December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[Heisy]

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs Para with the New Year's coastal. Nice Lil event verbatim. 

H5 looks more like today's Op euro.

 

Haven't been a fan of the Para GFS at all. Could be subjective I don't have the true statistics from it. However, that snow event it has is ridiculous. You don't get many snowstorms in our region with a LP in the Lakes unless it is a CAD type event like last week. Pretty ridiculous IMO.....Still think we need to just focus on the 3rd onward. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Psu, explaining nina focus is pretty simple. First, we almost got there before the weakening late this fall. Second, a se ridge + dominent northern stream and nw storm track fits the basic mold. 

How much of this is directly attributed to equatorial ssta's is debatable but the pattern resembling a fairly typical nina is what it is. Even if everyone just agrees that it's a straight up neutral winter it doesn't change the fact that we are stuck in a crappy pattern for snow. 

 

Agree on the crappy pattern. It is what it is regardless of what we call it. But I like to really understand the drivers behind the pattern not just scapegoat. Yes if you look at a mean of all ninas you see a signal similar to our current pattern. But looking at weak ninas even ones much stronger then this "whatever it is" that signal is weak. We're stuck more in what you would expect from a very healthy Niña. Conversely we have had winters with a more negative enso then now like 1995-96, 2010-11 that were nothing like this. Even legit ninas rarely have the extreme se ridge nw Arctic look we are seeing. It's on sterroids despite the Niña being on life support. So by my deductive reasoning there must be other drivers that play at least a significant part. Are enso sst contributing sure. But simply blaming this on enso seems to be missing the complexity and possibly the true combination of culprits behind this pattern. I highly doubt the enso is the most significant forcing behind this as weak as it is. I suspect the Atlantic sst, which has been killing us early season for 3 years now, has something to do with it. The qbo isn't helping. The pdo flipping on us. No help from the AO of nao so far.  none of that changes our prospects for snow. We have had putrid neutral winters before. I just don't want to over simplify things. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

18z GFS has a threat Jan 6. Right now, seems like a good window.


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[Bob Chill]

Sometimes it's just weather being weather I suppose. The one thing that is a 100% accurate predictor on this board is then ssw and mjo talk becomes common it means we're in deep doo do for a while. LOL

 

18z gfs finally shows what could happen with hp over the top instead of the constant string of lows running around to our nw. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Sometimes it's just weather being weather I suppose. The one thing that is a 100% accurate predictor on this board is then ssw and mjo talk becomes common it means we're in deep doo do for a while. LOL

 

18z gfs finally shows what could happen with hp over the top instead of the constant string of lows running around to our nw. 

True that!  And I honestly didn't look at the surface on 18z gfs but I quickly looped the northern hemisphere h5 and thought it looked promising so not shocked it has something. But looking at a surface plot past day 7 is a waste of time mostly. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

True that!  And I honestly didn't look at the surface on 18z gfs but I quickly looped the northern hemisphere h5 and thought it looked promising so not shocked it has something. But looking at a surface plot past day 7 is a waste of time mostly. 

No doubt. Ops late in their runs are no better than a single ens member. It was a good example of what can go right after endless runs of lp to the nw screwing everything up. I would think that if we get enough cold highs traversing the country eventually we can get a wave below us without some crappy placed low to the nw screwing up the midlevels. 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt. Ops late in their runs are no better than a single ens member. It was a good example of what can go right after endless runs of lp to the nw screwing everything up. I would think that if we get enough cold highs traversing the country eventually we can get a wave below us without some crappy placed low to the nw screwing up the midlevels. 

You would hope if we keep getting at bats eventually we get a hit. 

