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Wave 1, 1/5-6/17 Discussion/OBS


dmillz25

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9 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I would never forecast 20 to 1 

 

I only  forecasted 15 to 1 

 

I saw 3 inches in C/N and said hey that`s 3 to 5 - I did not know he was in the 1 to 2 area 

At least at KJFK, I see 15:1 ratios are reasonable. Column looks to support strong snow growth. My only concern is how well it will stick to a warm ground given recent temps.

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5 minutes ago, friedmators said:

6 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members have 10"+ for Newark,NJ.  12Z yesterday only had 2. 

Until i see more consistency from the models i am hesitant to go higher than 1-3. The ceiling for this in my opinion is 3-6 from West to East if the stars align. 10" is off the table IMO, no models are spitting out that much QPF for Wave 1.

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Just now, psv88 said:

Until i see more consistency from the models i am hesitant to go higher than 1-3. The ceiling for this in my opinion is 3-6 from West to East if the stars align. 10" is off the table IMO, no models are spitting out that much QPF for Wave 1.

I dont disagree.  I was talking about wave 2. The placement of the first low should help the models with the second I would think.

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

At least at KJFK, I see 15:1 ratios are reasonable. Column looks to support strong snow growth. My only concern is how well it will stick to a warm ground given recent temps.

This has been debunked over and over and over again. Warm ground days before a snow event have little bearing on accumulations. What matters is the temp during the storm and snowfall rates.

Plus, we still have an extremely low sun angle. 

The snow will stick, as temps will be in the 20's and the snow will start before dawn.

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

At least at KJFK, I see 15:1 ratios are reasonable. Column looks to support strong snow growth. My only concern is how well it will stick to a warm ground given recent temps.

If and only if the LP gets close to KJFK or the entire island.

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Just now, Metsfan said:

If and only if the LP gets close to KJFK or the entire island.

Not really...the placement of the LP has nothing to do with snow ratios...it has to do with the temperature of the column where snow growth occurs.. Moreover, often the best forcing and rates are far removed from the LP, especially in such a poorly organized system as this.

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Just briefly looking at the 12km 18z nam, out to hour 45, looks better total wise, but that's with a 10:1 ratio. Can't say for sure what rest run will look like though. 

 

EDIT: and looking at total accumulation out to hour, 57 increased north/west, though doesn't look too really help NYC out yet.

 

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2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Just briefly looking at the 12km 18z nam, out to hour 45, looks better total wise, but that's with a 10:1 ratio. Can't say for sure what rest run will look like though. 

 

It looks pretty nice for the area. 2-3 with perhaps more on Long Island. .25+ for the metro 

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

A beauty. NAM'd! 12k isn't close to this.

 

No it`s half . Not sure if this is a weenie model , I want to wait to see the RGEM . But the GFS has .3 in CNJ and LI after nothing 12 hours ago , so want to see if a high ratio event can bring .5 to the area .

 

It`s close 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Legit question, what is the deal with the NAM Para? Is it going to replace the NAM? Does it supposedly have higher verification scores than the regular NAM?

 

I believe so . I haven`t seen the ver score  but during the WAA event in Dec the 12k/4k  had 3 to 4 on LI this had 6 . So it was overdone .

I want to see if others come close .

 

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5 minutes ago, Animal said:

I was thinking of heading to Atlantic City for the event. May need to head to red bank.

30-1 snow ratios per accu tank

 

I will take 15 to 1 and run . The PARA actually forms a deformation band . Maybe the high res models will see that too. 

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