• Member Statistics

    15,569
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    HunterMT
    Newest Member
    HunterMT
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
powderfreak

NNE Winter Thread

Recommended Posts

Our area wasn’t in the Winter Storm Watch from earlier today, but something must have changed in the thoughts of the BTV NWS for this upcoming event, because we’re under a Winter Storm Warning now.  Updated maps and warning text are below:

 

14FEB17C.jpg

 

14FEB17D.jpg

 

VTZ006-008-016>018-151100-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0002.170215T1200Z-170217T0000Z/

Lamoille-Washington-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-

Eastern Addison-

Including the cities of Johnson, Stowe, Montpelier,

Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, and Ripton

318 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST

THURSDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter

Storm Warning for snow...which is in effect from 7 AM Wednesday

to 7 PM EST Thursday.

 

* Locations...Western Slopes of Vermont.

 

* Hazard Types...Snow.

 

* Accumulations...6 to 12 inches of snow.

 

* Maximum Snowfall Rate...up to 1 inch per hour...mainly

  Thursday evening through midnight.

 

* Timing...Numerous snow showers and snow squalls will develop on

  Wednesday...and will transition into a light to moderate terrain

  focused snow on Wednesday Night into Thursday.

 

* Impacts...Snow squalls will produce sudden changes in

  visibilities on Wednesday...along with a quick couple inches of

  snow in a short period of time...resulting in hazardous driving

  conditions. These conditions will continue overnight into

  Thursday.

 

* Winds....South winds 5 to 15 mph on Wednesday...becoming north

  with gusts up to 25 mph on Wednesday night.

 

* Temperatures...Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Wednesday.

  Lows 16 to 21 Wednesday night.

 

* Visibilities...below one half mile at times.

 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

 

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather

conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow

are forecast that will make travel hazardous. Keep an extra

flashlight...food...and water in your vehicle in case of an

emergency.

 

Please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...Your local media...or

Go to www.weather.gov/Burlington for further updates on this

weather situation.

 

&&

 

$$

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

High bust potential either way. A heavily blocked flow sounds good to me though :)

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, eyewall said:

High bust potential either way. A heavily blocked flow sounds good to me though :)

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

Yeah I'm not feeling this as much on the east side.  Was thinking this could be good for like Williston type zone in the CPV.

Good low level convergence on the east side of the valley up to the Spine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah I'm not feeling this as much on the east side.  Was thinking this could be good for like Williston type zone in the CPV.

Good low level convergence on the east side of the valley up to the Spine.



Yeah Williston might be a good spot.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

 


Yeah Williston might be a good spot.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

 

Underhill and the west slopes haven't had nearly the snow we have on the east side so it's bound to crush them at some point.  I think it'll be a good blocked flow event.  

Can see it easily on the meso model QPF.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Underhill and the west slopes haven't had nearly the snow we have on the east side so it's bound to crush them at some point.  I think it'll be a good blocked flow event.  

Can see it easily on the meso model QPF.

 



That is true. I hope we can eek out 6 here :)

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:


Lol, you have your own little PF like picnic table

Haha yep, but it's in a very windy spot so doesn't get that much snow accumulation. I may have to move it to a sheltered spot! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, eyewall said:

High bust potential either way. A heavily blocked flow sounds good to me though :)

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk
 

ALY actually mentioned Froude in their disco today. Its honestly the first time i can remember them ever using that term. They usually just say some "upslope possible in the higher elevations" 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Event totals: 18.2” Snow/0.93” L.E.

 

We cleared out somewhat today and the snow finally shut off, so that marks the end of Winter Storm Orson and the above numbers are the final totals.

 

Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 15.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Underhill and the west slopes haven't had nearly the snow we have on the east side so it's bound to crush them at some point.  I think it'll be a good blocked flow event.  

Can see it easily on the meso model QPF.

 

Hey PF can you just briefly explain the process behind your comment... So you're saying the resort side will not see as good accumulations because the flow is heavily blocked? Thanks!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

Hey PF can you just briefly explain the process behind your comment... So you're saying the resort side will not see as good accumulations because the flow is heavily blocked? Thanks!

