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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!

BuffaloWeather

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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58 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Long range is so depressing. Plenty of systems pumping through the pipeline every few days just no cold air...
Maybe some hope for next weekend?
7cebcbe8d2d44ab31ef3dec0b9a95d8d.png


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Long range looks great. Best December look in 6 years. The rest of November looks above average.

Dec. 2nd to 4th has a WSW LES event on GFS. Way to far out though, we will get our chances in December.

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Not impressed for late week...

By Thursday morning this system will be situated well to our north and east...with our region under the influence of a west-southwest flow of cooler air in its wake. While the cool air advection regime
will not be particularly strong with 850 mb temps only falling to between -2C and -4C...this will still be cool enough to generate at
least some scattered lake effect rain showers east-northeast of both
lakes...with relatively drier weather found across the remainder of the region. Under the modest cool air advection regime...temps will pull back some into the mid and upper 40s...though these will still be well above average for the first day of December.

But looking beyond...

All of that being said...this period will be chilly and unsettled with scattered rain and snow showers. The pcpn will be driven by a
progressive vortex over Quebec that will keep a moist cyclonic flow
in place over the Lower Great Lakes. Local lake influences will enhance the showers so that generally insignificant snow
accumulations will be possible. Initially...the mixed pcpn will be aimed at sites northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Thursday evening.
As the vortex moves east though...the flow will gradually veer to
push the more abundant showers south to the Southern Tier and Oswego
County respectively. By the end of the period...this activity is expected to advance back to the north in a weakened state.


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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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31 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Not impressed for late week...

By Thursday morning this system will be situated well to our north and east...with our region under the influence of a west-southwest flow of cooler air in its wake. While the cool air advection regime
will not be particularly strong with 850 mb temps only falling to between -2C and -4C...this will still be cool enough to generate at
least some scattered lake effect rain showers east-northeast of both
lakes...with relatively drier weather found across the remainder of the region. Under the modest cool air advection regime...temps will pull back some into the mid and upper 40s...though these will still be well above average for the first day of December.

But looking beyond...

All of that being said...this period will be chilly and unsettled with scattered rain and snow showers. The pcpn will be driven by a
progressive vortex over Quebec that will keep a moist cyclonic flow
in place over the Lower Great Lakes. Local lake influences will enhance the showers so that generally insignificant snow
accumulations will be possible. Initially...the mixed pcpn will be aimed at sites northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario Thursday evening.
As the vortex moves east though...the flow will gradually veer to
push the more abundant showers south to the Southern Tier and Oswego
County respectively. By the end of the period...this activity is expected to advance back to the north in a weakened state.


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If we were just a few degrees colder aloft it wouldn't be a terrible setup. Temperatures are just to marginal.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Next few weeks look very active. Temperature issues for next 10 days, but after that we should be mainly snow. This December pattern is one I think all of us cash in on. Looks loads better than the last few Decembers.

 

Completely agree on that.  The GFS has a consistent cool pattern from days 4-7 at which point a strong cross polar flow develops over the Rockies.  By day 10, a large lee side storm is forming over the plains with a very dynamic environment to work with.  In that scenario it would possibly be a cutter and torch us, but it absolutely appears to be a very active pattern..  

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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25 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Completely agree on that.  The GFS has a consistent cool pattern from days 4-7 at which point a strong cross polar flow develops over the Rockies.  By day 10, a large lee side storm is forming over the plains with a very dynamic environment to work with.  In that scenario it would possibly be a cutter and torch us, but it absolutely appears to be a very active pattern..  

 

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If you like cold air, then I think after week 2 in December, you'll get your fill. Western Canada going to be some kind of frigid for most of the month and will gradually spill east. Already seeing signs in LR ensembles from both GFS and Euro. 

I really hope that is true. I have a few PTO days the last 3 weeks of Dec. that I would like to go skiiing/boarding/chasing. It's still to far out to get me excited as the cold air keeps getting pushed back farther and farther in the extended. Europe has been in the ice box for quite awhile and it continues.

https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/15171308_1910172615872497_8973183690547141251_n.png?oh=50784a08dcd797812613bde2782dfdc8&oe=58F8DF13

 

These indices also don't excite me to much. The EPO goes positive later in the period and a negative PNA usually means a cold west and warm east.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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News about contests ...

Hello, I am dropping into all regional forum banter or chat threads to post some information about contests that you may find interesting. 

On the general forum of American Weather Forums, we have a temperature forecast contest that has been going on here since Eastern gave birth to American Weather. We would welcome some new entrants for 2017; the contest is simple to enter and just takes a minute once you've decided on your forecasts. There are nine locations across the U.S. including Boston, ORD, NYC and DCA. We predict anomalies from 1981-2010 normals, and the forecasts are scored promptly at the end of each month. I am drawing your attention to the contest a month in advance of the new contest year for two reasons -- (1) people get very busy and distracted around New Years, and (2) the contest has a four-seasons component for the 12 months starting Dec 2016. So this is a good month to jump in and get in a practice round before 2017. Some of the regulars in the contest include well-known forum members that you'll recognize, and the standards are pretty high (albeit I am dragging them down somewhat). So it's a good place to test out your forecasting insights against some of the better forecasters on American Weather. Here's a portal into that forecast contest thread ...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49268-december-2016-temperature-forecast-contest/

 

Meanwhile, one other contest I can recommend if you want to make a snowfall forecast for 25 locations in the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states for Dec to Mar winter 2016-17. This is a separate website that runs just this contest and storm forecast contests that you can enter with e-mail notification provided to remind you if a storm is brewing. Once again, you would recognize a few names in that contest (recent years have seen 15-20 regular participants) and the standards are pretty good, once again an ideal place to work on your forecasting or show it off depending on where things are at. 

