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CoastalWx

Sunday SWFE..Monday Coastal?

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Just now, db306 said:

A really noob question here but in terms of rain/snow line what temps are best to look at?  925, 850, or 700's or comb of all?

 

 

An entire sounding is best...but if you're being restricted to 2D maps...then yeah I'd go 850 first, followed closely by 925 (925 will be especially important near the coast...usually inland, if 850 is cold enough, then 925 is gonna be cold enough), and then 700 last...700 is usually cold enough for snow in close-call situations, so you don't need to check the temps there. If you start getting into the details like ratios, then it becomes more useful.

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2 minutes ago, db306 said:

A really noob question here but in terms of rain/snow line what temps are best to look at?  925, 850, or 700's or comb of all?

 

All of them.  

925 below freezing with heavy rates and all other levels below freezing should be snow regardless of what the 2-meter temps say.  

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

An entire sounding is best...but if you're being restricted to 2D maps...then yeah I'd go 850 first, followed closely by 925 (925 will be especially important near the coast...usually inland, if 850 is cold enough, then 925 is gonna be cold enough), and then 700 last...700 is usually cold enough for snow in close-call situations, so you don't need to check the temps there. If you start getting into the details like ratios, then it becomes more useful.

Awesome and thanks.  I'm sure its much more complicated than that but just trying to get a general feeling looking at model maps of where that line generally sets up.  Thanks again!!

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

An entire sounding is best...but if you're being restricted to 2D maps...then yeah I'd go 850 first, followed closely by 925 (925 will be especially important near the coast...usually inland, if 850 is cold enough, then 925 is gonna be cold enough), and then 700 last...700 is usually cold enough for snow in close-call situations, so you don't need to check the temps there. If you start getting into the details like ratios, then it becomes more useful.

Speaking of ratios, outside of the 128 corridor, are we looking at classic 10:1 in SNE?

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On  Big coastal Monday?

Yes...absolutely...keeps trending worse.

That is what I meant....not the swfe.

OK, what model shows that 

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16 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

I remember back to the days of Bruce Schwoegler on channel 4 Boston (I was a kid back then) and there seemed to be two magical routes you wanted to be OUTSIDE of, Rt 128 and Rt 495. Worcester was far enough to pretty much guarantee a big snowstorm (sometimes with a little sleet mixed in at the height) and snow day from school. In those days I don't remember any of the cold mega storms we've gotten in the last 20 years or so. They were always that heavy, wet stuff.

Anyhow, a good memory, and if it verifies, here's to you Bruce!

I hear you on that, honestly I was always jealous of how "north and west of 495...higher elevations of northern worcester county...look out!"....half the reason I moved out here lol, I was tired of getting rained on. 

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8 minutes ago, BRSno said:

Any chance this trends colder for BOS? 

Unless somehow the winds stayed more north at Boston thanks to that meso low cold tuck. The problem I see is that once winds go northeast, the area of mid 30s temps comes in. There isn't a real supply of cold air. This could be something where just inland is near 32 and gets pasted while the beaches rain. By inland...maybe several miles. Kind of has that look. 

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2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I hear you on that, honestly I was always jealous of how "north and west of 495...higher elevations of northern worcester county...look out!"....half the reason I moved out here lol, I was tired of getting rained on. 

No, you fell for the Schwoegler snow squalls that never happened. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

OK, what model shows that 

I think what Ray is getting at is that since the 12z run of yesterday's Euro, the piece he's really interested in has ticked later and further in the subsequent two runs, so if one follows the trend under the assumption that it shall continue (not unlike the way that solutions for yesterday seemingly marched in continuous improvement approaching the first flakes), by the time we hit midday Sunday, he will have resigned himself to finding ways for Thursday to fail him.

But I could be wrong!

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Unless somehow the winds stayed more north at Boston thanks to that meso low cold tuck. The problem I see is that once winds go northeast, the area of mid 30s temps comes in. There isn't a real supply of cold air. This could be something where just inland is near 32 and gets pasted while the beaches rain. By inland...maybe several miles. Kind of has that look. 

Scooter trashing his basement in anger as reports of heavy wet snow on the other side of the Pru tunnel reach the obs thread.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The EURO and GFS have bee trending more progressive with the trough...not sure what you are smoking.

Little bday cheeba??

Lol.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter trashing his basement in anger as reports of heavy wet snow on the other side of the Pru tunnel reach the obs thread.

I almost threw myself in front of the T-Bus when you told me that. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter trashing his basement in anger as reports of heavy wet snow on the other side of the Pru tunnel reach the obs thread.

But i could see MQE like 31-32 and getting pasted. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I almost threw myself in front of the T-Bus when you told me that. 

The consolation for those right ont he coast is that there could be a decent period of snow Monday morning there. Hopefully it doesn't miss east...but there could be a nice period of steady snow with falling temps.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The EURO and GFS have bee trending more progressive with the trough...not sure what you are smoking.

Little bday cheeba??

Hmm looks like a 992 LP south of New England bombing out in the GOMAINE to me. Where's this SWFE? I don't see any primary to your west.  You get .4 qpf in initial  WSA then .8 from bombing low at the canal

 How hard is it possible 

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