 

Yes. That's it exactly. It isn't that common as most of the time the prevailing flow is west/nw. In those cases the summits and east (leeward side) do better than the west side.  When the flow gets more N or even NNE the upslope snow doesn't get over the crest of the spine and falls between 1000ft and 3000ft on the west side. In extreme situations (Jan 2010) the snow falls all the way back in BTV. The Jan 2010 event saw like 30" in BTV and 6" at stowe...

 

Looking at the outputs a little more closely - I tend to agree with PF that this is a western slope event. Bolton/Smuggs might be the big winner here. With winds due north Stowe/Smuggs/MRG don't do as well. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are coming in warm with a forecast high of 37. I think we bust here for at least today. I am thinking any real accums may have to wait for upslope phase if it is blocked.

Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, adk said:

Yes. That's it exactly. It isn't that common as most of the time the prevailing flow is west/nw. In those cases the summits and east (leeward side) do better than the west side.  When the flow gets more N or even NNE the upslope snow doesn't get over the crest of the spine and falls between 1000ft and 3000ft on the west side. In extreme situations (Jan 2010) the snow falls all the way back in BTV. The Jan 2010 event saw like 30" in BTV and 6" at stowe...

 

Looking at the outputs a little more closely - I tend to agree with PF that this is a western slope event. Bolton/Smuggs might be the big winner here. With winds due north Stowe/Smuggs/MRG don't do as well. 

 

Great explanation.. Thank you! I knew that blocked and unblocked have different effects but did not know what drives them. 

Thanks again...

on another note, really sad to hear about the guy and the tree well. 

I typically ride alone when I come to Stowe. Hard to find DC folks who want to ski! So this freaks me out a little.. Need to give those evergreens a wide berth..

Heres rooting for another foot by Friday morning when I roll into town. Hope all the pow isn't skied out on Thursday!

-Jon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, adk said:

Yes. That's it exactly. It isn't that common as most of the time the prevailing flow is west/nw. In those cases the summits and east (leeward side) do better than the west side.  When the flow gets more N or even NNE the upslope snow doesn't get over the crest of the spine and falls between 1000ft and 3000ft on the west side. In extreme situations (Jan 2010) the snow falls all the way back in BTV. The Jan 2010 event saw like 30" in BTV and 6" at stowe...

 

Looking at the outputs a little more closely - I tend to agree with PF that this is a western slope event. Bolton/Smuggs might be the big winner here. With winds due north Stowe/Smuggs/MRG don't do as well. 

 

It would be interesting to see how we do. I found a paper describing upslope in the Whites and it seems that the rarer N direction is where we can do really well...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, alex said:

It would be interesting to see how we do. I found a paper describing upslope in the Whites and it seems that the rarer N direction is where we can do really well...

and southeast. The Whites are a huge barrier for winds off the ocean. In good nor easter's there is a huge upslope enhancement from low level easterly onshore flow. Also, whites are shadowed on w/nw flow by Greens to some degree. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, adk said:

and southeast. The Whites are a huge barrier for winds off the ocean. In good nor easter's there is a huge upslope enhancement from low level easterly onshore flow. Also, whites are shadowed on w/nw flow by Greens to some degree. 

I'd love to put the presidentials out on cape cod... I wonder how much snow they'd get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wasn’t sure whether or not this next storm was expected to have enough impact to call for a name, but it’s apparently reached that threshold and has earned the name Winter Storm Pluto.  Updated advisory and projected accumulations maps from the BTV NWS are below.  Projected accumulations don’t seem to have changed much in the BTV forecast area since the last map, but amounts over in New Hampshire have definitely been bumped up.

 

15FEB17A.jpg

 

15FEB17B.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should be an interesting drive to Killington for us from Cape May NJ this evening.  Looks like a 3-6/ 4-8" type deal?  Glad we have 4 wheel drive and decent tires.  Any insight would be appreciated.  The kids (and myself) are excited about the conditions and the prospect of fresh snow tonight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.