Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 There is some ridging developing, as modeled, ahead of it as it approaches the Florida coast. May steer it a bit closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Hmmm...looks like the weakness to the east kicks out faster, and the MW trough slows and digs more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Pretty close on the 12z run to where it was on the 06z and 00z runs thru 18z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS and its ensembles remains fast and west in comparison to other guidance. I noticed the GEPS bumped east at 00z as well. 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hmmm...looks like the weakness to the east kicks out faster, and the MW trough slows and digs more... Might be a Carolinas hit this run with that block over NE a bit further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Yea.....Everything is retrograded a bit at H5 relative to 006z, so its going to shoot up a bit more. Not how it looked early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS a bit east, but still stubbornly west of most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 LF at Camp Lejune....my old base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Actually right near 06z at hr 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Nc landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 OBX looks like it takes it on the chin too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS a bit east, but still stubbornly west of most guidance. Early it is east, but it end sup west of 006z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Its west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early it is east, but it end sup west of 006z Difference is the trough west and ridging a hair stronger to the NE of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Waaay west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 And a lot slower too. Looks like it may try to phase in with the approaching trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Its slower and weaker than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Didn't really expect this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Destroyed on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Join the club, Scott.....I though it was OTS until about HR 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 LF at about Montauk....right over Fenway...gom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 It seems like that ULL moves SE off of Nova Scotia a bit faster and ridging builds in and keeps it from escaping just enough. That midwest trough is well timed too...and amplified. We'll see what the other guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Cmc way ots then curves back to get northern maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Yeah CMC goes a bit further east through hr 144 because of the weakness off of New England. It does have the sharp MW trough like the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Still way out in time. Wait till Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Cmc way ots then curves back to get northern maine 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah CMC goes a bit further east through hr 144 because of the weakness off of New England. It does have the sharp MW trough like the GFS has. Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Pretty much, Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Still way out in time. Wait till Wednesday. Yeah I've had zero interest in this thing until at least tomorrow night. Model runs are only slightly better than useless still at this point in terms of an NE potential impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah CMC goes a bit further east through hr 144 because of the weakness off of New England. It does have the sharp MW trough like the GFS has. Important.....I'm def. interested....not alarmed yet. I think the general public should at least be aware right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Unfortunately for work I have a lot of interest in the Carb/Bahamas so I am sucked in. Right now, even location of Matthew in the Bahamas is questionable...nevermind the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 GEFS right up the coast Navgem slams the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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