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NEG NAO

March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

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10 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Those back-to-back major storms were the only time I can recall the city having a Winter Storm Watch and Warning up at the same time.

Good point, I had forgotten about that!  They were so close together there was a warning for the first storm and a watch for the next one at the same time!

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'm not buying the 850s surging above zero when the 850 low is tracking SE of Long Island. But I guess it's the UKMET. It trended SE with the mid level lows. 

The warm tropical air is surging Nortwestward because of the negatively tilted trough. This storm has a tropical connection. You have strong Southeasterly mid-level winds right off the ocean for a time. That 850mb low would need to be about 25 miles further ESE to keep it away from NYC.

TT_GZ_UU_VV_030_0850.gif

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The warm tropical air is surging Nortwestward because of the negatively tilted trough. This storm has a tropical connection. You have strong Southeasterly mid-level winds right off the ocean for a time. That 850mb low would need to be about 25 miles further ESE to keep it away from NYC.

TT_GZ_UU_VV_030_0850.gif

This is a terrible post.  Even the image you posted doesn't support what you're asserting (it shows a robust coastal front which is common in these sort of setups). 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The warm tropical air is surging Nortwestward because of the negatively tilted trough. This storm has a tropical connection. You have strong Southeasterly mid-level winds right off the ocean for a time. That 850mb low would need to be about 25 miles further ESE to keep it away from NYC.

TT_GZ_UU_VV_030_0850.gif

Yanks how far west to you think that warm air surge gets into nj? 

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13 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Terrible analysis here. The Ukmet moved the 850mb low well SE of 0z run. It tracks it off the Jersey shore and south of NYC, keeping NYC cold until the 700mb low moves overhead at about hour 27 and dry slots the area.

Ukmet verbatim is 40mm of precip as snow, then the 700mb low comes west and overhead and the dynamics are gone and they switch to snizzle/mix with about 7-10mm of precip left.

The 850mb low track on the 12z UKMET looks very similar to me as compared to the 00z run.

Here was 00z.

TT_GZ_UU_VV_042_0850.gif

As compared to 12z. If anything 850mb temps look slightly warmer for NYC on the latest run.

TT_GZ_UU_VV_030_0850.gif

 

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

This is a terrible post.  Even the image you posted doesn't support what you're asserting (it shows a robust coastal front which is common in these sort of setups). 

Excuse me? The 850mb freezling line is right over the Hudson river in this frame.

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2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

Yanks how far west to you think that warm air surge gets into nj? 

I would think to about  EWR. That's pretty typical in these setups, although maybe it's closer to the Hudson river. You have a very dynmaic system, so that will help to cool the column.

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These are in Kilometers, so subtract about 15-20 off the number to convert into MPH. For example 50 kph is about 32MPH. 60 kph is about 37mph.

UV_PN_UU_VV_024_1000.gif

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1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

Not a great morning of trends if you live east of the city.

Not true at all. The west trend has stopped and everyone sees a foot+ on every model. Some models 20" out to suffolk.

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Suffolk County totals look too high now...maybe 12" at the Nassau/Suffolk border?  News 12 calls for 6" at Montauk...12 along the western N. Shore Hills.

Looks like MTK 6" FOK 8"  ISP 10"  

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I would think to about  EWR. That's pretty typical in these setups, although maybe it's closer to the Hudson river. You have a very dynmaic system, so that will help to cool the column.

Thank you for your answer. I manage a restaurant in watchung cleaning up the snow will be enormously easier without a layer of cement on top. Fingers crossed

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

These are in Kilometers, so subtract about 15-20 off the number to convert into MPH. For example 50 kph is about 32MPH. 60 kph is about 37mph.

Of - instead of using a silly rule that doesn't work - you can just multiply by the conversion factor of 0.62.

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

It's not even worth using a facepalm meme to respond to this, but you should post less and learn more.  Screaming southeasterly winds indeed.

I'm really not sure what your problem is.

You have the 850mb low hugging the coast on most guidance. Even on the more Easterly models, the mid level centers don't begin tracking more Easterly until off the NJ coast. Even the colder GFS has > 80kt Southeasterly winds at 850mb.

gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_5.png

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Just now, middlesea said:

Suffolk County totals look too high now...maybe 12" at the Nassau/Suffolk border?  News 12 calls for 6" at Montauk...12 along the western N. Shore Hills.

Looks like MTK 6" FOK 8"  ISP 10"  

I think Islip sees 12", Montauk 8", and Nassau/Suffolk border 15"

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not true at all. The west trend has stopped and everyone sees a foot+ on every model. Some models 20" out to suffolk.

While I respect you as a poster, I will go ahead and disagree with you on this. No one anywhere near Suffolk Cty is seeing 20". Very few locale's east of the GWB will see 12" tomorrow (sleet not inclusive); perhaps northern Manhattan and the Bronx will.

Considering the sheer speed of the system, coupled with, less than ideal mid level center tracks has this sizing up as a disappointment for many.

I hope am I wrong - this has an 1980's snow event written all over it.

