Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March medium/long range disco


psuhoffman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, psuhoffman said:

Weeklies have a really nice pattern week 5-6. -nao and eastern trough. April will be rocking. 

It's a step down process.  But March is looking somewhat better than what we've had so far.  Not saying much as I have turned on the AC in Feb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, paulythegun said:

Differences between EPS and GEFS: The EPS has some brief weak blocking in the atlantic before heights start building again. PNA and AO are also not great on EPS.

GEFS has stronger blocking and holds it through the run though it weakens a bit toward the end. AO stays negative too. GEFS also wants to turn PNA positive. That would be a window, with cold air in place, though nothing much really pops.

A couple of storms pop on EPS, but they're the "trailing low amps up" variety from what I can tell. Based on EPS, I'd say we have a good window for snow starting around the December 20th period. 

Not sure if this is an intentional "Freudian" type of slip, but given how things have gone I'd wager December 20th may well be our next good window for anything wintry, hahaha! :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not saying much with the performance of the models in the longer range but the EPS actually has a pretty good setup around day 10 with some key features on the field at this time. At this point we see a west based -NAO just beginning the process of breaking down which is quite often a precursor with east coast cyclogenesis. A low planted in the 50/50 spot for a couple of days leading into day 10. We have ridging building in the west and though probably too shallow at this point for our tastes we do have an eastern trough but with the 50/50 this might argue we would see more buckling thus a deeper dig with the trough.  Also of interest is that we have the subtropical jet undercutting our region as well as a mid-latitude jet joining the party. The jet setup, though workable probably isn't quite what we want to see yet, with the subtropical running out to sea and the midlatitude just a little to late. But, if in fact we do see more buckle induced by the 50/50, IMO that would probably force the subtropical more up the coast vs. out to sea thus slowing it down somewhat allowing time for the midlatitude to dive in increasing the odds of a possible phase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice analysis!  Showmethesnow 

Here's day 10 Eps...

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

Might be blocky enough to bring a storm up but not enough of a ridge out west to deliver any real cold. Look at the 850 map for that same time.  GFS has been trending that way as well, pretty much limiting any arctic air intrusion to the northern tier.

Edit:  I think that would have been a good map in January but probably not March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Might be blocky enough to bring a storm up but not enough of a ridge out west to deliver any real cold. Look at the 850 map for that same time.  GFS has been trending that way as well, pretty much limiting any arctic air intrusion to the northern tier.

Edit:  I think that would have been a good map in January but probably not March.

IF.... We were to see more buckling induced by the 50/50, which is probably a good possibility, we would see a better delivery of cold with a deeper trough and most likely a corresponding response upstream with better ridging. 

But we are talking day 10 so to even worry about temps, besides knowing that they we have serviceable cold in the general region, is pointless. Besides, give it a run or two and this look will probably disappear anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

IF.... We were to see more buckling induced by the 50/50, which is probably a good possibility, we would see a better delivery of cold with a deeper trough and most likely a corresponding response upstream with better ridging. 

But we are talking day 10 so to even worry about temps, besides knowing that they we have serviceable cold in the general region, is pointless. Besides, give it a run or two and this look will probably disappear anyway.

I think the period just beyond that might be better. Centered on March 8. Still have lower heights in the 50-50 position, block above it, and more amplitude in the PNA ridge. Gets colder air into our region. Of course it could very well be a dry cold shot. IMO March 7-10 is a window to watch, until it isn't..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think the period just beyond that might be better. Centered on March 8. Still have lower heights in the 50-50 position, block above it, and more amplitude in the PNA ridge. Gets colder air into our region. Of course it could very well be a dry cold shot. IMO March 7-10 is a window to watch, until it isn't..

Think we are pretty much talking the same window of opportunity. When I mention day 10 I am referring more so to the setup presenting the beginning of a window opening for a couple/few days. How long that window stays open or whether it even exists come game time is another story.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think we are pretty much talking the same window of opportunity. When I mention day 10 I am referring more so to the setup presenting the beginning of a window opening for a couple/few days. How long that window stays open or whether it even exists come game time is another story.

