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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Euro was an awesome run, but the northern stream diving in should be watched. If that trend continues and the southern stream loses out, we will see further ticks west towards the GFS. But I think the NYC area can afford some more wiggle room west. Tomorrow night and Sunday's runs are crucial as the systems should finally be over land. 

Or the GFS moves east and meets up with the Euro and Ukie. GEFS was well east.

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The Euro was an awesome run, but the northern stream diving in should be watched. If that trend continues and the southern stream loses out, we will see further ticks west towards the GFS. But I think the NYC area can afford some more wiggle room west. Tomorrow night and Sunday's runs are crucial as the systems should finally be over land. 

Great post.  Once the shortwave comes on land later tomorrow the computer models resolution will respond and we will get a good handle where this is going.  Obviously this has the potential to be an epic storm, but we shall see.  The remarkable agreement for a powerful nor'easter continues.

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

What's the climo on NYC storms past Mar 1st for storms greater than 6 and greater than 12. Isn't there only a couple greater than 12 after Mar 1? If this pans out well, could be historic.

The daily records drop off the face of the earth after 3/13.  Only one over 5 inches I think after that through 3/31.  The odd thing is there is a secondary peak in April with 3 or 4 records over 8 inches

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The daily records drop off the face of the earth after 3/13.  Only one over 5 inches I think after that through 3/31.  The odd thing is there is a secondary peak in April with 3 or 4 records over 8 inches

Yes those are my favorites!  April 1982, 1996 and 2003!  I actually like and have more positive experiences with April snow events than I do with March ones lol

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The other models offer the more classic climo track versus the gfs which may very well still be playing catch-up in terms of how it's handling the phasing. Not saying a coastal hugger won't or can't happen but it's much more unlikely versus the standard noreaster track in previous setups like this. 

The interior has been getting screwed over the past few years so I'm kinda hoping they score a big one finally. It won't be the end of the world if we get a coastal hugger in mid-March. Maybe if this was Jan-Feb I'd be more upset. 

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Euro was an awesome run, but the northern stream diving in should be watched. If that trend continues and the southern stream loses out, we will see further ticks west towards the GFS. But I think the NYC area can afford some more wiggle room west. Tomorrow night and Sunday's runs are crucial as the systems should finally be over land. 

2 feet of snow even down the NJ shore!  we have around 2 feet or 26" also

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notice the 2 distinct ULL features, the southern stream was much stronger, it allowed the energy to wrap and form another ULL off shore 

 

12z

2a62xk8.jpg

 

 

Compared to the recent 00z, much more northern stream influence diving SE, allows the energy to ride that Negative trough as oppose to wrapping up which pulls the LP west towards the trough... I never like the 2 ULL look 

nx81uu.jpg

 

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Just now, KeithB said:

Lmao. That's priceless!. Someone in Provincetown is probably hanging by a noose right about now.

That deep of a trough is going to slingshot the low due north or close to it at some point. The deeper the northern stream dives down and amplifies the trough, the further west that slingshot happens. If the southern stream can be a little more prominent, the slingshot happens further east. The Euro gave more of a share to the northern stream this run, so the low went west and now goes up through Cape Cod. There should be ticks back and forth from here, but hopefully we're getting done with major shifts on the Euro. Besides its complete fail in Jan 2015, it's usually pretty steady from here.

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

notice the 2 distinct ULL features, the southern stream was much stronger, it allowed the energy to wrap and form another ULL off shore 

 

12z

2a62xk8.jpg

 

 

Compared to the recent 00z, much more northern stream influence diving SE, allows the energy to ride that Negative trough as oppose to wrapping up which pulls the LP west towards the trough... I never like the 2 ULL look 

nx81uu.jpg

 

Billy how many hours of snow is it for us on this run?

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Just now, jm1220 said:

That deep of a trough is going to slingshot the low due north or close to it at some point. The deeper the northern stream dives down and amplifies the trough, the further west that slingshot happens. If the southern stream can be a little more prominent, the slingshot happens further east. The Euro gave more of a share to the northern stream this run, so the low went west and now goes up through Cape Cod. There should be ticks back and forth from here, but hopefully we're getting done with major shifts on the Euro. Besides its complete fail in Jan 2015, it's usually pretty steady from here.

This is the Euro's Killer range- inside 96 hours (4 days)

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