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3/11-3/12 Winter Storm


BornAgain13

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12 minutes ago, jshetley said:

It will show no snow south of HWY 11 in SC and will be right. The GSP metro itself will see all rain and not much of that. Next week is going to be a disaster with this awful return to January. I'm ready  for 70's and 80's and storms.

When you say GSP metro are you including Travelers Rest ?

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30 minutes ago, jshetley said:

It will show no snow south of HWY 11 in SC and will be right. The GSP metro itself will see all rain and not much of that. Next week is going to be a disaster with this awful return to January. I'm ready  for 70's and 80's and storms.

Their potential map already shows 1-2 inches for most of the upstate, which is surprisingly bullish. Next week's cold will only be a disaster if you don't like cold, and many do, even if you don't. As for your 70s, you've had a whole winter of them, so you don't really have room for complaints there. Are you ever positive... about anything?

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I'll take that graphic any day.  For once, the southeast corner of Wake is the sweet spot...usually the NW corner.

The way our setups work, it is usually all or nothing.  The only way we big a big snow is a low tracking so the south and it swings in a ton of warm air...Therefore, gotta have a nice supply of cold air from the north for it to work out...  

 

10-15 years ago, we would get a lot of clipper systems come through...  Those have been few and far between recently...if at all.

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11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'll take that graphic any day.  For once, the southeast corner of Wake is the sweet spot...usually the NW corner.

The way our setups work, it is usually all or nothing.  The only way we big a big snow is a low tracking so the south and it swings in a ton of warm air...Therefore, gotta have a nice supply of cold air from the north for it to work out...  

 

10-15 years ago, we would get a lot of clipper systems come through...  Those have been few and far between recently...if at all.

And the smallest changes can make all the difference. We really don't know until we get to the day it's supposed to hit, and even then sometimes we don't know until it is happening.

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Aftn WPC update after 12z runs...

WEAKENING SYSTEM REACHING THE WA COAST BY 10/1200Z RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND CAROLINAS LATE SUN

19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z UKMET DOES NOT AMPLIFY AS SHARP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT CONTINUES TO BE SLOW OVERALL EVEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DELAYED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF (INCREASING POSITIVE TILT TO NEARLY FLAT) DUE TO INTERACTION/PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL WITHIN THE TN VALLEY TO CAROLINAS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE SHOW SIMILAR TIMING AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER INFLECTION COMPARED TO THE INITIALLY FAVORED 12Z GFS. AS SUCH AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS/S MID-ATLANTIC... A 12Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND SEEMS A MIDDLE GROUND PRESENTATION YET WITH ALL THE MOVING PARTS CONFIDENCE AFTER 11/00Z IS FURTHER DEGRADED TO BELOW AVERAGE.

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10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm trying to figure out whether to go on a Snow Chase this weekend or early next week ? Which is more likely to produce big snows ?

Fly out west to the Rockies.  Don't wast your time with this amateur BS in the southeast.

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I honestly get the feeling we end up with a HECS. Now wheteher that boads well for mby remains to be seen but the foreign guidance is pretty clustered together.

HECSSE* - Historic East Coast Snowstorm somewhere else :/

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

I honestly get the feeling we end up with a HECS. Now wheteher that boads well for mby remains to be seen but the foreign guidance is pretty clustered together.

My opinion is that Tues will be more of a mid Atlantic to NE event....with it mostly missing the SE precip wise (but some in the mtns)....we'll see.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

One of the few times I've ever found myself thinking his totals might turn out a bit low.

I was surprised as well, but I'm thinking he is basing it on the trends.  

Fishel also posted an extensive facebook post and he mentions the event sat/sun looking weaker and weaker.

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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I was surprised as well, but I'm thinking he is basing it on the trends.  

Fishel also posted an extensive facebook post and he mentions the event sat/sun looking weaker and weaker.

It always looks weaker and weaker.  And then, 36-48 hours out, we see improvement.  I'm banking on that happening as part of my assessment.

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