TOTAL of 17.0"). 


So Harrisburg had 17" on 1.96" liquid. That's a ratio of 8.67:1


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The 12z NAM has shifted a little bit east for tonight's snow.

The 12k regular old NAM & the 3k NAM puts down 2 inches over the Harrisburg area back to all of Perry, Cumberland, Adams & Franklin county. The Parallel 12k went to town with even a couple of more inches in this same zone. The 3k looked similar to its previous run with the bullseye just west of Harrisburg.

The trend is our friend, maybe we can get our Lancaster crew in the game yet too ? Heck, a day or 2 ago the bullseye was supposed to be NYC & southern New England, so who knows?

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z NAM has shifted a little bit east for tonight's snow.

The 12k regular old NAM & the 3k NAM puts down 2 inches over the Harrisburg area back to all of Perry, Cumberland, Adams & Franklin county. The Parallel 12k went to town with even a couple of more inches in this same zone. The 3k looked similar to its previous run with the bullseye just west of Harrisburg.:wub:

The trend is our friend, maybe we can get our Lancaster crew in the game yet too ? Heck, a day or 2 ago the bullseye was supposed to be NYC & southern New England, so who knows?

Yay me...lol.

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Pretty decent look for the area west 83 for some snow this evening. The area of best impact is currently portrayed from west of HBG down into Adams and Franklin counties with a max running along South Mountain thanks to orographic enhancement and longer period of snowfall. Below is a sounding I pulled around Cashtown's area overnight, right when the HRRR showed a flip to snow. Decent omega within the the sounding and lapse rates conducive for weak convection shown by the HRRR at that time, so snow would be moderate to heavy in terms of rates. As Matt said earlier, inverted troughs are tough to pinpoint where the best impact would be confined, but high resolution guidance is persistent in its placement of the heaviest echoes and handling of the upper pattern. 3km NAM and HRRR are in fairly good agreement at this time, so that's a nice set of guidance in tandem as we head into the short term. Have to keep an eye on any changes later this afternoon and evening to see if the axis shifts further to the east/west.

58cd5f04a7405_HRRR14z.thumb.PNG.da5fe2aa85afbec746eb24dbe6777f55.PNG

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Good luck west of the river snow hounds. Since I'm a mile east I'll enjoy my cloudy and 38 and like it. (that is my inner Jebman coming out)

2:00pm state of the snow pack. Down to about 2"-3" in areas that received a lot of sun this week, still about 7" in more protected areas. It is melting off quickly as the day goes on...

High school baseball team hoping to play this coming Friday. That was to be the 4th and final non-league game, but might end being the one and only. 

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Euro in agreement that areas west of 83 will be the spots to be for this one, but of course banding prediction is tough to get this far out. HRRR is insistent on Adams county in the southern tier getting hit decent overnight with start time around 9-10pm. I like South Mountain as the top spot. Could sneak with 3-5" if the setup comes to fruition. 

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2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

Curious, what did it say? I've been hearing that we'll be in the mid 60s next weekend...

The 12z Euro has a major snowstorm for next Sunday & Monday. It is a weaker low that passes to our south with a massive strong High to our north that brings a ton of QPF that translated into around 10 inches of snow in the LSV & around 2 feet towards I-80. It's a long way out in time, but something to keep an eye on.

 

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Snowboard now covered with solid white dusting.  Temp down to 33.6.  Car tops totally white now as well.

For those who may not have looked at the NAM, the 18Z shows another snowstorm underway over our entire southern tier beginning 8:00pm Tuesday evening with 850's around -6 and dropping.  Forget the EURO for next weekend...we've got another one coming before that...lol.

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12 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

For those who may not have looked at the NAM, the 18Z shows another snowstorm underway over our entire southern tier beginning 8:00pm Tuesday evening with 850's around -6 and dropping.  Forget the EURO for next weekend...we've got another one coming before that...lol.

Y'all are breaking my heart here... :(

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As I head off to bed my last readings are snowfall = 1.1" and it continues to snow moderately with fairly large flakes.  Temp has dropped to 32.5 degrees.  The snow has turned all the trees white again and it looks very calm and serene out there.  I'll be back on in the morning with the final measurement.  'Nite all...

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