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Roger Smith

January 2017 Temperature Forecast Contest

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The 2017 Temperature forecast contest is underway. We will continue with the nine locations with the objective to forecast the monthly temperature anomaly in F deg relative to the 1981-2010 normal values for

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Late penalties will be reduced  for this first month only, as the New Years holiday and a weekend are rather intrusive. The normal penalties (which will return in other months) are 1% for every 2 hours late, after the deadline of 06z on the first day of the month; then, 1% for every hour late after 18z on 2nd. This month, you will only lose 1% for every 4 hours late (or fraction thereof) to 18z on January 3rd (which would be 15% at that point) then 1% additional per hour until 05z on 5th (50% total) and 2% per hour to 06z 6th to expire the penalties at about the usual time on the 6th. 

A few more entrants would be a good thing, this contest has gradually been reduced from about 25-30 regulars to 18-20. I posted some publicity about the contest in regional forums last month, hoping some noted the invitation for January rather than December, but if you spread the word in your sub-forum banter or equivalent thread, maybe that would be more effective than having a sub-forum outsider posting about the contest. One concept we could try out is a sub-forum contest ongoing within this overall contest, using best scores from each sub-forum. I would start that except that in some cases entrants here are not active in a sub-forum although I could assign them by location. That might get us a larger turnout. 

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I know there are some people in here from another forum I am apart of that I have tried to bring them in for the WxChallenge but this might be better suited for them then something like that. This was an experience for sure thanks for adding me:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

+1.4__ -0.5 ___ -1.0_____ -2.2___ +1.7__+1.2____-1.9____+0.8___-2.3

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Always glad to see new forecasters joining in (new to this contest, that is, sure you're not new new) ... seems that you have the high score in the eastern section for December on the current provisionals -- that was the entire contest three years ago, we added the three central stations one year then the three western stations.

I will add my forecast -- please note (all readers), when you forecast early you can always edit before the deadline without bothering to draw attention to your edit because I don't make any notes of forecasts until about an hour after the deadline, so if you go early and change your mind, just edit in your revised numbers.

--0.2 __ --0.7 __ --1.2 ____ --3.3 __ +0.2 __ +1.5 ____ +0.5 __ +2.0 __ --3.5

(If anyone is wondering about SEA normals, they are probably around 36-37 F for January, average of max of 45 and min of 29. Long spells without highs above 40 are unusual around here. But snow cover really changes anomaly patterns locally; with snow cover it can easily drop 10 degrees lower on clear nights than over bare ground in the same synoptics. This may turn out to be the coldest December since 1968 around here, certainly the most snow in my part of the world since Dec 2008). 

 

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DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.5       1.0        1.0             0.0          1.0     1.0            -0.5      1.0       -0.5 

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Table of forecasts for January 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Prestige Worldwide ______ +2.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 ___ --2.6 _ +3.4 _ --1.7 ____--2.1 _ --0.2 _ --2.4

Maxim _________________+2.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ --1.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 ____--1.5 _ +1.0 _ --3.5

DonSutherland.1 ________ +2.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.4 ___ +1.0+3.7 _ +4.0 ____--0.7 _ +0.5 _ --4.5

Stebo __________________+1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ --1.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ____--2.2 _ --1.1 _ --2.9

BKViking _______________ +1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ --1.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ____--2.4 _ --0.7 _ --3.1

RJay ___________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____--1.0 _ --1.5 _ --4.0

SD ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____--0.5 _ +1.0 _ --0.5

so_whats_happening _____ +1.4 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ____--1.9 _ +0.8 _ --2.3

blazess556 ___ (-1%) _____+1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +0.1 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ____--1.4 _ --1.1 _ --0.8

 

Consensus _______________+1.4 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ____--1.5 _ --0.2 _ --2.8

 

dmillz25 ________________+1.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ____--1.5 _ --1.7 _ --3.5

hudsonvalley21 _________  +1.1 _ +0.4 _ +1.3 ___ --0.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.3 ____--0.3 _ +0.6 _ --1.2

H2Otown_WX ___________ +1.1 _ +0.4 _ --0.2 ___ --1.8 _ +1.4 _ --0.6 ____--1.3 _ +1.5 _ --0.9

wxallannj ______________ +0.7 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 ___ --1.1 _ +1.8 _ +0.7 ____--2.6 _ --1.3 _ --4.1

Tom __________________ +0.4 _ --0.2 _ --0.6 ___ --3.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ____--2.9 _ --0.9 _ --3.1

wxdude64 ______________ +0.3 _ --1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ____--1.5 _ --0.3 _ --2.8

Damage in Tolland _______ +0.2 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --2.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.5 ____--2.5 _ --0.3 _ --2.2

 

Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Roger Smith ____________ --0.2 _ --0.7 _ --1.2 ___ --3.3 _ +0.2 _ +1.5 ____+0.5 _ +2.0 _ --3.5

RodneyS _______________ --1.2--1.6 _ --1.2 ___ --0.6 __ 0.0 _ +0.8 ____ --2.0 _ --1.1 _ --1.9

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Note: with the relaxed late penalties this month, we are currently at 9% and will be adding 1% every four hours from 18z today to 18z Tuesday. Any further entries will adjust the Consensus values which are currently mean of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts. ... Welcome to Worldwide Prestige.   

