0z Models 12/22/10

[isnice]

Well, I was feeling optimistic after the GFS but with the UKMET and GGEM misses to the right, I'm worrying about the Euro.

Maybe the UKMET and GGEM are keying in on the fact that there's a narrow line between big storm and no storm, and they're siding with the latter. Even though the GGEM still bombs out later on, it shifted east from the 12z runs. It seems as though we have a never ending saga of east trends, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro shifted significantly further east tonight.

Damn radio show, lol.

[ptb127]

00Z GEM now looks like a compromise between the 12Z Euro and 00Z GFS to me

Not good for a major snowstorm..

[IsentropicLift]

I definitly don't like the fact that the Euro is becoming more and more of an outlier. I would say the GFS and UKMET are also SE outliers but even if you split the difference the general comprimise only argues for a glancing blow at best at this point. I still feel pretty good about this as long as the EC remains in play.

[Amped]

00z GGEM worse than last nights 00z GEM.

All comes down to the EURO.

[White_Mtn_Wx]

For a moment consider climo and not the models....Strong La-Nina=no snow for the MA. Should we be surprised that guidance is trending away from the snow solution for the MA?

[Guest someguy]

yea GGEM is a miss for our area... might hook in and hit New England but its gonna be wide right for DC. Looks like at best tonight we will still only have the Euro on our side. I hate to side with Ji but he had a point, the euro is usually deadly when it has support from any other models...but when it is totally on its own it has let us down usually.

this is is a really bad post / point you made

The weenie known as JI is asserting things Look "BAD" becuase he sees 1 thing and 1 thing only...

Unless there is massive 3.00" of liquid over his back yard where his Momma moomy and Dadda live it is a " diasater"

the Ggem looks Relatively good

I am NOT worried about the Precip shield at all. 90% of the time

a southern Gulf low coming up the coast passing 50- 100 miles east of HATTERAS Is going to have significant precip with it

[WintersGrasp]

I'll be honest, I'm not feeling too good about this storm. I think it very well could go out to see and probably will graze areas of eastern VA. I feel like when we've seen one storm (before this) trend south, others following it seem to as well. This seems to happen storm after storm a few times until there is one storm that finally tracks further north, and then eventually more inland runners, etc. I would not be shocked if phl to bos receives nothing from this and DC maybe an inch or two

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Well, I was feeling optimistic after the GFS but with the UKMET and GGEM misses to the right, I'm worrying about the Euro.

Maybe the UKMET and GGEM are keying in on the fact that there's a narrow line between big storm and no storm, and they're siding with the latter. Even though the GGEM still bombs out later on, it shifted east from the 12z runs. It seems as though we have a never ending saga of east trends, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro shifted significantly further east tonight.

Damn radio show, lol.

It's all a matter of signals and degrees. The GGEM is prone to wrapping up lows under certain circumstances at the 120-144 hour range. How many times have we seen enormous lows (I remember some forecast as low as 944 mb etc) on the GGEM from somewhere in the Gulf of Maine to NJ? It happens a couple of times every few years. Now it's backing off and shifting east as a signal changed.

At the same time the UKMET which was towards the middle saw the same signal and shifted east some. The GFS did the same. And the NOGAPS which was mostly missing every signal now misses the Grand Banks. So as you said, regardless of each individual solution something changed tonight that shifted a majority of the models to the east.

One of the questions that always comes to mind is this - if the EC does roll east assuming someone had been on vacation for a week and had no access to the 120-200 hour forecast storm, would they really give the situation the type of consideration we give it or is it the long long range model bombs that capture our interest?

Anyway great discussion guys, look forward to hearing the EC data.

[Guest someguy]

00z GGEM worse than last nights 00z GEM.

All comes down to the EURO.

wow another dumb post

[Zir0b]

For a moment consider climo and not the models....Strong La-Nina=no snow for the MA. Should we be surprised that guidance is trending away from the snow solution for the MA?

Strong first post. I can tell you're going to be well-liked among the members here.

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

I definitly don't like the fact that the Euro is becoming more and more of an outlier. I would say the GFS and UKMET are also SE outliers but even if you split the difference the general comprimise only argues for a glancing blow at best at this point. I still feel pretty good about this as long as the EC remains in play.

hmmm not so sure about the Euro becoming an outlier. Per the pro mets on the radio show tonight, tonights GFS and Nam runs were inching towards the Euro. I'm still optimistically excited for this storm, even if tonights Euro doesn't show an extreme solution.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

wtf is going on here? seriously......you guys are acting like things look bad tonite. they REALLY DONT! if anything, they look BETTER.

0z GFS threw 96hr LOOKS more like 12z EURO

0z NAM threw 48hr LOOKS more like 12z EURO

tell me im missing something?

[NaoPos]

wow another dumb post

This thread has been full of them...its ashame..

Nice work on the radio show tonight. Appreciate your time and enthusiasm.

[IsentropicLift]

For a moment consider climo and not the models....Strong La-Nina=no snow for the MA. Should we be surprised that guidance is trending away from the snow solution for the MA?

This pattern represents nothing that normally corresponds with a strong la nina. For one, coming from some of the top mets on here...there has never been such extreme blocking on record for this strong of a nina. Two...their is no southeast ridge. The only issue here is if and when phasing occurs. I'm not buying into the OTS solution on the GFS because it tends to be too fast and its been the most unstable model this week. Until the euro changes its tune you cant argue against it. It's shown the most consistency by far.

Were still 4-5-6 days out...anything can happen between now and then.

[WeatherNC]

00z GGEM worse than last nights 00z GEM.

All comes down to the EURO.

For who? Sorry, but these imby posts need to stay out of the main-side model threads, take this crap to your regional disco where it better serves you!