 

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

That's the link for the Northeast U.S. snowfall contest website. 

Just to complete the tour, you may know that the central/western forum is the place to go for annual severe weather forecasts (most people make them in the winter months, the 2017 thread will probably open up soon). And make a note that there's an annual North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest also in the general forum here at Am-Wx. I organize that one as well, and usually run an announcement thread in May. 

Well, enjoy your winter and maybe we'll see some (more) of your sub-forum members taking part. 

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gravitylover

gravitylover

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Hey guys, dropping in to ask a question about your local weather.  I may need to take a quick trip out to (just south of) Rochester on Saturday and was wondering what you think I may be looking at for driving conditions.  Should I put the winter tires on before I leave or will it just be cool and mostly wet?  I drive a Subaru BRZ so rear wheel drive not awd and will be traveling with the car loaded both ways.  Thanks for the help.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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17 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Hey guys, dropping in to ask a question about your local weather.  I may need to take a quick trip out to (just south of) Rochester on Saturday and was wondering what you think I may be looking at for driving conditions.  Should I put the winter tires on before I leave or will it just be cool and mostly wet?  I drive a Subaru BRZ so rear wheel drive not awd and will be traveling with the car loaded both ways.  Thanks for the help.

You have a Subaru, you'll be fine. Just wet roads. I can't wait to get my AWD Subaru.

Saturday
A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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8 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

News about contests ...

Hello, I am dropping into all regional forum banter or chat threads to post some information about contests that you may find interesting. 

On the general forum of American Weather Forums, we have a temperature forecast contest that has been going on here since Eastern gave birth to American Weather. We would welcome some new entrants for 2017; the contest is simple to enter and just takes a minute once you've decided on your forecasts. There are nine locations across the U.S. including Boston, ORD, NYC and DCA. We predict anomalies from 1981-2010 normals, and the forecasts are scored promptly at the end of each month. I am drawing your attention to the contest a month in advance of the new contest year for two reasons -- (1) people get very busy and distracted around New Years, and (2) the contest has a four-seasons component for the 12 months starting Dec 2016. So this is a good month to jump in and get in a practice round before 2017. Some of the regulars in the contest include well-known forum members that you'll recognize, and the standards are pretty high (albeit I am dragging them down somewhat). So it's a good place to test out your forecasting insights against some of the better forecasters on American Weather. Here's a portal into that forecast contest thread ...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49268-december-2016-temperature-forecast-contest/

 

Meanwhile, one other contest I can recommend if you want to make a snowfall forecast for 25 locations in the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states for Dec to Mar winter 2016-17. This is a separate website that runs just this contest and storm forecast contests that you can enter with e-mail notification provided to remind you if a storm is brewing. Once again, you would recognize a few names in that contest (recent years have seen 15-20 regular participants) and the standards are pretty good, once again an ideal place to work on your forecasting or show it off depending on where things are at. 

 

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

That's the link for the Northeast U.S. snowfall contest website. 

Just to complete the tour, you may know that the central/western forum is the place to go for annual severe weather forecasts (most people make them in the winter months, the 2017 thread will probably open up soon). And make a note that there's an annual North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest also in the general forum here at Am-Wx. I organize that one as well, and usually run an announcement thread in May. 

Well, enjoy your winter and maybe we'll see some (more) of your sub-forum members taking part. 

This is pretty awesome!! Entered ^_^

 

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

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40 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Getting much more interesting checking the new runs past 2 days. Look at this bomb!
238c52fa517c4db16d3c00cfb016c5b0.png


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It doesnt even matter if these verify or even get close for that matter; its just fun to see model outputs like this. All of the ingredients are there next week.....We'v got something to track for now....

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It doesnt even matter if these verify or even get close for that matter; its just fun to see model outputs like this. All of the ingredients are there next week.....We'v got something to track for now....

Was surprised to see this from Buf NWS. Thoughts?

As I mentioned earlier the indices do not favor any prolonged cold at all. Lots of ups and downs. EPS look very cold for mid month, hope it verifies I want some lake effect. 

Model discrepancies and differences aside, it does appear that there
will be a non-diurnal temperature trend Monday night, with a warming
low level jet and steady or rising temps through the night into
Tuesday morning. A peek into the coming week also shows little in
the way of a profound cool down as the truly cold air remains far to
our west and northwest, across the Inter-Mountain region to the
Canadian West. Winter may have to wait until its official date on
the calendar.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Pretty cool website I've came across. Shows important weather events for each day.

http://www.weather.gov/buf/wxhis.html

Today back in 1975:

1975 :Lake snows--Nov. 29th-30th...Following a blast of very cold arctic air from central Canada the lake storm began on the 29th dumping 1 to 2 feet of snow south of Buffalo. During the early morning hours of the 30th the storm moved northward and struck northern Erie county including the city of Buffalo. It dumped 1 to 2 feet of snow over the city in just a few hours before moving farther northward to Grand Island, the Tonawandas, and Niagara Falls. The snow and wind in the city created near blizzard conditions nearly paralyzing morning rush hour traffic and closing many area schools. During the mid afternoon the storm moved southward through the city again making evening rush hour driving conditions even worse than the morning. The storm continued southward and stalled overnight south of Buffalo leaving totals up to 4 feet of snow in parts of southern Erie county. Numerous schools and main roads were forced to close. States of Emergency were declared in the towns of Evans and Angola. 

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