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 January anomalies and projections ... next update on 23rd for 22 days in new post ...

_______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_____ (5d) _____ +6.8 _ +6.5 _ +7.4 __ --1.8 _ +7.3 _ +5.3 __--10.9 _ --0.1 _--11.7

____ (10d) _____ --1.8 _ --0.6 __ 0.0 __ --4.1 _ --0.9 _ --1.0 __ --7.0 _ +1.3 _ --9.0

____ (12d) _____ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.5e__--2.7 _ +2.2 _ +2.6 __ --5.3 _ +1.4 _ --9.2

____ (15d) _____ +3.0 _ +3.3 _ +3.5 __--1.7 _ +5.9 _ +5.5 __ --4.5 _ +1.6 _ --9.0

____ (18d) _____ +4.3 _ +3.9 _ +4.0 __+0.4 _ +8.2 _ +7.1 __ --3.4 _ +1.2 _ --7.3

____ (20d) _____ +4.8 _ +4.6 _ +4.5 __+1.9 _ +9.7 _ +7.4 __ --2.5 _ +0.5 _ --6.2

 

___ (p27d) _____ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +6.0 __ +4.8 _ +8.0 _ +8.5 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ --3.5

___ (p31d) _____ +4.5 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 __ +3.0 _ +6.5 _ +6.5 __ --1.0 _ --1.0 _ --2.7

 

 

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_______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

____ (22d) _____ +5.5 _ +5.4 _ +5.6 __+3.7 _+10.2 _ +7.9 __ --2.1 _ +0.1 _ --5.4

____ (24d) _____ +5.7 _ +5.5 _ +5.9 __+4.5 _+10.0 _ +8.0 __ --1.9 _ --0.3 _ --5.3

____ (26d) _____ +6.6 _ +6.1 _ +6.5 __+5.0 _+10.1 _ +7.8 __ --2.6 _ --1.0 _ --5.0

____ (28d) _____ +6.5 _ +6.0 _ +6.6 __+4.9 _ +9.2 _ +7.0 __ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ --4.5

____ (29d) _____ +6.4 _ +6.0 _ +6.7 __+4.7 _ +8.8 _ +6.7 __ --1.9 _ --1.5 _ --4.4

____ (30d) _____ +6.2 _ +5.8 _ +6.5 __+4.7 _ +8.6 _ +6.7 __ --1.3 _--1.4 _ --4.2

 

____ (31d) _____ +6.1 _+5.4 _+6.1 __ +5.0_+8.7 _+6.8 __--0.7 _--1.3 _--4.1

.

Snowfall to date __ 1.4 __11.1 __14.8 ___ 18.3 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 17.7 __ 0.0 __ 4.0

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Final scoring for January 2017

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS ____east____ ORD_ATL_IAH ____cent_____ TOTAL

 

DonSutherland.1 ________ 35 _ 32 _ 17 ____ 084 ____ 20 37 _ 62 ____119 ____ 203

Prestige Worldwide ______ 39 _ 38 _ 04 ____ 081 ____ 00 _ 34 _ 00 ____ 034 _____ 115

Maxim _________________39 _ 16 _ 05 ____ 060 ____ 00 _ 30 _ 22 ____ 052 _____ 112

Stebo _________________ 25 _ 26 _ 13 ____ 064 ____ 00 _ 22 _ 18 ____ 040 _____ 104 

dmillz25 _______________15 _ 16 _ 10 ____ 041 ____ 20 _ 20 _ 15 ____ 055 _____ 096

BKViking _______________21 _ 26 _ 15 ____ 062 ____ 00 _ 20 _ 10 ____ 030 _____ 092

blazess556 ___ (-1%) ____17 _ 20 _ 10 ____ 047 ____ 02 _ 18 _ 24 ____ 044 _____ 091

RJay __________________19 _ 16 _ 10 ____ 045 ____ 10 _ 20 _ 15 ____ 045 _____ 090

 

Consensus ______________17 _ 16 _ 07 ____ 040 ____ 00 _ 18 _ 12 ____ 030 _____ 070

