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Roger Smith

January 2017 Temperature Forecast Contest

21 posts in this topic

The 2017 Temperature forecast contest is underway. We will continue with the nine locations with the objective to forecast the monthly temperature anomaly in F deg relative to the 1981-2010 normal values for

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Late penalties will be reduced  for this first month only, as the New Years holiday and a weekend are rather intrusive. The normal penalties (which will return in other months) are 1% for every 2 hours late, after the deadline of 06z on the first day of the month; then, 1% for every hour late after 18z on 2nd. This month, you will only lose 1% for every 4 hours late (or fraction thereof) to 18z on January 3rd (which would be 15% at that point) then 1% additional per hour until 05z on 5th (50% total) and 2% per hour to 06z 6th to expire the penalties at about the usual time on the 6th. 

A few more entrants would be a good thing, this contest has gradually been reduced from about 25-30 regulars to 18-20. I posted some publicity about the contest in regional forums last month, hoping some noted the invitation for January rather than December, but if you spread the word in your sub-forum banter or equivalent thread, maybe that would be more effective than having a sub-forum outsider posting about the contest. One concept we could try out is a sub-forum contest ongoing within this overall contest, using best scores from each sub-forum. I would start that except that in some cases entrants here are not active in a sub-forum although I could assign them by location. That might get us a larger turnout. 

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I know there are some people in here from another forum I am apart of that I have tried to bring them in for the WxChallenge but this might be better suited for them then something like that. This was an experience for sure thanks for adding me:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.4__ -0.5 ___ -1.0_____ -2.2___ +1.7__+1.2____-1.9____+0.8___-2.3

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Always glad to see new forecasters joining in (new to this contest, that is, sure you're not new new) ... seems that you have the high score in the eastern section for December on the current provisionals -- that was the entire contest three years ago, we added the three central stations one year then the three western stations.

I will add my forecast -- please note (all readers), when you forecast early you can always edit before the deadline without bothering to draw attention to your edit because I don't make any notes of forecasts until about an hour after the deadline, so if you go early and change your mind, just edit in your revised numbers.

--0.2 __ --0.7 __ --1.2 ____ --3.3 __ +0.2 __ +1.5 ____ +0.5 __ +2.0 __ --3.5

(If anyone is wondering about SEA normals, they are probably around 36-37 F for January, average of max of 45 and min of 29. Long spells without highs above 40 are unusual around here. But snow cover really changes anomaly patterns locally; with snow cover it can easily drop 10 degrees lower on clear nights than over bare ground in the same synoptics. This may turn out to be the coldest December since 1968 around here, certainly the most snow in my part of the world since Dec 2008). 

 

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.5       1.0        1.0             0.0          1.0     1.0            -0.5      1.0       -0.5 

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Table of forecasts for January 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Prestige Worldwide ______ +2.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 ___ --2.6 _ +3.4 _ --1.7 ____--2.1 _ --0.2 _ --2.4

Maxim _________________+2.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ --1.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 ____--1.5 _ +1.0 _ --3.5

DonSutherland.1 ________ +2.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.4 ___ +1.0+3.7 _ +4.0 ____--0.7 _ +0.5 _ --4.5

Stebo __________________+1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ --1.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ____--2.2 _ --1.1 _ --2.9

BKViking _______________ +1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ --1.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ____--2.4 _ --0.7 _ --3.1

RJay ___________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____--1.0 _ --1.5 _ --4.0

SD ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____--0.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5

so_whats_happening _____ +1.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ____--1.9 _ +0.8 _ --2.3

blazess556 ___ (-1%) _____+1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +0.1 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ____--1.4 _ --1.1 _ --0.8

 

Consensus _______________+1.4 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ____--1.5 _ --0.2 _ --2.8

 

dmillz25 ________________+1.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____--1.5 _ --1.7 _ --3.5

hudsonvalley21 _________  +1.1 _ +0.4 _ +1.3 ___ --0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.3 ____--0.3 _ +0.6 _ --1.2

H2Otown_WX ___________ +1.1 _ +0.4 _ --0.2 ___ --1.8 _ +1.4 _ --0.6 ____--1.3 _ +1.5 _ --0.9

wxallannj ______________ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 ___ --1.1 _ +1.8 _ +0.7 ____--2.6 _ --1.3 _ --4.1

Tom __________________ +0.4 _ --0.2 _ --0.6 ___ --3.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ____--2.9 _ --0.9 _ --3.1

wxdude64 ______________ +0.3 _ --1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ____--1.5 _ --0.3 _ --2.8

Damage in Tolland _______ +0.2 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --2.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ____--2.5 _ --0.3 _ --2.2

 

Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Roger Smith ____________ --0.2 _ --0.7 _ --1.2 ___ --3.3 _ +0.2 _ +1.5 ____+0.5 _ +2.0 _ --3.5

RodneyS _______________ --1.2--1.6 _ --1.2 ___ --0.6 __ 0.0 _ +0.8 ____ --2.0 _ --1.1 _ --1.9

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Note: with the relaxed late penalties this month, we are currently at 9% and will be adding 1% every four hours from 18z today to 18z Tuesday. Any further entries will adjust the Consensus values which are currently mean of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts. ... Welcome to Worldwide Prestige.   

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 January anomalies and projections ... next update on 19th for 18 days ...

_______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_____ (5d) _____ +6.8 _ +6.5 _ +7.4 __ --1.8 _ +7.3 _ +5.3 __--10.9 _ --0.1 _--11.7

____ (10d) _____ --1.8 _ --0.6 __ 0.0 __ --4.1 _ --0.9 _ --1.0 __ --7.0 _ +1.3 _ --9.0

____ (12d) _____ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.5e__--2.7 _ +2.2 _ +2.6 __ --5.3 _ +1.4 _ --9.2

____ (15d) _____ +3.0 _ +3.3 _ +3.5 __--1.7 _ +5.9 _ +5.5 __ --4.5 _ +1.6 _ --9.0

____ (18d) _____ +4.3 _ +3.9 _ +4.0 __+0.4 _ +8.2 _ +7.1 __ --3.4 _ +1.2 _ --7.3

 

___ (p25d) _____ +6.0 _ +5.6 _ +5.7 __ +4.5 _+10.2_ +8.4 __ --1.3 _ --1.2 _ --3.7

___ (p31d) _____ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 __ +2.5 _ +7.0 _ +5.5 __ --1.0 _ --0.7 _ --2.3

 

Snowfall to date __ 0.4 __10.1 __14.2 ___ 18.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 17.7 __ 0.0 __ 4.0

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