Anti tornado Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 33 minutes ago, andyhb said: Thanks for the input. VBV, cap, questionable prefrontal trough, etc... from a strictly tornado potential perspective, the threat is low. I think they maintain the enhanced for hail and wind and that's it. Tornado: 5% hail: 30% wind: 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Anti tornado said: VBV, cap, questionable prefrontal trough, etc... from a strictly tornado potential perspective, the threat is low. I think they maintain the enhanced for hail and wind and that's it. The enhanced was never for tornadoes in the first place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: The enhanced was never for tornadoes in the first place... I realize that. Just people (myself included) in this thread seemed to be hyping tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Just now, Anti tornado said: I realize that. Just people (myself included) in this thread seemed to be hyping tornado threat. Hyping? Yeah because people are saying "tornado outbreak tomorrow". Come on man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Anti tornado said: I realize that. Just people (myself included) in this thread seemed to be hyping tornado threat. The most people here have said is a highly conditional small tornado threat before the front. Nobody is talking about the outbreak to end all outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The most people here have said is a highly conditional small tornado threat before the front. Nobody is talking about the outbreak to end all outbreaks. Coming from a guy who, 90% of the time, post 0 analysis. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Anti tornado said: Coming from a guy who, 90% of the time, post 0 analysis. Lol Pot calling the kettle black here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Upper Level LOL said: Pot calling the kettle black here... I've been on this board for less than 2 weeks. I will post more in depth as situations warrant it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm in N Illinois right now. Just a taste of what can occur tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 The warning in Cass IA is really something. Not too often you see surface temp of 34 and svr hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Enhanced Risk for all of Northwest Ohio... 5% tornado, 30% wind, 15% hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 I'm seeing a 0.75" hail report and a blizzard conditions report on the same radar screen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Anti tornado said: I realize that. Just people (myself included) in this thread seemed to be hyping tornado threat. 1 hour ago, Anti tornado said: Coming from a guy who, 90% of the time, post 0 analysis. Lol 1 hour ago, Anti tornado said: I've been on this board for less than 2 weeks. I will post more in depth as situations warrant it I would cool it if I were you, coming in here guns ablazing isn't going to go over well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 30 minutes ago, Sidewinder said: The warning in Cass IA is really something. Not too often you see surface temp of 34 and svr hail. A few years back there was an anafrontal event in the plains and parts of Nebraska were getting hail with temps in the 20s, one of the strangest events I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Just woke up to insane hail - to the point that the street needs a plow. Prolific lightning. Nuts for late Feb. If these lapse rates here now are shifting east tomorrow (well, today), should be interesting. Add a little more shear to the mix.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Copious amounts of hail here. It definitely neared quarters when it first started. Couldn't walk out and grab some because of how heavy it became within seconds. I attached the 00z DVN sounding. Look at the amount of shear there is, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Excellent discussion by DTX this morning, pretty much highlights everything for this afternoon. Departure of the morning convection will precede the arrival of the surface low and warm front early enough to not impact model depictions of the surface features too much. Surface pressure falls ahead of the low and along the warm front appear reasonable given strong difluent southwest flow aloft up against the cold Great Lakes aggregate. This will no doubt affect the precise effective position of the warm front that afternoon surface observational trends will help to pin down but remains in the neighborhood of model depictions. The other larger scale features driving severe weather potential are also being clarified by upstream observational trends. Upstream 00Z soundings and hourly mesoanalysis indicate the broad and strong EML that is projected to move northward with the system during the day punctuated by lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer near 9.0 C/km. Surface observations in the mid to upper 50s are also shown in the warm sector of the system that will be carried northward into the Great Lakes by evening. This is expected to result in more than adequate instability for thunderstorms in such a strongly forced synoptic environment. A surface parcel of 65/58 will be capable of 0-1km MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, enough to produce convection potent enough to withstand and be organized by the strong wind profile within the warm sector and along the cold front. Assuming initiation is after 21Z, then it will be close enough for discrete cell organization to move into SE Michigan by early evening. Updrafts will have a chance to be enhanced by rotation which will make large hail a concern due to freezing level only around 10000 ft along with tornadogenesis in strong right-movers in the warm sector or along the warm front. Initiation time is currently the main source of uncertainty. There are some mesoscale model solutions clustering around earlier timing in prefrontal fashion followed by a second round of storms along the cold front that would be more prone to linear modes and damaging straight line wind. The tendency for the warm sector to remain capped under the EML favors a lean toward later initiation while keeping in mind the former is a plausible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Healthy little line around Benton Harbor with some quarter size hail riding along the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 FWIW - veer back veer profiles in simulations have exhibited mixed results. A recent study didn't find any real negative effects from veer back profiles, so unsure what it really means for tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 I guess Reed saw my target forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Full sun with only a few stray clouds here. Appears to be the case consistently along the IN/OH state line according to satellite. Originally morning clouds were supposed to be somewhat of a wrinkle, but as of now that does not seem to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Yea I've got plenty of sun right now. Currently 63 and dew point is 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Suns out here now, yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Interesting.The SPC seems to favor more of the triple point and WF area over the warm sector and any pre-frontal trough action. CAM's somewhat support this notion, although areas around Ft. Wayne look pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 hour ago, KokomoWX said: I guess Reed saw my target forecast. Well I guess that means multiple "wedge" tornadoes today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 We're getting a pretty significant break in the clouds already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 Measured dew point of 60 in Cincinnati Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Instability looks to be game on, clearing over much of the enhanced region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 DTX update... 000 FXUS63 KDTX 241559 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1059 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .UPDATE... Early day forecast update mainly to provide some additional temporal detail in terms of fog/stratus reduction, thermal trends and eventual emergence of a solid non-convective uptick in wind gusts as the warm sector surges in. FYI...DTX will be doing a special 21z RAOB Well-defined warm frontal boundary now arcing from near Kalamazoo/Battle Creak to just north of Toledo. Solid wing of elevated convection anchored within a zone of 700-850 mb ascent now racing through the north half of the forecast area, should clear the thumb by 18z. Attention then shifts to both the thermodynamic and kinematic adjustment as the warm front begins to surge steadily north/northeast through the afternoon period. Warm sector immediately upstream defined by mid 50s dewpoints, with a corresponding increase in mixed layer depth translating into gusts into the 30 knot range. This well defined elevated mixed layer arriving coincident with the overall advective process, establishing a solid cap for the early-mid afternoon period locally. During this time, combination of daytime heating and warm/moist advection will at least establish a modestly unstable low level environment /MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/KG/. Convective potential remains the most tenuous to define between roughly 21z and 01z. Lead pre- frontal trough or slightly elevated frontal boundary to accelerate eastward out ahead of the primary cold frontal zone during this time. Weak returns now noted emerging across far eastern IL/west-central IL evidence of this ascent and the sizable increase in mid level lapse rates. Outstanding question locally remains too what degree does this ascent help overcome and/or weaken the existing cap. Within a background of tremendous deep layer and low level shear parameters /particularly along the warm frontal interface/... potential is there for a quickly evolving lower coverage of discreet/supercellular structures. With that said, capped warm sector environment may prove an adequate limiting factor, effectively stunting greater cell growth/organization until the front sweeps through 01z-05z. Extremely conditional environment, one that latest hi res guidance continues to struggle in handling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Only minor changes to the new Day One, it expanded the Enhanced west a smidge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.