 

I actually meant to reply to WinterWxLuvr's post concerning lack of cold due to a relatively flat western ridge.

But yeah I think that period holds some promise, although we need to start seeing some signals for storminess on the ensembles. Been some faint ones here and there but nothing solid yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

really busy today but quick thoughts before the 12z stuff comes in.  The trend towards really nice north atlantic blocking in only about 5 days could shift things in our favor.  That is something we have lacked all winter, we have had higher heights up there but not a true west based block at any point.  This looks legit and its in a believable time range on all the guidance.  

However, the fact that even with such a feature, we are struggling to get anything to stay under us, to me, is a sign of just how hostile the underlying pattern is.  Go take a look at the 144 hour H5 over North America.  Beautiful.  But the ground truth on most of the runs is less then inspiring.  Now I am NOT saying give up, the models are notorious for getting the surface wrong and shift to a better result if the H5 setup is good.  But I am not going to ignore the fact that several times this year we had a setup that SHOULD have had better results then it did.  I was guilty at times of assuming, early on, that if we could just fix this, or change that, things would get better.  But the last month the H5 hasn't been that awful and at times was good, yet we had very little to show for it even in the way of cold.  We blow torched right through 2 MJO cold phase waves, one of record strength, a -AO, a -NAO, and a PNA ridge.  Yea we could point to each and say "this one detail was bad" but come on how often is EVERY freaking index and pattern driver going to line up perfect.  IF we need EVERYTHING to go exactly text book perfect to get a decent chance then the reality is were just screwed and something that is very hostile is overridding the individual pattern drivers and skewing the pattern warm.  Could be a lag effect hemispherically from the super nino skewing things warm.  Combined with QBO and a bad sst pattern in the pacific and the warm atlantic...  those are my guesses.  

Perhaps this time with such an uber block setting up, and in march the NAO is an even stronger telleconnection, we can overcome whatever it is.  But the thing that sticks out right now is even with a darn good pattern overall, its like pulling teeth to get a vort to track under us and amplify.  Yea its just model output and it could easily be wrong, but just the fact that getting any runs to show something good even in a good setup is so difficult to me highlights the issue.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

really busy today but quick thoughts before the 12z stuff comes in.  The trend towards really nice north atlantic blocking in only about 5 days could shift things in our favor.  That is something we have lacked all winter, we have had higher heights up there but not a true west based block at any point.  This looks legit and its in a believable time range on all the guidance.  

However, the fact that even with such a feature, we are struggling to get anything to stay under us, to me, is a sign of just how hostile the underlying pattern is.  Go take a look at the 144 hour H5 over North America.  Beautiful.  But the ground truth on most of the runs is less then inspiring.  Now I am NOT saying give up, the models are notorious for getting the surface wrong and shift to a better result if the H5 setup is good.  But I am not going to ignore the fact that several times this year we had a setup that SHOULD have had better results then it did.  I was guilty at times of assuming, early on, that if we could just fix this, or change that, things would get better.  But the last month the H5 hasn't been that awful and at times was good, yet we had very little to show for it even in the way of cold.  We blow torched right through 2 MJO cold phase waves, one of record strength, a -AO, a -NAO, and a PNA ridge.  Yea we could point to each and say "this one detail was bad" but come on how often is EVERY freaking index and pattern driver going to line up perfect.  IF we need EVERYTHING to go exactly text book perfect to get a decent chance then the reality is were just screwed and something that is very hostile is overridding the individual pattern drivers and skewing the pattern warm.  Could be a lag effect hemispherically from the super nino skewing things warm.  Combined with QBO and a bad sst pattern in the pacific and the warm atlantic...  those are my guesses.  

Perhaps this time with such an uber block setting up, and in march the NAO is an even stronger telleconnection, we can overcome whatever it is.  But the thing that sticks out right now is even with a darn good pattern overall, its like pulling teeth to get a vort to track under us and amplify.  Yea its just model output and it could easily be wrong, but just the fact that getting any runs to show something good even in a good setup is so difficult to me highlights the issue.  


