dryslot Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Only took all of summer for some semblance of a SE ridge to show up but now it shall remain the rest of fall and winter? The only worry i would have is in the Bering sea region where we all know can be problematic at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 2011-12? That was awful in BTV...only had some moments in the upslope hamlets of the Greens. More of a mesoscale fluke than actually being good across the northern tier...because it sucked in NH/ME too. I'd say the winters that were good up north but pretty dodgy/crummy down south were in descending chronological order: 2006-2007 (extreme backloaded obviously, but much of NNE managed above average snow while basically nobody south of central NE saw normal or better) 1973-1974 (more of a NW to SE gradient...as it sucked in Maine too and it sucked in SNE while was very good in N VT) 1953-1954 (more like average in NNE but horrendous down in SNE) You can see they aren't very common though. Usually when NNE cleans up, CNE/SNE are not getting completely screwed...either they are also cleaning up or at least holding their own around average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was awful in BTV...only had some moments in the upslope hamlets of the Greens. More of a mesoscale fluke than actually being good across the northern tier...because it sucked in NH/ME too. I'd say the winters that were good up north but pretty dodgy/crummy down south were in descending chronological order: 2006-2007 (extreme backloaded obviously, but much of NNE managed above average snow while basically nobody south of central NE saw normal or better) 1973-1974 (more of a NW to SE gradient...as it sucked in Maine too and it sucked in SNE while was very good in N VT) 1953-1954 (more like average in NNE but horrendous down in SNE) You can see they aren't very common though. Usually when NNE cleans up, CNE/SNE are not getting completely screwed...either they are also cleaning up or at least holding their own around average. One Nina in that group right? And 2006-07 (robust Niño) had an element of bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 45 minutes ago, dryslot said: Only took all of summer for some semblance of a SE ridge to show up but now it shall remain the rest of fall and winter? The only worry i would have is in the Bering sea region where we all know can be problematic at times. Sounds like you are guaranteeing a cold and snowy winter, too. Lock it up- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: One Nina in that group right? And 2006-07 (robust Niño) had an element of bad luck. I wouldn't call that nino robust.....it was moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't call that nino robust.....it was moderate. Wasn't it high end moderate which to me is robust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Wasn't it high end moderate which to me is robust? .9 trimonthly peak, so it could actually be argued that it was weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: .9 trimonthly peak, so it could actually be argued that it was weak. Wow I am out to lunch there! Either way-certainly not a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Wow I am out to lunch there! Either way-certainly not a Nina. Good example of why strength isn't everything, either.....east-based structure nuked us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sounds like you are guaranteeing a cold and snowy winter, too. Lock it up- Eh, To early for that right now but i would not go lower then an avg one here, There is nothing to support not having at least that ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Eh, To early for that right now but i would not go lower then an avg one here right now, There is nothing to support not having at least that ATM. Apparently pointing out a dearth of evidence in support of someone else's claim is equivalent to issuing an outlook to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Apparently pointing out a dearth of evidence in support of someone else's claim is equivalent to issuing an outlook to the contrary. To some it is, Yes, Seems like things get taken out of context or adjusted to support or counter ones thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 I would have a hard time convincing myself to forecast a warm and snow less winter up here...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Every winter will be normal or above with frequent snows. Many days of snow no matter what the globe is tellling us Heavy heavy snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Just nickels and dimes. If you set that as your expectation you will be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Whoa easy there...no need to be a hero. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: BTV north Dammit we are screwed. I was hoping north of RUT-VSF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Has there ever been a winter that was good from BTV north and ratted to the south? There has to be winters where southern Canada did well and New England didn't. That type of St Lawerance Valley track winter. Basically look at above normal snow in Montreal and see if any were crappy at Boston. 2006-07 comes to mind. There has to be others that were good in Montreal and poor in Boston/PVD/BDL. 2011-12 was poor snow year in these areas BUT not as bad as it was elsewhere. 90" here vs 120" type average in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Kevin, below how much snow do you consider it a ratter for yby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: There has to be winters where southern Canada did well and New England didn't. That type of St Lawerance Valley track winter. Didn't the North Shore and points north do better in 2015-16? I know CAR came in at 80%+, not all that good but way ahead of the 30-50% stuff in the mid-latitude parts of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: Didn't the North Shore and points north do better in 2015-16? I know CAR came in at 80%+, not all that good but way ahead of the 30-50% stuff in the mid-latitude parts of NNE. That's right...I don't know how the totals were up north but they had a bunch of big storms that winter north of the Saint Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Kevin, below how much snow do you consider it a ratter for yby? Under 40” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Under 40” Mine is under 30. Too easy to get 34-57 with little difference imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Mine is under 30. Too easy to get 34-57 with little difference imho. And honestly I think the biggest problem is going to be lack of precip. I.e.. dry winter with storm track into Midwest .. If we somehow manage a few coastals then maybe it’s salvageable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: There has to be winters where southern Canada did well and New England didn't. That type of St Lawerance Valley track winter. Basically look at above normal snow in Montreal and see if any were crappy at Boston. 2006-07 comes to mind. There has to be others that were good in Montreal and poor in Boston/PVD/BDL. 2011-12 was poor snow year in these areas BUT not as bad as it was elsewhere. 90" here vs 120" type average in town. Rarer than I thought actually...hard to find big winters in NNE while SNE had a total ratter. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4638692 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Under 40” Yup, same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Just nickels and dimes. If you set that as your expectation you will be OK. So you're saying every storm will be 5-10 inches??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Rarer than I thought actually...hard to find big winters in NNE while SNE had a total ratter. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4638692 I think 1972-73 was headed in that direction, but it died in NNE after a very snowy Dec, while remaining awful farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 If you haven't forecasted a dead ratter over the past three seasons, then you've done well. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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