 

SD ___________________ 19 _ 16 _ 10 ____ 045 ____ 00 _ 10 _ 10 ____ 020 _____ 065

wxallannj ______________ 07 _ 14 _ 08 ____ 029 ____ 00 _ 18 _ 07 ____ 025 _____ 054

hudsonvalley21 _________ 11 _ 04 _ 15 ____ 030 ____ 00 _ 08 _ 13 ____ 021 _____ 051

so_whats_happening _____17 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 017 ____ 00 _ 17 _ 12 ____ 029 _____ 046

H2Otown_WX ___________11 _ 04 _ 00 ____ 015 ____ 00 _ 14 _ 00 ____ 014 _____ 029

wxdude64 ______________03 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 003 ____ 00 _ 12 _ 12 ____ 024 _____ 027

Damage in Tolland _______02 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 002 ____ 00 _ 05 _ 15 ____ 020 _____ 022

Roger Smith ____________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 15 ____ 017 _____ 017

Tom __________________ 04 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 004 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 007 _____ 011

RodneyS _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 08 ____ 008 _____ 008

 

Normal _________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 000 _____ 000

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Final scoring for western and all nine contests January 2017

 

FORECASTER ___________ DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL _____ All nine ( = rank )

 

Rjay __________________ 94 _ 96 _ 98 _______288 _________ 378 ( = 2 )

dmillz25 _______________ 84 _ 92 _ 88 _______ 264 _________ 360 ( = 3 )

wxallannj ______________ 62 _100_100 _______ 262 _________ 316 ( = 8 )

DonSutherland.1 ________100 _ 64 _ 92 _______ 256 _________ 459 ( = 1 )

Stebo _________________ 70 _ 96 _ 76 _______ 242 _________ 346 ( = 4 )

wxdude64 ______________84 _ 80 _ 74 _______ 238 _________ 265 ( =10)

 

Consensus _____________ 84 _ 78 _ 74 _______ 236 ________ 306 ( = 9 )

 

BKViking _______________66 _ 88 _ 80 _______ 234 _________ 326 ( = 7 )

Tom __________________ 56 _ 92 _ 80 _______ 228 _________ 239 ( = 14)

RodneyS _______________74 _ 96 _ 56 _______ 226 _________ 234 ( = 15)

Maxim ________________ 84 _ 54 _ 88 _______ 226 _________ 338 ( = 5 )

Prestige Worldwide ______ 72 _ 78 _ 66 _______ 216 _________ 331 ( = 6 )

blazess556 ____ (-1%)___ 85*_ 95*_34 _______ 214 _________ 305 ( = 9 )

Damage in Tolland ______ 64 _ 80 _ 62 _______ 206 _________ 228 ( = 16)

so_whats_happening _____76 _ 58 _ 64 _______ 198 _________ 244 ( = 12)

Roger Smith ____________ 76 _ 34 _ 88 _______ 198 _________ 215 ( = 17)

hudsonvalley21 __________92 _ 60 _ 42 _______ 196 _________ 247 ( = 11)

SD ____________________ 96 _ 54 _ 28 _______ 178 _________ 243 ( = 13)

Normal _________________86 _ 74 _ 18 _______ 178 _________ 178 ( = 19)

H20TownWx ____________ 88 _ 44 _ 36 _______ 168 _________ 197 ( = 18)
 

______________________________________________________

* these scores for blazess556 reduced by 1 point, others too low for 1% reduction.

 

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EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

 

All  six of the eastern and central locations  easily qualified for an extreme forecast award. These will go to DonSutherland.1 for BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH; Prestige Worldwide for DCA and NYC; also Maxim (tied DCA) and Dmillz25 (tied ORD). 

Our group performance for BOS was one of the least productive scoring efforts, the top score there was 17, also ORD was generally under-predicted with tied top scores 20. Our winners otherwise managed to wring out quite a few points against the field's rather low scoring in general. See the final scoring table above for those details, top scores in red (top aggregate scores in bold). What I like about scoring January is that there are no annual tables to update. :)

DEN did not qualify at -0.7 after a late surge of warmth. PHX narrowly missed as third lowest forecast (wxallannj at -1.3) was high score; dmillz25 at -1.7 and  second coldest Rjay at -1.5 were close but no award here. SEA however just made it into the table for wxallannj at -4.1, second lowest forecast which gives DonSutherland1 a loss at -4.5.

Forecaster record after January (7 of 9 qualify)

 

DonSutherland1 ____ 4-1

Prestige Worldwide __2-0

Maxim ____________ 1-0

Dmillz25 ___________1-0

Wxallannj __________1-0

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