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March med-long range disco thread 2


WxUSAF

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9 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Hahaha. Stouts are my second favorite. ;)  

This outcome for next week is far from set in stone. Swear I said that a few days ago about Sunday....and look how that turned out. :axe:

Technically, it's not, but...I'm telling ya...it's like something has been at work this winter to ensure it doesn't snow here for whatever reason. I mean really, this would be the second time this winter we have one storm miss because of another.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Seems like a sloppy progression... did it miss a phase or something?

 

yes....front running wave develops off coast and then by the time the northern stream closes off, our storm is over...I wouldn't pay too much attention to the details...it is totally bizarre and goofy...but fun...and gives us hope..maps in a min

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24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

After thinking about it for a day I decided to up my weatherbell for 1 more month. I say, 'In for a penny, in for a pound'. For you youngsters that have no idea what that means. It means that after spending all winter chasing crap I might as well see this through till the very end. 

I hope you get every pennys worth. 

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EPS says not to dismiss the Friday storm just quite yet. Slows the storm's progression a touch and this delay is allowing it to strengthen in a much better location for our region. We are also seeing a slight shift south with this low where we now have a 1008mb low sliding through southern MD vs 1012 mb low running through central MD. 

Snowfall means reflect these changes very well as we are seeing a very noticeable uptick in snowfall amounts in Central PA as well as a subsequent shift south into our region. We now see trace amounts reaching into southern MD vs the 12z that had them placed through DC. The half inch line that was running about 20-25 miles south of the MD/PA line has shifted south to where it is just a north of DC. And this is a gradient pattern of increasing totals until you reach the Mason Dixon of which the 2 inch line is just north of it. For those Baltimore members the 1 inch line is just through the northern portions of the city.

For those worrying about how this may effect the Tuesday event a casual glance @ 500mb suggests that there is little to no impact though a more careful look may show otherwise.

 

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EPS mean snowfall otherwise. Very noticeable down-tick with snowfall amounts to the south for the Sunday storm with no change with the heaviest strip.  Looks for the most part a N Carolina event with very little impact north of the VA. line.

For the Tuesday event, of which a look at the stronger surface low suggested might be better, is indeed better and somewhat noticeably so. Has the signature distribution of snow seen with a low that is rapidly intensifying as it slides up off the coastal waters of the eastern shore with the heavier amounts in northeast MD. The gradient of the pattern is from lesser amounts southwest to higher amounts Northeast. We now see Washington firmly within the 5 inch zone. Baltimore for the most part sits within the 6 inch zone and northeast MD now sees 7 inches. Definitely an increase of snowfall from the 12z where DC sees an increase of 2 inches, with ever increasing upticks to the northeast where northeast MD sees an increase of 3 1/2 inches.

As far as the rest of the run there are slight upticks in snowfall scattered throughout but nothing to signify a strong signal for a storm until possibly the end of the run. Final totals for the 15 day period, in a west to east gradient pattern for the most part, show the six inch line just north of DC. 7 inch line just tickling northern Baltimore and the 8 inch line just crossing the Mason Dixon.

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