Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, FLweather said: I hate doing it. Really do. I'm the Grinch before Christmas. But given the setup.... Not as a new episode of what the models show. But given the setup. Hope you don't have your hopes up too high. Climo is against you and just about every model run possible depicting this setup. I truly hope I'm wrong hope you see token flakes. But I give you about 10% chance of seeing the first glaze or flake. Sorry. Even though we are being shown a suppressed pattern. We are not dealing with a very potent shortwave that caused Feb 08?? I think it was 08. Supper suppressed pattern and strong sw diving through south AL GA SC. In all honestly it is perfectly fine, I am not getting my hopes up (I was grateful for that snow shower I got two weeks ago) but I have no choice but to monitor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ridging out west is taller. Could that mean a further south diving and stronger system down the road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro keying on diff waves each run. It has a good damming setup with the weak wave moving in. It has light snow from CLT to RDU and NW with a mix well down into GA on evening of Dec 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 At 144, freezing rain deep into SC and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: At 144, freezing rain deep into SC and GA. She's cranking up! that indicates a stronger CAD, which is good all around... and when you mean deep how far down you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: At 144, freezing rain deep into SC and GA. She's cranking up! So you have all three models now with something inside of 7 days, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Baby steps guys. Great to see the Euro coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It's basically a weak slider that has decent precip and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Beautiful damn, I get stuck with ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I’ll take what the euro is showing all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm currently in Michigan where I have seen zilch in the past week (may get a decent clipper Christmas Eve). I'm slated to fly back to Charlotte on the 30th and move in to my new apartment on the 31st. It would be deeply ironic if I end up stuck in Michigan with a cold, dry pattern while the SE cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: that indicates a stronger CAD, which is good all around... and when you mean deep how far down you referring to? Down into central SC. Blah, a weak wave, moves in an entire day faster and exits faster. 2-5" N NC into VA higher totals in SE VA. Another run, another totally different EURO solution. GFS steady as she goes. Doesn't mean either is right or wrong but meh. Goodnight folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Next wave diving in on Euro on similar trajectory. Looks like it is going to be another wintry one on Dec 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I’ll take what the euro is showing all day long. When Jonathan is mad, we're happy and vice versa, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Some significant differences in the modeling, but ALL show wintry weather in the SE in the next 5-7 days. Not bad, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: When Jonathan is mad, we're happy and vice versa, lol I can't help but to root for the three day mega-storm on the GFS If you guys are gonna get hit, get hit good! Don't settle for a measley 5"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 28th is a full blown ice storm for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: I can't help but to root for the three day mega-storm on the GFS If you guys are gonna get hit, get hit good! Don't settle for a measley 5"! I hear ya. We have to settle for less down here though. Comes with the territory, no biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 That next storm on Euro is a good hit for VA to close out the year. Mix and snow in N and NW NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It’s starting to remind me a little of January 2000 with the triple threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: I hear ya. We have to settle for less down here though. Comes with the territory, no biggie Well if we're getting 2 systems, I'm willing to split with you CLT-RAH guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The Euro seems a lot more realistic to me than the GFS...much more akin to what one would expect with this pattern. Very rarely does one actually see 3 day storms like the GFS is depicting...when it's all said and done, this is likely a relatively weak southern slider. Moderate ice storm in GA/SC. Light to moderate snow event in most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Both storms really fire up late as they're moving away. Eastern VA gets buried through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: that indicates a stronger CAD, which is good all around... and when you mean deep how far down you referring to? 0z Euro. Simulated radar shows precip over these cold surface temps. Sub 32 but temps aloft are warm. No snow in sight. Freezing rain but CAD is broken on Euro. But the 32 line makes it near ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: The Euro seems a lot more realistic to me than the GFS...much more akin to what one would expect with this pattern. Very rarely does one actually see 3 day storms like the GFS is depicting...when it's all said and done, this is likely a relatively weak southern slider. Moderate ice storm in GA/SC. Light to moderate snow event in most of NC. I agree, GFS is amped too much imo. It’s backed down a good bit from being a cutter as it is and I expect it to slowly adjust. Euro CAD temps are also much more realistic for the height of the storm with a 1045HP in a favorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: I agree, GFS is amped too much imo. It’s backed down a good bit from being a cutter as it is and I expect it to slowly adjust. Euro CAD temps are also much more realistic for the height of the storm with a 1045HP in a favorable spot. I’m dead on the line at 32... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Of the 4 models with the 00z run, the GFS and UKMet are the most similar at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Of the 4 models with the 00z run, the GFS and UKMet are the most similar at 500mb who would have put money on that when this storm first popped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Of the 4 models with the 00z run, the GFS and UKMet are the most similar at 500mb Canadian is a nightmare scenario. It’s probably, like always, going to nail surface temps with the CAD and has us, at maximum, mid 20s during the heart of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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