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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You guys ever doubt you'll get slammed from a coastal storm these days? 

lol

These days?  ... hmm, so so.  I lived the 1980s though.. I moved from Michigan in 1984 and was struggling to hold my self up against the gale of stories over these so called Nor'easters.. only to watch storm after storm after storm ... nick the Cape or whiff out to sea. 

So relative to era I suppose... There were a couple of good ones though.. In 1986 the "SYZYGY storm", ... one in 1985 when I lived up on Rockport... I don't think there were any other big ones... The Cape got exceptionally lucky in 1987 with blizzards that were supposed to be back west by faded seaward like ...with 10 minutes left to disappoint doe-eye fledging Mets. 

Then the 1990s came and they were handing out coastals like coupons at Walmart ...

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Some believe the trough into the Great Lakes area is too positively tilted, actually the upper level low is digging SSEward now SEward, so we have that amplifying the upper level flow ahead of the upper level low and the southern stream is amplifying as well allowing the southern stream disturbance to race eastward before slowing down as it reaches a negative tilt near the TN Valley.  This should allow 18"+ in localized regions across SE MA, including the Cape and Islands.

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9 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I can't believe there is no WWA here. I hope the evening crew sees the trends and puts one up.

it's completely normal and protocol.

these forecast philosophies are built upon many multiple cycle trends and different confidence intervals there in ..there's no way to enter in a couple quick turn around trend cycles and have it reflect in that process on a dime.  It's completely within the standard of technology and method -  trust us ... if this is all still trending at 00z ...06z ...by dawn, you'll see warnings celebratory all the way to Orange massachusetts...

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

it's completely normal and protocol.

these forecast philosophies are built upon many multiple cycle trends and different confidence intervals there in ..there's no way to enter in a couple quick turn around trend cycles and have it reflect in that process on a dime.  It's completely within the standard of technology and method -  trust us ... if this is all still trending at 00z ...06z ...by dawn, you'll see warnings celebratory all the way to Orange massachusetts...

Lol, I mean even before the 18z cycle I thought there was enough evidence to have an advisory here but maybe we are/were a little too close to the fringes. I didn't see the Euro so I'm not sure what that looked like. If it looked something like the 12z GFS then I can see why they didn't put up an advisory.

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Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

Lol, I mean even before the 18z cycle I thought there was enough evidence to have an advisory here but maybe we are/were a little too close to the fringes. I didn't see the Euro so I'm not sure what that looked like. If it looked something like the 12z GFS then I can see why they didn't put up an advisory.

The EURO was much better than the GFS.

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6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I would bet money that if 00Z holds or comes west more...the WSWs (winter weather products) will all come very west across CT to cover the whole state except N. litchfield.

You think a warning all the way up here? Only if the 3 km NAM verified. But yeah, let's get another tick west at 00z. :snowman:

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

These days?  ... hmm, so so.  I lived the 1980s though.. I moved from Michigan in 1984 and was struggling to hold my self up against the gale of stories over these so called Nor'easters.. only to watch storm after storm after storm ... nick the Cape or whiff out to sea. 

So relative to era I suppose... There were a couple of good ones though.. In 1986 the "SYZYGY storm", ... one in 1985 when I lived up on Rockport... I don't think there were any other big ones... The Cape got exceptionally lucky in 1987 with blizzards that were supposed to be back west by faded seaward like ...with 10 minutes left to disappoint doe-eye fledging Mets. 

Then the 1990s came and they were handing out coastals like coupons at Walmart ...

LMAO!!

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37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ugh.  Stupid naming of storms to increase clicks

James, where on the Cape do you think gets the most?

This.

Here's the ZFP for GC

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. Cold with highs around 20. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening...then clearing. Lows around 8 above. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
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9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Tip, is the surface pressures correct with the 1010mb low in the central GOM?  If so this storm is stronger than modeled.

James .. are you seriously asking me to confirm the barometric pressure over the open waters of the abyssal plain of the Gulf of Mexico ? 

 

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11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I would bet money that if 00Z holds or comes west more...the WSWs (winter weather products) will all come very west across CT to cover the whole state except N. litchfield.

Don't forget to leave out Tolland ...but yeah -

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