[Eduardo]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree on the crappy pattern. It is what it is regardless of what we call it. But I like to really understand the drivers behind the pattern not just scapegoat. Yes if you look at a mean of all ninas you see a signal similar to our current pattern. But looking at weak ninas even ones much stronger then this "whatever it is" that signal is weak. We're stuck more in what you would expect from a very healthy Niña. Conversely we have had winters with a more negative enso then now like 1995-96, 2010-11 that were nothing like this. Even legit ninas rarely have the extreme se ridge nw Arctic look we are seeing. It's on sterroids despite the Niña being on life support. So by my deductive reasoning there must be other drivers that play at least a significant part. Are enso sst contributing sure. But simply blaming this on enso seems to be missing the complexity and possibly the true combination of culprits behind this pattern. I highly doubt the enso is the most significant forcing behind this as weak as it is. I suspect the Atlantic sst, which has been killing us early season for 3 years now, has something to do with it. The qbo isn't helping. The pdo flipping on us. No help from the AO of nao so far.  none of that changes our prospects for snow. We have had putrid neutral winters before. I just don't want to over simplify things. 

The regional focus of the anamalous SST's plays a role as well, correct?  West-based vs. East-based ENSO events drive the pattern much differently.  (From what I gather, we EC snow lovers route for west-based Niños and east-based Niñas.)

[yoda]

1 hour ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

18z GFS has a threat Jan 6. Right now, seems like a good window.


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I actually like the 7th and 8th threat better... better positioning of the HP...

But yeah... let's see if the threat period stays put

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Eduardo said:

The regional focus of the anamalous SST's plays a role as well, correct?  West-based vs. East-based ENSO events drive the pattern much differently.  (From what I gather, we EC snow lovers route for west-based Niños and east-based Niñas.)

In general yes. Our best odds come with that combo and with weak to moderate events in general. Although that may be redundant as most west based ninos for instance are weak to moderate. We have yet to record a west based super Nino so we don't really know what it would do. Maybe we get 500" of snow in that scenario. Lol. But imho there are several competing factors that play a part. Sometimes enso can be the dominant factor. I kind of doubt that this year given its relative weak state.  If we're looking to blame sst the cold pool off the PAC nw and the warm Atlantic coast are probably playing a bigger part. That said a weak west based cold neutral enso state does absolutely nothing to help us. So it plays a part for sure as a more favorable enso state could make those other factors less hostile. There are so many permutations to this, that's why forecasting long range is so difficult and low confidence. 

[psuhoffman]

We are seeing some looks that are so close to "woof" lately.  Move that ridging near Greenland south a smudge and it's go time. The ensembles are close enough to suggest it's not crazy. Let's all ask Santa nicely!  Happy holidays everyone. 

[Amped]

Best look we've seen so far.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are seeing some looks that are so close to "woof" lately.  Move that ridging near Greenland south a smudge and it's go time. The ensembles are close enough to suggest it's not crazy. Let's all ask Santa nicely!  Happy holidays everyone. 

The trough in the west is what fundamentally has screwed us. That plus a SE ridge makes for an unfavorable storm track for our area in general. That seems to be the persistence in the pattern so far this winter. As for NA ridging "tweaked" southward (and with staying power) improving our odds, we know how that goes in the LR. Love for it to be real, but the current state of the QBO for one argues against it.

Happy holidays to you, and nice work on your contribution in our sub forum. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The trough in the west is what fundamentally has screwed us. That plus a SE ridge makes for an unfavorable storm track for our area in general. That seems to be the persistence in the pattern so far this winter. As for NA ridging "tweaked" southward (and with staying power) improving our odds, we know how that goes in the LR. Love for it to be real, but the current state of the QBO for one argues against it.

Happy holidays to you, and nice work on your contribution in our sub forum. 

Thank you. You may be right but it's Christmas Eve so I'm being positive. The se ridge doesn't hurt us as much in that look because the blocking over the top allows the cold to push and penetrate east so the ridging actually could help prevent a dry out to sea solution. I didn't even realize it until now but that look as is produced a pretty good snow storm on that run. But all the caveats you list are true but even in our worse years we get chances. I'll worry about the "what could go wrong" (lots) after Christmas. 

[psuhoffman]

2 runs in a row with a long range fantasy storm on Xmas eve. Let's hope it really looks like this in 2 weeks. 

[psuhoffman]

just got done setting up for Santa. Gefs best run yet. Supports the idea of a threat window day 10-15. Several runs are now suggesting as we suspected the first attack on the pv day 5-8 is premature. Displaced and weakens it but it's the next assault day 10-15 that may set up a favorable pattern. Too far out to get excited but if you take out the snow to our north in day 5-10 were actually the bullseye for day 10-15. Several hits and some misses to out south too. Mean up to 4-5" across the area. Very good day of runs IMO. 