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I think the error distribution from some of these near-coastal depictions is like 20 miles west equals 50 miles east, and I would put my money on east, the 500-mb wind direction never backs enough to sustain these coastal-hugging depictions; the intensity will go into surface pressure deepening on a track NNE through Montauk into se MA. A very strong frontal boundary will run NNE from central LI to eastern CT to BOS and not oscillate very much in my opinion. As a result NYC and HV, n NJ could get 18-24 inches of snow with just minor mixing. 

Watch for later models to catch onto even more intensification once they detect that the primary center is the ne GOMEX low and not the leading wave. As that speeds up and deepens, we'll be seeing historic pressure falls and precip rates. I think an eventual pressure in the 965-970 range is possible. There's going to be frequent thunder with all the precip types too. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm really not sure what your problem is.

You have the 850mb low hugging the coast on most guidance. Even on the more Easterly models, the mid level centers don't begin tracking more Easterly until off the NJ coast. Even the colder GFS has > 80kt Southeasterly winds at 850mb.

gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_5.png

You're just wrong.  Just because 850s rise above zero because an occluding low is nearly overhead doesn't mean you have 'screaming southeasterlies" overhead.  The maps you are posting show the bulk of the WAA, even in the midlevels, offshore, as it always is. 

If you don't have strong WAA, you don't get a big snowstorm.  Big snowstorms always have that on the front end.  That's indicative of nothing.  But normally you'll see some sort of frontogenesis and the area that stays just to the cold side of that front will stay all snow and get absolutely pasted, often with an area of subsidence between that band and the colder band further northwest.  That pattern is generally poorly modelled, especially by globals. 

As modelled by nearly all guidance, NYC stays on the cold side of this and stays all snow for the highest rates.  A few hours of snizzle at the end doesn't change the forecast all that much, though it means the highest totals might be just N&W.  

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2 minutes ago, Manny said:

What's a general call for NYC proper even with the new runs? I feel like it's been all over the place this morning, no real clear dilneated answer.

 

Most pros have about 12-16 in NYC.

 

More west and north, less south and east. 

 

Think this is what we will see.

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Just now, Drz1111 said:

You're just wrong.  Just because 850s rise above zero because an occluding low is nearly overhead doesn't mean you have 'screaming southeasterlies" overhead.  The maps you are posting show the bulk of the WAA, even in the midlevels, offshore, as it always is. 

If you don't have strong WAA, you don't get a big snowstorm.  Big snowstorms always have that on the front end.  That's indicative of nothing.  But normally you'll see some sort of frontogenesis and the area that stays just to the cold side of that front will stay all snow and get absolutely pasted, often with an area of subsidence between that band and the colder band further northwest.  That pattern is generally poorly modelled, especially by globals. 

As modelled by nearly all guidance, NYC stays on the cold side of this and stays all snow for the highest rates.  A few hours of snizzle at the end doesn't change the forecast all that much, though it means the highest totals might be just N&W.  

What is it that you're arguing exactly? The post I made was to show that the UKMET was not better than 00z for coastal sections as the 850mb low track was nearly identical to previous runs. I wasn't implying that the entire area gets flooded with warm air.

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Question - trying to read models and learn more than just being hobbyist: Some models seem to zero in on MBY (MMU); others say it might sleet, too. Are we close enough to the event for realistic forecasts? 

 

If this is to go into a new/different thread, let me know. Thanks in advance!

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1 minute ago, mike1984 said:

 

Most pros have about 12-16 in NYC.

 

More west and north, less south and east. 

 

Think this is what we will see.

Ok yeah sounds about right. NYC is close but even with these super west models we get a good amount. Thanks for the answers guys, just trying to wrap my head around the totals due to this shift in the last 24 hours. 

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Just now, North and West of Town said:

Question - trying to read models and learn more than just being hobbyist: Some models seem to zero in on MBY (MMU); others say it might sleet, too. Are we close to the event for realistic forecasts? 

 

If this is to go into a new/different thread, let me know. Thanks in advance!

The threat of sleet in that part of NJ is very minimal. Sleet should be confined to the South and East of the NJ TPK until you get South of 195.

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10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Strongly disagree and not one model supports this. 

Please post a single model which supports this position?

cut QPF by 25% and assume a quicker warming in the mid-levels. Models are made by humans and are wrong just as much as they are right.

It's just a gut feeling I have based off of too many years wasting time tracking snow storms. LOL.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong and if you are right I will be the first to commend you and apologize.

But if you can, please point out one snowstorm in NYC history that had a h7 low go from southern PA/western NJ to Albany/western Mass and it snowed 12+" here. (There might be storms in the past; if there are please point out).

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3 minutes ago, North and West of Town said:

Question - trying to read models and learn more than just being hobbyist: Some models seem to zero in on MBY (MMU); others say it might sleet, too. Are we close enough to the event for realistic forecasts? 

 

If this is to go into a new/different thread, let me know. Thanks in advance!

Doubt you see anything but snow in Morristown. Maybe a little sleet or frz for the last hour as precip shuts off

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