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30 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Congrats Minneapolis on the Euro for next week.  Let's see if we can get that storm to trend further west over about Montana so we can hit 70 degrees and bust out the jeans shorts and hackey sack...

That arctic air and southwest flow that follows. I would 100% take that.

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Continuing to dink and dunk here, we have seen at least a trace of snow for 7 consecutive days, amounting somewhere between 10"-12"..Measured just under 5" this morning which obviously doesn't take into account compaction which probably wasted another inch or two..

IMG_0447.PNG

5" OTG on Jan 31 is anything BUT normal in Fulton, NY!!

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3 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Congrats Minneapolis on the Euro for next week.  Let's see if we can get that storm to trend further west over about Montana so we can hit 70 degrees and bust out the jeans shorts and hackey sack...

I'd agree with that.  After a pretty lousy January (unless you live on the right 50 acre radius on the Tug) and the return of a decent looking pattern there was at least hope for a solid feb and march.  Another gullywasher would be disappointing.  This winter hasn't been as bad as the last one overall...but we've really had a lack of snow cover that's not dissimilar from last winter (again, unless you are on that 50 acre plot on the Tug Hill bullseye/snow magnet). ;)

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I don't believe we see a system cut up West YET, as the new 18Z already shifted East from KCHI to KCZLE, lol!  Lets see what happens at 00Z as I've been watching this system for a few days now as it was progged to come up and redevelop until the recent 2 run debacle so we'll see what happens as their's too much time left to worry bout a cutter next Tuesday!

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2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I don't believe we see a system cut up West YET, as the new 18Z already shifted East from KCHI to KCZLE, lol!  Lets see what happens at 00Z as I've been watching this system for a few days now as it was progged to come up and redevelop until the recent 2 run debacle so we'll see what happens as their's too much time left to worry bout a cutter next Tuesday!

I've got a week long snowboarding trip to the Adirondacks and Vt starting on Sunday. The last two runs have been absolutely crushing to my hopes for next week.  The next 0z run and 12z run tomorrow will be critical.  The development of that low off of BC looks a bit unusual though, so I'm hoping there is a lot of wiggle room in regards to downstream impacts.  

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The new 00Z has a 6 hr period of warmth as we get into the warm sector for a few hrs then its right back into the deep freeze with heavy LE.  I'm talking about the system that caused the melt down on the board, from a cutter progged 7 days out which, IMO, is idiotic especially taken at face value, which is quite evident as the last 2 model suites went back East dramatically!  I still think a system jumps the Rockies and a cyclone begins to take shape around the 4 corners and hooks to the E/NE and as it gets into the ORV she redeveloped's along the EC!  I seriously doubt a system tales shape along the MOntana Idaho border then heads SE, then suddenly turns the corner towards the central Great Lakes.  I call bull****, just my take but I may and probably will be wrong, lol!  Its just an analogous situation that I don't think anyone can find a suitable analog to match the development of a system like the last couple of runs the GFS has shown!

As I always say, We'll see!

Anyway, it's snowing at a pretty good clip attm and it looks like we still have several hrs left of snow!!

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9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The new 00Z has a 6 hr period of warmth as we get into the warm sector for a few hrs then its right back into the deep freeze with heavy LE.  I'm talking about the system that caused the melt down on the board, from a cutter progged 7 days out which, IMO, is idiotic especially taken at face value, which is quite evident as the last 2 model suites went back East dramatically!  I still think a system jumps the Rockies and a cyclone begins to take shape around the 4 corners and hooks to the E/NE and as it gets into the ORV she redeveloped's along the EC!  I seriously doubt a system tales shape along the MOntana Idaho border then heads SE, then suddenly turns the corner towards the central Great Lakes.  I call bull****, just my take but I may and probably will be wrong, lol!  Its just an analogous situation that I don't think anyone can find a suitable analog to match the development of a system like the last couple of runs the GFS has shown!

As I always say, We'll see!

Anyway, it's snowing at a pretty good clip attm and it looks like we still have several hrs left of snow!!

The New England forum had some great stuff in there today. ^_^ I don't understand how someone gets so affected by the weather. It seems to control the day to day feelings/mood of some on these forums. It is what it is to me.

Latest Euro shows 1 day at 40-45 and than the PV pays a visit.

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The New England forum had some great stuff in there today. ^_^ I don't understand how someone gets so affected by the weather. It seems to control the day to day feelings/mood of some on these forums. It is what it is to me.

Latest Euro shows 1 day at 40-45 and than the PV pays a visit.

Especially 7 days out is just plain stupid and the way the EURO has been behaving lately, I wouldn't take it at face value if I was paid to.  Its NOT the GURU it once was but even then, it was a lock within 4 days not 7!!

If we can manage a pre dump to a mix to some rain then back to snow with a PV visit with LE on a WNW/NW flow of brutally cold air.  I'll tale it!

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Would someone explain how the 0Z GFS operational run verifies or shows the sharply negative EPO which is occurring/progged for this first week in Feb? I'm just not seeing it (maybe it's starting to pick up on it with the eastward shift). My assumption is that if the EPO is strongly negative, this would factor against the cutter scenario.

Thanks.

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10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I've got a week long snowboarding trip to the Adirondacks and Vt starting on Sunday. The last two runs have been absolutely crushing to my hopes for next week.  The next 0z run and 12z run tomorrow will be critical.  The development of that low off of BC looks a bit unusual though, so I'm hoping there is a lot of wiggle room in regards to downstream impacts.  

I feel your pain.

We leave for Stowe/Bolton tonight.

I was feeling crabby about how cold it gets Friday/Saturday because it's rough on my young kids.  

Then I looked ahead to next week and I realized I had nothing to complain about!

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band off the Tug is amazing. Looks to go for days and days. I expect totals of 3-4'

Yeah, that's a beauty up on the Tug right now.  Pretty wild that they have a lake snow warning until tomorrow morning, immediately followed by a lake snow watch tomorrow afternoon into Saturday.  Looks like the Tug is getting its own little "atmospheric river" event like they've been getting out West, courtesy of L. Ontario.  Too bad the poster from VA (SWVA I think) isn't up in Redfield this week.  Would be nice to get some live reports.  

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27 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I'll be checking this site frequently over the next few days: http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm 

The "RedField" cam is showing 3' on the ground already.  Let's see if they can double that...

Warnings are now up for Thu-Sat PM. Mesonet has some good cams too! Almost to 4' at the Redfield site http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=REDF

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2 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Yeah, that's a beauty up on the Tug right now.  Pretty wild that they have a lake snow warning until tomorrow morning, immediately followed by a lake snow watch tomorrow afternoon into Saturday.  Looks like the Tug is getting its own little "atmospheric river" event like they've been getting out West, courtesy of L. Ontario.  Too bad the poster from VA (SWVA I think) isn't up in Redfield this week.  Would be nice to get some live reports.  

I am always watching even from VA.  I used to have a cabin in Redfield and would zoom up there when these events were on the way.  Unfortunately we sold it and only get to go once a year.  Wish I were there now too!

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9 hours ago, vortmax said:

Would someone explain how the 0Z GFS operational run verifies or shows the sharply negative EPO which is occurring/progged for this first week in Feb? I'm just not seeing it (maybe it's starting to pick up on it with the eastward shift). My assumption is that if the EPO is strongly negative, this would factor against the cutter scenario.

Thanks.

Bumping this for some input...

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