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Anti tornado

Feb 24-25th Severe Weather

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ECMWF and GFS are in general agreement with time, place, and strength of a strong(ish) low during the Feb 24-25th timeframe. 12z GFS showed a 992 low over SW Minnesota... 12z ECMWF had a 983 low over NE Nebraska. 0z GFS shifted more towards the ECMWF with a 985 low over SE Nebraska. 

The 3 day trend for the GFS has been to strength the system. 

 

Thoughts?

 

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Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 12.53.13 AM.png

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Your name is anti-tornado and you're making a thread about severe weather?  lol

8-9 days out, so that's a very long time for things to change, but it appears like our moisture source will be ready to go in advance of whatever ejects out... i.e. a lack of a Gulf scouring cold front in the days prior.  

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Your name is anti-tornado and you're making a thread about severe weather?  lol

8-9 days out, so that's a very long time for things to change, but it appears like our moisture source will be ready to go in advance of whatever ejects out... i.e. a lack of a Gulf scouring cold front in the days prior.  

The Gulf gets scoured out with the cutoff beforehand, if it didn't this would be one hell of a potential. That said since it is slowing down a bit, there is a chance of recovery from the Gulf before this system which the GFS shows more so than the Euro.

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41 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Gulf gets scoured out with the cutoff beforehand, if it didn't this would be one hell of a potential. That said since it is slowing down a bit, there is a chance of recovery from the Gulf before this system which the GFS shows more so than the Euro.

12z GFS shows poorer moisture return. Take it the cutoff off the SE coast will scour moisture?  

 

12z vs 0z GFS

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Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 1.17.42 PM.png

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11 minutes ago, Anti tornado said:

12z GFS shows poorer moisture return. Take it the cutoff off the SE coast will scour moisture?  

 

12z vs 0z GFS

Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 1.17.52 PM.png

Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 1.17.42 PM.png

Yes and it is stronger this run, blocking any return flow.

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55 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The Gulf gets scoured out with the cutoff beforehand, if it didn't this would be one hell of a potential. That said since it is slowing down a bit, there is a chance of recovery from the Gulf before this system which the GFS shows more so than the Euro.

Maybe semantics but I wouldn't call it a real scouring.  Certainly don't have a deep arctic plunge right before.  That cutoff doesn't help as far as getting 100% optimal moisture return but there's still 55-60 degree dews hanging around OK/AR in advance of the system of interest.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe semantics but I wouldn't call it a real scouring.  Certainly don't have a deep arctic plunge right before.  That cutoff doesn't help as far as getting 100% optimal moisture return but there's still 55-60 degree dews hanging around OK/AR in advance of the system of interest.

If the low wasn't there, you could add 10 degrees to those dew points, 65-70 dews would make this a huge event.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

If the low wasn't there, you could add 10 degrees to those dew points, 65-70 dews would make this a huge event.

I'd be calling my momma if we had dews like that lol

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd be calling my momma if we had dews like that lol

I mean for OK/AR, though without the Gulf getting crushed, I could see low to mid 60s getting up here because of a long duration return flow. Either way we are talking fantasy as the cutoff screws that potential.

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20 hours ago, Stebo said:

I mean for OK/AR, though without the Gulf getting crushed, I could see low to mid 60s getting up here because of a long duration return flow. Either way we are talking fantasy as the cutoff screws that potential.

Another thing is the fairly quick occlusion currently being depicted.  Northward moisture advection would take a hit with that.  Maybe we could get away with some semblance of a cutoff if it doesn't linger too long but it would be hard to overcome both of those.

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Yeah, that cutoff low really ruins what would easily be a 2 or 3 day event otherwise, starting west in the plains.

 

Unless this system slows down in future model runs, instability will be hard to come by.

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12z Euro has a 979 low over the Midwest.

still has a 1000 cutoff low in the SE. 

 

18z gfs still has that pesky low as well. 

 

Had I known the SE cutoff played such an impact, I wouldn't have posted. 

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5 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's just crazy that we have a severe weather thread 7 days out in February and none for even a snow event. 

Getting interesting. Mid to high 50 dew points. Cutoff low further off shore

IMG_6579.PNG

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Yeah, if this thing slows down and maintains intensity in subsequent model runs things will get really interesting in parts of the Midwest.

 

sfctd.conus.png

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2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Yeah, if this thing slows down and maintains intensity in subsequent model runs things will get really interesting in parts of the Midwest.

With the strong omega block depicted via water vapor imagery I don' think a quicker solution is in the cards.  A Cutter is likely into the western great lakes.  Some where from the Dakotas to Eastern MN, Western WI  could see a notable snowfall event.  Notice I am not saying historical yet......  Eastern MN and western MN is a part of this sub forum, if we get what i think is possible with the track, the south eastern sub forum could be well under the gun for severe. 

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While the severe prospects look good, the onset of rain to snow has me really questioning my plans for this timeframe. Still on the fringes of dream land but this system has been very consistant from way out.

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Some favorable steps on the GFS since yesterday's 12z run.  The southern cutoff is less impressive and the main system is being handled a bit differently, with a delayed occlusion process.  Still needs some work and whether the trend continues or reverses remains to be seen.

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17 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's just crazy that we have a severe weather thread 7 days out in February and none for even a snow event. 

The pacific killed everyone's winter outside the lake belt. Virtually nobody outside of Maine has really picked up anything significant. 

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Some favorable steps on the GFS since yesterday's 12z run.  The southern cutoff is less impressive and the main system is being handled a bit differently, with a delayed occlusion process.  Still needs some work and whether the trend continues or reverses remains to be seen.

I noticed with the cutoff that a good portion of the energy is picked up with the trough and lifted north, still there is some that ends up in a cutoff but it isn't as large or strong and weakens as it moves toward Florida, that is a very positive change.

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Yep, things are slowly progressing for next Thursday/Friday, but I still wish we didn't have low pressure meandering in the Gulf prior to the event.  On the positive side it doesn't take all that much moisture or surface CAPE this time of year to get an event of interest.

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The 00z GFS again took a favorable step.

Arguably close to something pretty significant.


Agreed. Cutoff in south is effectively gone


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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This is a heck of a lot of mid level cooling here shown by the 00z GFS if it were to verify. Would be possible to pull enough instability out of upper 50s dewpoints for a fairly substantial threat with this, but this is 156 hrs out and there is a lot with that slow-moving southern closed low/cutoff that needs to be resolved before looking at anything further really. Obviously if that scours out the moisture as other posters have highlighted above, this thing is dead in the water before it even gets to short range. Degree of occlusion of this system itself as it rolls out beyond the Continental Divide will also play a big role.

500th.conus.png

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12 minutes ago, andyhb said:

This is a heck of a lot of mid level cooling here shown by the 00z GFS if it were to verify. Would be possible to pull enough instability out of upper 50s dewpoints for a fairly substantial threat with this, but this is 156 hrs out and there is a lot with that slow-moving southern closed low/cutoff that needs to be resolved before looking at anything further really. Obviously if that scours out the moisture as other posters have highlighted above, this thing is dead in the water before it even gets to short range. Degree of occlusion of this system itself as it rolls out beyond the Continental Divide will also play a big role.

500th.conus.png

GFS has some fairly healthy mid level lapse rates (>7 C/km), which would help the CAPE profiles.  

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1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

12Z GFS got the warm sector further north, 60s further into Michigan, something to watch.

Something that I noticed last night...the last dozen or so runs have a large spread in terms of placement with low. Think models are struggling 

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