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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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West tick and best dynamics further southwest... congrats Philly on this run

Still a huge hit region-wide, but definite compromise towards GFS. A little surprised given this OP track seems a little west of ensembles. More ticks west would threaten all-timer status for Boston metro.

Haven't dissected what's happening at H5... whether this really is similar to GFS or is so at the surface just by chance.

 

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The way it looks to me at H5... a huge factor is how quickly the Fujiwara dance takes place...

0z Euro (vs. 12z Euro), the northern stream energy is more prominent and therefore swings the southern stream energy further north earlier and closer... you can see the Fujiwara interaction happens sooner

Also explains why 12z-18z Wed the SLP move almost north into Maine rather than E / NE as it did on the 12z Euro run

 

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