Yeoman Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 10 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This is the surface temp anomalies. If this isnt good enough from 10+ days out, then honestly it would NEVER snow in March. This is a pretty cold signal for that range. pipe dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: pipe dream Probably, I've stated I'm bearish on snow for now, but the point was the signal is plenty cold enough given an ensemble mean at that range. Whether the implied pattern verifies is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 00 UT NAEFS shows cold and dry from the 3rd through 5th followed by a brief warm up and rain. Cold again from the 7th through 10th followed by a return to seasonal temperatures coinciding with the climatological end of the snow season for central Maryland/northern Virginia. 06 UT GFS shows 516 thicknesses, a clipper, and rain/snow Friday afternoon (March 3) with temperatures near 40. Post-frontal rain/snow showers and 40ish temperatures also look possible on the 6th. The return to seasonal temperatures on the 10th could include a Miller A type system and rain or snow - will "winter" go out as a lion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: 00 UT NAEFS shows cold and dry from the 3rd through 5th followed by a brief warm up and rain. Cold again from the 7th through 10th followed by a return to seasonal temperatures coinciding with the climatological end of the snow season for central Maryland/northern Virginia. 06 UT GFS shows 516 thicknesses, a clipper, and rain/snow Friday afternoon (March 3) with temperatures near 40. Post-frontal rain/snow showers and 40ish temperatures also look possible on the 6th. The return to seasonal temperatures on the 10th could include a Miller A type system and rain or snow - will "winter" go out as a lion? Saw that too. Best LR look I've seen this year on the op run. Strap in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 There is a pretty nice vort dropping down for next Friday/Saturday on the last 2 runs of the GFS. Looks like some potential for digging a bit more. h5 looks beautiful at that time but if this stays weak as currently depicted it would probably be non accumulating snow or rain/snow. Something to keep an eye on. Would be nice to kick off this period of potential with a decent clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 The advertised NA look is pretty classic from day 7 forward. This is a true block, with low pressure (low h5 heights) over/north of the Canadian Maritimes locked in under the ridging over GL. This is the kind of look that gets me excited. Having a low trucking northward as it passes through the 50-50 position is often useless, and also means there is no block. We see that a lot with transient NA ridging, and it is difficult to take advantage of outside of perfect timing. Looks like we may have something more sustained and legit this time. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This is the vort I think you're referring to and it's close to being something decent as you said. Yeah its semi interesting and something to track inside of a week lol. It sort of kicks off what looks to be an 8-10 day period where there is some potential with a really nice NA and a +PNA, before things break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Late season clippers can be dynamic but slp track to the south is requirement. Overhead won't do it like prime climo can. Things keep looking more favorable in general as we move forward in time. Would be sorta comical after a disasterous winter to have our best stretch of BN departures and favorable snow pattern to happen when we are typically in the process of closing the blinds for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Late season clippers can be dynamic but slp track to the south is requirement. Overhead won't do it like prime climo can. Things keep looking more favorable in general as we move forward in time. Would be sorta comical after a disasterous winter to have our best stretch of BN departures and favorable snow pattern to happen when we are typically in the process of closing the blinds for the year. If there was ever a year for that it would be this one. Give me a good week of cold and snow chances and I will happily smell the flowers in late March. Just 1 week of winter is all I will ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Late season clippers can be dynamic but slp track to the south is requirement. Overhead won't do it like prime climo can. Things keep looking more favorable in general as we move forward in time. Would be sorta comical after a disasterous winter to have our best stretch of BN departures and favorable snow pattern to happen when we are typically in the process of closing the blinds for the year. Yeah I keep thinking how nice this would potentially be if it wasn't a month late. It is what it is, nothing to lose now. As for clippers tracking to our south this time of year, I agree it is a must. Good news is that should be doable if the advertised heights up north verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Late season clippers can be dynamic but slp track to the south is requirement. Overhead won't do it like prime climo can. Things keep looking more favorable in general as we move forward in time. Would be sorta comical after a disasterous winter to have our best stretch of BN departures and favorable snow pattern to happen when we are typically in the process of closing the blinds for the year. It will be a system shock for sure when it gets colder. Many are in spring mode and acting like it's April already. But I suppose from the analogs this shouldn't be a huge shock. Three of the top years had the snowiest periods in march, 1984, 1999, & 2009. Actually all 3 had barely any snow before then. If we had lucked into a couple 1-3" events we would basically be in an identical spot right now. There was a very limited set of decent analogs to this year so it's hard to draw any conclusions but there is enough evidence to suggest a cold snowy end is possible. Looking at this pattern specifically it has trended better and better. I know a week ago we were talking about how some common sense minor tweaks to the long range guidance and we could easily see a cold period. The hints were there. Now the question is will it produce. My only overly critical issue would be the trough digs in a big east of my liking. But in march that can work. Vorts need less room. Plus the shorter wavelengths could help blunt the effects of the raging PAC jet allowing things to slow and dig. Perhaps it makes sense that in similar seasons what little snow came was late. Hindsight is 20/20, live and learn. I know next time I see a raging west qbo during a cold or neutral enso with colder water centered in the central PAC unless we have that crazy north PAC warm pool that