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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1

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6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

if the cold air to the north can beat the lp in the south it could be a good now storm its the one the gfs is playing around with.

Yeah, everything seems to be aligning on this one,if you believe the indicies and that's a big if! But being inside of 10 days, I think grit said this could easily shift South in the next few days of runs! 

CR- awesome gifs, as usual! Hopefully they stay positive and we don't have to replace any with the train crashing into the side of the mountain or atom bomb , or dumpster fire gifs!!

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Ensemble is finally getting somewhere at the end of the run now:

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png

Always at the end!! I don't think I've seen so many goods on one of your maps! That's a lot of goods to get rain!

Side note: JB is about to lose his load because NYC is going to get a good snow ! 4-10"! They will finally pass Portland OR, for seasonal snowfall!

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8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Just to add onto what CR said...looking at the 12-16 5h mean is impressive at this lead.  (-EPO/-AO/-NAO)  When was the last time we had something like that.

Come on Mack, JB isn't always wrong, PH8/strat will lead us.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

I'm all in! What else do we have to look forward , spring?? It's already here! I'm just ready for them to actually verify or bring more than 2 days of cold! Everybody says its the " fast flow" that's messing us up, among other things, we need blocking! Well here's the blocking, supposedly, now show me the money!

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Go with the warmest one.  It works out best this year.

Euro wants to push the ridge east quicker and thus the ULL in the SW comes out sooner and thus rain.  We need the ridge to hold tight, allow the cold air to funnel in and then low to come out.  I would go with the quicker ridge breakdown too, that's been then theme too.  But, if this falls apart we are now looking closer to March for the next chance and let's face it, for places like ours that doesn't seem likely with our avg temps approaching 60F.  For the mountains/elevation areas they have more time. 

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12 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Let's see who wins....GEFS has a more stable PNA ridge that does connect to a -EPO and EPS wants a more progressive ridge and thus a crap setup.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_37.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like the EPS doesn't buy the blocking that the GEFS has, and the PV gets strung out as a result of this. Keep an eye on the indices as we approach verification time. The blocking in the Atlantic will determine how this pattern unfolds. It's time for the GEFS to get one right for a change.

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2 hours ago, JoshM said:

At least it feels more like a normal winter, with a good ole apps runner. Northeast cleans up pretty good with it. Cold air at our door step by day 10, seems to have been delayed some (shocking, I know).

gfs_T2ma_eus_41.png

Awesome ! All the planets and stars align,and we come out smelling like Uranus! :(

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