[mdsnowlover]

O z  euro showing nothing but rain merry xmas everyone.

[mdsnowlover]

Merry Christmas everyone

[weatherCCB]

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL

wish you all health and happiness

and a few nice snowstorms in the coming New Year

pattern looks  to be improving for chances at least

[ldub23]

Looks like  a great pattern

 

 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

It's a Christmas Miracle!

[mdsnowlover]

19 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

It's a Christmas Miracle!

Sorry how is this happening since gfs show nothing on its run

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, mdsnowlover said:

O z  euro showing nothing but rain merry xmas everyone.

Our window if guidance is on to something, comes after day 10. Most have said it will take a while to get from where we are to where we need to be but at least the signs are there were headed the right way. If you told me a week ago when we were looking at a +epo/nao/AO, the unholy trifecta, that we could be in a -epo nao AO pattern by Jan 10 I'd have taken that immediately.  It could be much worse. If we're in a better pattern by mid Jan were doing good all things considered. Merry Christmas. 

[ldub23]

I think DC will get 3 big snows  in january.

[mdsnowlover]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Our window if guidance is on to something, comes after day 10. Most have said it will take a while to get from where we are to where we need to be but at least the signs are there were headed the right way. If you told me a week ago when we were looking at a +epo/nao/AO, the unholy trifecta, that we could be in a -epo nao AO pattern by Jan 10 I'd have taken that immediately.  It could be much worse. If we're in a better pattern by mid Jan were doing good all things considered. Merry Christmas. 

Thank you and merry Christmas, you're basically timing the snow for phase 7 of MJO, correct

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

Sorry I don't see this happening since gfs show nothing on its run

Ok 18z and 0z both had a big snow. Last op run didn't but a majority of the ensembles do. (Btw I remember times the op had a storm but ensembles didn't support it and you complained about that saying ensembles are more important at that range so which is it?) That's 3 straight great runs by my estimate.  Now it's totally legit to point out the range were looking at. Anything 10+ days away is low confidence. No one is predicting a specific storm. But the pattern looks good finally and not just on one run and supported by the ensembles. Maybe it happens maybe not but at least we have maybe when so far it's been hell no. This is, in my opinion, our first strong signal all season, before when we had good looking periods on guidance it was deceiving because they were getting the look over 15 days from 5 systems All low prob and bad tracks. This time the look is from one window with a high percentage of hits for that range. 

 So what do you want?  You mad the pattern didn't flip on a dime like some miracle and snow tomorrow?  Or are you mad that from 15 days every op and ensemble doesn't show 20"?  What do you expect to see as first signs of a better pattern from 15 days away?  And if your issue is just how far away it is then why are you wasting your time in the long range thread?  We're all frustrated is hasn't snowed but we should stil be logical about this.  I take the last few days of long range guidance as a win. Now I'm going to go enjoy watching my son open his Santa presents. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

Thank you and merry Christmas, you're basically timing the snow for phase 7 of MJO, correct

You too and there are signs we get to better mjo phases around mid Jan yes and that's not a coincidence. But there is way more complexity then that. Just like I said tropical forcing likely isn't driving this solely I doubt the mjo alone is. The changes we need begin before then. If we  still had an ape pv sitting over the pole going into phase 7 it probably wouldn't help much. But the pv looks to take a beating from multiple attempts to displace and weaken it over the next ten days. Maybe the mjo is the last peice of our puzzle, it certainly would help, I'm not denying the correlation, but if it was as simple as "it's Niña" or "its the mjo" this forecasting thing would be much easier. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

It's a Christmas Miracle!

"It's only a model" - Monty Python Holy Grail

[showmethesnow]

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to one and all. May your day be spent enjoying your family and friends with only the occasional model watching.

 

[Bob Chill]

Merry Christmas and enjoy family time. Much more important than our silly hobby. 

Without going into detail, it looks like our switch to legit winter is holding in time around the 5th and beyond and it keeps looking better. We could sneak something messy in before that but if ens guidance is right, we should be tracking something real on the horizon before the end of this week.