The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still wrap around snow 00z Thursday!!!!!! Wow.. never seen a run like this The ECMWF runs for the storm we shall not mention were a bit better than this, but still epic. It's not the slowest thing ive ever seen but pretty darn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Euro was an awesome run, but the northern stream diving in should be watched. If that trend continues and the southern stream loses out, we will see further ticks west towards the GFS. But I think the NYC area can afford some more wiggle room west. Tomorrow night and Sunday's runs are crucial as the systems should finally be over land. Or the GFS moves east and meets up with the Euro and Ukie. GEFS was well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The Euro was an awesome run, but the northern stream diving in should be watched. If that trend continues and the southern stream loses out, we will see further ticks west towards the GFS. But I think the NYC area can afford some more wiggle room west. Tomorrow night and Sunday's runs are crucial as the systems should finally be over land. Great post. Once the shortwave comes on land later tomorrow the computer models resolution will respond and we will get a good handle where this is going. Obviously this has the potential to be an epic storm, but we shall see. The remarkable agreement for a powerful nor'easter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Still wrap around snow 00z Thursday!!!!!! Wow.. never seen a run like this Good work Ulster!! You did good!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GEFS/UKMET/ECMWF are all similar now, if the GFS operational ends up being right then I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: and he's complaining for no reason lol- unless he lives in Montauk or something He always complains. Always negative and pessimistic posts. Sorry for the bickering but some of these people are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 What's the climo on NYC storms past Mar 1st for storms greater than 6 and greater than 12. Isn't there only a couple greater than 12 after Mar 1? If this pans out well, could be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, KeithB said: Good work Ulster!! You did good!!! Ulster gets to do all the future Euro pbps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Kuchera maps will probably show 3 feet What I can tell you is Provincetown went from 51 inches to 7 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: What's the climo on NYC storms past Mar 1st for storms greater than 6 and greater than 12. Isn't there only a couple greater than 12 after Mar 1? If this pans out well, could be historic. The daily records drop off the face of the earth after 3/13. Only one over 5 inches I think after that through 3/31. The odd thing is there is a secondary peak in April with 3 or 4 records over 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This would be a straight firehouse right into NNJ/NEPA, Hudson valley, NYC and surrounding... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The daily records drop off the face of the earth after 3/13. Only one over 5 inches I think after that through 3/31. The odd thing is there is a secondary peak in April with 3 or 4 records over 8 inches Yes those are my favorites! April 1982, 1996 and 2003! I actually like and have more positive experiences with April snow events than I do with March ones lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 This run was very close to the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Ulster gets to do all the future Euro pbps. Yes!...6 more EURO runs until showtime!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This run was very close to the Ukie Ukie was very close to BM at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This would be a straight firehouse right into NNJ/NEPA, Hudson valley, NYC and surrounding... wow If that isn't a historic storm on the Euro then I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: What I can tell you is Provincetown went from 51 inches to 7 lol Lmao. That's priceless!. Someone in Provincetown is probably hanging by a noose right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro takes me from 29" to 50" on the season. Me takey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The other models offer the more classic climo track versus the gfs which may very well still be playing catch-up in terms of how it's handling the phasing. Not saying a coastal hugger won't or can't happen but it's much more unlikely versus the standard noreaster track in previous setups like this. The interior has been getting screwed over the past few years so I'm kinda hoping they score a big one finally. It won't be the end of the world if we get a coastal hugger in mid-March. Maybe if this was Jan-Feb I'd be more upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Euro was an awesome run, but the northern stream diving in should be watched. If that trend continues and the southern stream loses out, we will see further ticks west towards the GFS. But I think the NYC area can afford some more wiggle room west. Tomorrow night and Sunday's runs are crucial as the systems should finally be over land. 2 feet of snow even down the NJ shore! we have around 2 feet or 26" also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, KeithB said: Lmao. That's priceless!. Someone in Provincetown is probably hanging by a noose right about now. If you live and die by one model run you deserve to be hanging from a noose. And they only had 51 on the 15:1 maps Kuchera showed like 40...but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 notice the 2 distinct ULL features, the southern stream was much stronger, it allowed the energy to wrap and form another ULL off shore 12z Compared to the recent 00z, much more northern stream influence diving SE, allows the energy to ride that Negative trough as oppose to wrapping up which pulls the LP west towards the trough... I never like the 2 ULL look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Ukie was very close to BM at 96 Does this one pass right over the Cape on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, KeithB said: Lmao. That's priceless!. Someone in Provincetown is probably hanging by a noose right about now. That deep of a trough is going to slingshot the low due north or close to it at some point. The deeper the northern stream dives down and amplifies the trough, the further west that slingshot happens. If the southern stream can be a little more prominent, the slingshot happens further east. The Euro gave more of a share to the northern stream this run, so the low went west and now goes up through Cape Cod. There should be ticks back and forth from here, but hopefully we're getting done with major shifts on the Euro. Besides its complete fail in Jan 2015, it's usually pretty steady from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: What I can tell you is Provincetown went from 51 inches to 7 lol The dawn awakening slips into a coma lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: notice the 2 distinct ULL features, the southern stream was much stronger, it allowed the energy to wrap and form another ULL off shore 12z Compared to the recent 00z, much more northern stream influence diving SE, allows the energy to ride that Negative trough as oppose to wrapping up which pulls the LP west towards the trough... I never like the 2 ULL look Billy how many hours of snow is it for us on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: That deep of a trough is going to slingshot the low due north or close to it at some point. The deeper the northern stream dives down and amplifies the trough, the further west that slingshot happens. If the southern stream can be a little more prominent, the slingshot happens further east. The Euro gave more of a share to the northern stream this run, so the low went west and now goes up through Cape Cod. There should be ticks back and forth from here, but hopefully we're getting done with major shifts on the Euro. Besides its complete fail in Jan 2015, it's usually pretty steady from here. This is the Euro's Killer range- inside 96 hours (4 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Does this one pass right over the Cape on the Euro? Yeah, it goes right over them, and then north from there into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Yeah, it goes right over them, and then north from there into ME. Thats actually a really good track for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Billy how many hours of snow is it for us on this run? 36hrs on euro... final 4-8 are light wrap around snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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