Add some objective analyses at-least, instead of one liners that add clutter and a mental cut and paste.

[Fozz]

wow another dumb post

When are you issuing your first forecast/outlook?

[Sn0waddict]

As the mets in on the radio show said, you have to expect flip-flops to occur these next two-days. Sure the GFS final outcome wasn't great, but up until hour 96 it looked pretty damn good. The GGEM is also not too far away from a solid hit. Everyone just sit back and relax for a bit. It's still 4-5 days out.

[Syrmax]

this is is a really bad post / point you made

The weenie known as JI is asserting things Look "BAD" becuase he sees 1 thing and 1 thing only...

Unless there is massive 3.00" of liquid over his back yard where his Momma moomy and Dadda live it is a " diasater"

the Ggem looks Relatively good

I am NOT worried about the Precip shield at all. 90% of the time

a southern Gulf low coming up the coast passing 100 miles east of SBY is going to have significant precip with it

Strongly agree...esp at this point, 5+ days out...qpf fields are probably the least reliable...look at the track/intensity and UL setup. A rapidly strengthening low rumbling out of the gulf states and NNE up the seaboard, and staying in relatively close, passing inside or over the BM...not likely to have a precip shield that restricted. I could be wrong.

[ohleary]

Not good for a major snowstorm..

Don't get me wrong, I LOVE a snowstorm, but when I analyze model output, I keep it scientific and forget about what I want to happen. Otherwise it's called wishcasting and it'll bust the forecast (in my head, I don't forecast for a living, thank god).

I'm not staying up for it but if the 00z Euro stays the 12z course I'd expect tomorrow's 12z GFS to trend toward it more. The other models (GEM, Ukmet) will come around too. Any backward slide in the Euro and we may be looking at some off-the-coast solution (GEM-like) that may be OK for NE, but not the MA.

[Guest someguy]

When are you issuing your first forecast/outlook?

wed midday

[IsentropicLift]

Strong first post. I can tell you're going to be well-liked among the members here.

Was thinking the same thing...I really wish noobs were restricted like on eastern

[Big O]

DT:

GFS has slowed the system as it traverses the southern Plains ala the Euro. The 12z Euro didn't have snow reaching southern NY/CT until 6:00 p.m. on Sunday. Do you believe the slower moving Euro will verify from a timing standpoint or do you favor a compromise?

[pojrzsho]

I think because many of us originally thought this would begin on Christmas eve, it seems very abnormal not to have more model consensus 3 days out. But we are not 3 days out, we are 4. GFS was healthier tonight, GGEM still has a storm not too far off coast, and exact precip field is always in question 96+ hours out. I'm liking chances for at least SECS.

[Reale WX]

00z GFS and NAM look identical at 84 hours out which I believe is supporting a slower and more southern track.. not worried about precip shield at this point

[real]

As the mets in on the radio show said, you have to expect flip-flops to occur these next two-days. Sure the GFS final outcome wasn't great, but up until hour 96 it looked pretty damn good. The GGEM is also not too far away from a solid hit. Everyone just sit back and relax for a bit. It's still 4-5 days out.

I agree everyone needs to relax, but you have to agree the Euro tonight will be huge for setting the narrative tonight, as well as the public mood tomorrow. This is not just any snowstorm, but a potential bomb on Christmas -- where there is MAXIMUM interest. By tomorrow, people will want to know what to make of East Coast holiday plans. Many people already expect at least some snow on XMAS, if the Euro trends way of GFS, there will be backtracking going on if, as some already noted, the fall back 1 to 3 or 3 to 6 vanishes...

[SBUWX23]

If the EURO tonight is close to or identical to what it was last night - how soon can you start seeing watches and warnings issued?

Not until Friday at the earliest for the northeast

[jm1220]

wtf is going on here? seriously......you guys are acting like things look bad tonite. they REALLY DONT! if anything, they look BETTER.

0z GFS threw 96hr LOOKS more like 12z EURO

0z NAM threw 48hr LOOKS more like 12z EURO

tell me im missing something?

Excellent post. People pay way too much attention to the sfc depiction and not nearly enough to what's happening at 500mb and above. I don't even look at the sfc chart before I look at the 500mb at least. Tonight, both GFS and NAM look a lot more like the Euro has up there than they have prior. Just because they look more like them now doesn't mean they are exactly similar, and very minute details are going to determine how much of a snowstorm anybody will have. Just because they trend 75% of the way aloft towards the Euro doesn't mean NYC gets 75% more of a snowstorm on the surface chart. Certain specific conditions will cause a major storm, and the absence of those will cause a miss. Not 60% or 75% of those ingredients. People are getting far too panicky right now for an ever evolving situation on all these computers.

[ptb127]

Good post DT.. and important to point out. When do the s/w's causing this storm come onshore and get better data handling?

this is is a really bad post / point you made

The weenie known as JI is asserting things Look "BAD" becuase he sees 1 thing and 1 thing only...

Unless there is massive 3.00" of liquid over his back yard where his Momma moomy and Dadda live it is a " diasater"

the Ggem looks Relatively good

I am NOT worried about the Precip shield at all. 90% of the time

a southern Gulf low coming up the coast passing 100 miles east of SBY is going to have significant precip with it

[Guest someguy]

DT:

GFS has slowed the system as it traverses the southern Plains ala the Euro. The 12z Euro didn't have snow reaching southern NY/CT until 6:00 p.m. on Sunday. Do you believe the slower moving Euro will verify from a timing standpoint or do you favor a compromise?

a euro slanted compromise

[WeatherNC]

I forgot, tomorrow is only Wednesday. Maybe another day of drama

Great post!!!

in

This really contributes to the current disco, given the trends!