STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Weird Euro run...warmer at 18h but colder at 24h than previous runs...it looks like maybe dynamics are a bit weaker at 18h so that is likely the cause...system maybe a little slower too. ML's or surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: ML's or surface MLs...sfc looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: smells like pelt fest or almost ZR Still really cant tell the extent of the warm layer, I can only see 700 and its a hair warmer @ 12z. Yet 6z looked comparable, someone with better access will have to fill in the details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sfc over interior is colder...might need to worry about some ZR if the elevated warm layer gets too big. Kev prays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm still leaning toward a scalping for most of interior MA and probably S NH S of MHT. But it's admittedly very close. I think so much is going to depend on how well organized the lift is when it rolls through the region tonight. If it's a nice large organized slab of deep layer lift, then we'll probably be able to flip a lot of folks to pounding aggregates for several hours...but if it's a bit choppy/banded with the best being limited to right near the coast/CF, then I think it will be very difficult to sustain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm still leaning toward a scalping for most of interior MA and probably S NH S of MHT. But it's admittedly very close. I think so much is going to depend on how well organized the lift is when it rolls through the region tonight. If it's a nice large organized slab of deep layer lift, then we'll probably be able to flip a lot of folks to pounding aggregates for several hours...but if it's a bit choppy/banded witht he best being limited to right near the coast/CF, then I think it will be very difficult to sustain snow. I agree definitely leaning toward more sleet. Its close enough that I could see it going eitherway, but I'm expecting a scalping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Kev prays Pound down 1-2 of sleet then hopefully at least .25 accretion with cold surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm still leaning toward a scalping for most of interior MA and probably S NH S of MHT. But it's admittedly very close. I think so much is going to depend on how well organized the lift is when it rolls through the region tonight. If it's a nice large organized slab of deep layer lift, then we'll probably be able to flip a lot of folks to pounding aggregates for several hours...but if it's a bit choppy/banded with the best being limited to right near the coast/CF, then I think it will be very difficult to sustain snow. Yeah. We never seem to get into the constant sustained deep lift in the Merrimack Valley and I don't see tonight as being an exception. If the radar is even a little bit shredded it's a pelletfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 It's so frustrating to only get 850 and 700 mb data from the ECMWF. A lot is going on between those layers. But it does look like WeatherBell gets 25 mb increments. Still most of the warmth looks like it's after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's so frustrating to only get 850 and 700 mb data from the ECMWF. A lot is going on between those layers. But it does look like WeatherBell gets 25 mb increments. Still most of the warmth looks like it's after 12z. heck uva ice storm painted SNH up through interior foothills by the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 28 minutes ago, dryslot said: Thats a lot more qpf up here on the 12z Euro. test the Genny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: heck uva ice storm painted SNH up through interior foothills by the Euro Looks more like a scalping to me than ZR up there. Maybe some ZR later in the storm but the heaviest stuff looks like it has too deep of a cold layer for big icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Euro looks decent for ENY folks. Also looks like it keeps 2m temps here around freezing for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 My call for my area (KFIT out through Templeton, Gardner, Hubbardston, Westminster, etc) - N ORH County 1-3" snow 1-2" PL 0.1" ZR A bit of rain at the end Dicey, tenuous....not fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Are we looking at significant sleet and frzra for the ORH 190 corridor tonight before 8 or 9 PM? Gotta travel that way and it won't be fun if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks more like a scalping to me than ZR up there. Maybe some ZR later in the storm but the heaviest stuff looks like it has too deep of a cold layer for big icing. Seems like too thin and weak of a warm layer to me for alot of ZR to me. Nam is the most aggressive with it and still looks like sleet to me. Euro is pretty cold tomorrow so theyll likely be some lighter glazing. Maybe a small area can optimize things and get a bit more further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks more like a scalping to me than ZR up there. Maybe some ZR later in the storm but the heaviest stuff looks like it has too deep of a cold layer for big icing. Don't know what Maue uses for his FRZRN algo and cross sections are not out but there seems to be a warmer thick 750-800 layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: heck uva ice storm painted SNH up through interior foothills by the Euro Ice is south of 90..Mostly sleet CT border north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't know what Maue uses for his FRZRN algo and cross sections are not out but there seems to be a warmer thick 750-800 layer. Yeah I'd toss the precip algorithms...if we're looking at several thousand feet of well below freezing air, it's gonna be a peltfest. You typically want a warm layer of at least 3-4C during the heavy precip, and even that might not be enough if the cold layer is very deep...you'd want it more like 7C or 8C. Don't think I've ever seen big icing around New England when you have 850 temps around 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ice is south of 90..Mostly sleet CT border north link? and on the Euro sleet might be fleeting wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd toss the precip algorithms...if we're looking at several thousand feet of well below freezing air, it's gonna be a peltfest. You typically want a warm layer of at least 3-4C during the heavy precip, and even that might not be enough if the cold layer is very deep...you'd want it more like 7C or 8C. Don't think I've ever seen big icing around New England when you have 850 temps around 0C. sleet fest then, Euro is colder at the surface in CNE but warmer south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Seems like too thin and weak of a warm layer to me for alot of ZR to me. Nam is the most aggressive with it and still looks like sleet to me. Euro is pretty cold tomorrow so theyll likely be some lighter glazing. Maybe a small area can optimize things and get a bit more further south Yeah I agree..see my above response to ginxy....but you basically say the same thing here. I think we'll need to see the models be way too cold in the 850-950 region in order to get big icing....but I'm not really seeing why that would happen. If anything I'd expect models to probably undersell the cold below 850mb...maybe if they under estimate the warm tongue at 750-800 by several degrees there could be a bit more icing. Still don't think it would be big enough though for legit ice storm warning type criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: link? and on the Euro sleet might be fleeting wagons north The meso analysis post you posted earlier this morning. Put away the models . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 That's a huge and cold layer 850 and below on the soundings and it won't go anywhere soon during the overnight. I'd lean scalping too over ZR in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 It's near -10C near MHT right now at 840mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The meso analysis post you posted earlier this morning. Put away the models . whats your temp? You might get pelted but NW Hills are favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks more like a scalping to me than ZR up there. Maybe some ZR later in the storm but the heaviest stuff looks like it has too deep of a cold layer for big icing. That's the way I'm leaning too. The real deep warm air doesn't arrive until pretty late tomorrow, even on the NAM. Though the ski resorts might get a good glaze being father aloft to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Poking around the GFS omega forecast at different stations and it is spotty. Weak lift in some areas and sniffing ozone in others. I don't think it can resolve exactly where the best lift sets up but that tells me it's likely to be a banding heavy, shredded rad type of storm. I'm getting less optimistic the more I look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's the way I'm leaning too. The real deep warm air doesn't arrive until pretty late tomorrow, even on the NAM. Though the ski resorts might get a good glaze being father aloft to begin with. you see the 80 Knots wind in the GOM on the Euro near the islands? yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, DomNH said: Poking around the GFS omega forecast at different stations and it is spotty. Weak lift in some areas and sniffing ozone in others. I don't think it can resolve exactly where the best lift sets up but that tells me it's likely to be a banding heavy, shredded rad type of storm. I'm getting less optimistic the more I look. 92 lite qpf distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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