saved us in 2014 I'll say "uh oh". Hopefully we get a late save and avoid the total fail. Go from an F to a D winter. We're still out of range for details but hopefully over the next 2-3 days guidance can bring a legit specific threat into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Not a fan of the changes on the 12gefs. The blocking is still there but it's much less impressive with digging the trough in the east. Should wait for all the 12z guidance to see if it's just a one run hiccup but first bad run after 3 days of steady improvements. Hard not to take any little negative as a bad sign given the year we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not a fan of the changes on the 12gefs. The blocking is still there but it's much less impressive with digging the trough in the east. Should wait for all the 12z guidance to see if it's just a one run hiccup but first bad run after 3 days of steady improvements. Hard not to take any little negative as a bad sign given the year we have had. This would be about the time for things to go south. Despite our enthusiasm the seasonal trend has been decent to awful in the ensembles. Then awful verifies. If this fails then we are really done. Yes it can snow after mid March but you know the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not a fan of the changes on the 12gefs. The blocking is still there but it's much less impressive with digging the trough in the east. Should wait for all the 12z guidance to see if it's just a one run hiccup but first bad run after 3 days of steady improvements. Hard not to take any little negative as a bad sign given the year we have had. The spoiler to getting results from an otherwise good pattern here generally continues to be the ePac, specifically the ridge/trough positions near AK. Have to see how this plays out but this looks like at least a small step in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 00z Euro 12Z GFS and 12z GGEM sucks. A couple more 48hr cold snaps and we're done. PNA is just not cooperating for any extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: 00z Euro 12Z GFS and 12z GGEM sucks. A couple more 48hr cold snaps and we're done. PNA is just not cooperating for any extended period of time. You think the 0z EPS sucked? Not sure why you are putting so much stock in op runs for the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Yes the 12z guidance has been a letdown so far but let's not overreact yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: You think the 0z EPS sucked? Not sure why you are putting so much stock in op runs for the LR. I want to see a storm, not just a block at this point. It's go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes the 12z guidance has been a letdown so far but let's not overreact yet. Us...overreact? Never. We are always calm. Of course most of us are dead from jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: I want to see a storm, not just a block at this point. It's go big or go home. There are still a couple of chances on the 12z GFS. This window with potential (at least as I see it) is really only about 7 days or so, beginning late next week. Beyond the 12th the block and any ridging out west breaks down on the ensembles. At that point we are near mid March and fighting climo big time, even if the pattern does quickly become more favorable again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There are still a couple of chances on the 12z GFS. This window with potential (at least as I see it) is really only about 7 days or so, beginning late next week. Beyond the 12th the block and any ridging out west breaks down on the ensembles. At that point we are near mid March and fighting climo big time, even if the pattern does quickly become more favorable again. ECMWF looks a lot like the GFS through day 7. The blocking over Siberia is making it very hard to sustain a good PNA pattern. And if the PV gets displaced into the E GAK, forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Amped said: ECMWF looks a lot like the GFS through day 7. The blocking over Siberia is making it very hard to sustain a good PNA pattern. And if the PV gets displaced into the E GAK, forget about it. Wow. This day is going down hill quick. Optimism fades quickly around here. It would be sad to see this potential go down the crapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 9 minutes ago, Amped said: ECMWF looks a lot like the GFS through day 7. The blocking over Siberia is making it very hard to sustain a good PNA pattern. And if the PV gets displaced into the E GAK, forget about it. Much stronger ridging over GL and Davis Strait on the 12z Euro compared to 0z at day 9. Monster block. Keeps the PV from being displaced towards AK. PNA ridge more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Wow. This day is going down hill quick. Optimism fades quickly around here. It would be sad to see this potential go down the crapper emwf actually has a better chance DAY 9 with a less amped pattern and a front right near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 So there we go. 12z slide halted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Plenty of potential towards the end of the 12 Euro run. That is one hellacious block. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Plenty of potential towards the end of the 12 Euro run. That is one hellacious block. Wow. Nice. You are awesome. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nice. You are awesome. Thank you lol thanks. Its one op run, and its almost too much of a good thing, but it likely wont end up as advertised. Kind of awesome to see though. So classic with a vortex(50-50 low) which seems to enhance the ridging over GL, then cut off and get stuck under it for days. The other thing that massive block does is help keep the PV in place, and not allow it to move into AK. PNA ridge pops. Positioning is not ideal but the general idea is there and at least one of the models at 12z stepped it up instead of going the other way. Lets see what the 12z EPS looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Plenty of potential towards the end of the 12 Euro run. That is one hellacious block. Wow. It is a beauty but the trough response over the eastern us is pretty pathetic considering. It holds potential for sure just disappointing that given such extreme blocking all we can get is a very small area of somewhat low heights in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Comparing 12z EPS with 0z, subtle differences at h5. NA looks pretty much the same. Some slight differences wrt to the AK trough, an overall flatter ridge in the western US, and the trough is not as deep (or cold) in the east days 9-12. Similar to the GEFS, a small step back. Not a trend..yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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