12z gfs looks horrendous

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Ji said:


12z gfs looks horrendous

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

The system ejecting out of the west around 277 would be the one to watch.  Of course the GFS squashes it totally and then seems ready to amplify the NEXT wave which is coming along as the trough is relaxing such that it can run north of us.  Its close though so its not an awful run.  A minor change and it could have been a hit.  BUT..  Again, another solution, and yet another bad result despite a pretty good overall pattern setup.  That has been the theme a few times this year.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The system ejecting out of the west around 277 would be the one to watch.  Of course the GFS squashes it totally and then seems ready to amplify the NEXT wave which is coming along as the trough is relaxing such that it can run north of us.  Its close though so its not an awful run.  A minor change and it could have been a hit.  BUT..  Again, another solution, and yet another bad result despite a pretty good overall pattern setup.  That has been the theme a few times this year.  

i know its just one run but not one system passed south of us

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Ji said:


12z gfs looks horrendous

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

yes... the end of the op run looks like today almost.  just not as torchy with a system cutting west.  different look same outcome. but Canada is wicked cold it appears.  that's a start

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The system ejecting out of the west around 277 would be the one to watch.  Of course the GFS squashes it totally and then seems ready to amplify the NEXT wave which is coming along as the trough is relaxing such that it can run north of us.  Its close though so its not an awful run.  A minor change and it could have been a hit.  BUT..  Again, another solution, and yet another bad result despite a pretty good overall pattern setup.  That has been the theme a few times this year.  

More than a few times! When's the last time we had a year where absolutely no LR threats panned out even with a good setup? That's bad even for here: Even here we can score 1 out of 5 decent setups during even our worst winters! Now granted, the only real chances we've had have been this month, but even so!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The blocking continues to build stronger each run of the ensembles.  GEFS is a beauty up top.  The 6-10 period is trending colder, interesting to see if that continues.  The day 9 system still looks to track north of us but if things continue to adjust south due to the blocking perhaps that changes.  Again its almost amazing the eastern ridge can push back at all in that time given what is going on to our north.  After that I think we might get a real window day 10-15.  The GEFS really digs the trough into the east but its way too far out to get into details but the blocking is relaxing and there is cold entrenched and that is a typical good combo to work with.  Yes were fighting the sun angle and all that jazz by then but we will see.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It makes little difference where a low passes if there's no cold air.  Sure, there's cold in Canada but it seems to me the models are trending toward keeping that from penetrating very far south.

AM I looking at different things then everyone else?  The day 5-10 period was supposed to be a super torch eastern ridge just 48 hours ago.  That period has trended much colder as the blocking has come faster and stronger each run.  But its still not where we need it.  The cold day 10-15 is still there and that was when the guidance had it getting cold and it still does, at least the stuff I am looking at.  Are people looking at the 5-10 day period and confusing that with the cold shot that is coming after?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It makes little difference where a low passes if there's no cold air.  Sure, there's cold in Canada but it seems to me the models are trending toward keeping that from penetrating very far south.

This is what I am talking about...these are for the same time, first from 72 hours ago and the second from today.  The blocking is trending stronger each run and the temperature profile over the eastern CONUS is responding and trending colder each tun.  The day 5-10 period is still low probability for us as the boundary still seems a bit north of where we need it but its certainly not the torch it was looking like a few days ago.  The day 10-15 period cold shot is still there and that was the one that was showing up at the very end of day 16 on the ensembles a few days ago....now its around day 11-13 moving closer in time.  The first period may continue to trend colder and then we might have a shot, the second period day 10 on might be our real shot.  

before1.png

after1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

AM I looking at different things then everyone else?  The day 5-10 period was supposed to be a super torch eastern ridge just 48 hours ago.  That period has trended much colder as the blocking has come faster and stronger each run.  But its still not where we need it.  The cold day 10-15 is still there and that was when the guidance had it getting cold and it still does, at least the stuff I am looking at.  Are people looking at the 5-10 day period and confusing that with the cold shot that is coming after?

No your good. Except for a transient day and a half warm shot around day 9/10 it looks to have below normal 850's from day 6 on through day 16.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF locked and unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...