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NNE Fall Thread

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Amazingly, the PWM daily climate report for 30Nov2016 says we are still 6.42" below normal precip year to date.

Hard to believe with the rain we have had since October

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


Wow, didn't think the deficit was that bad.

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54 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

cool, thanks. Surprised to see all your snow gone.

Yes, it really took a beating - it's been very warm, and very humid; not a good combo. Definitely not that great start the resorts were supposed to have - although Thanksgiving was admittedly fantastic. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really hadn't looked much but that could be a nice upslope event for the greens incoming.

 

Yeah, the Mansfield point forecast hasn’t really changed much from what I posted yesterday, summing to something in the 4-10” range through Saturday.  From a quick look at the models I don’t think a half foot of snow would be hard to accumulation in the higher elevations during the period.  I’m sure PF and adk will have some additional thoughts if they’re warranted.

 

Not too much from the BTV NWS at this point in their discussion, but they’re certainly noting the potential to move into that orographically-enhanced precipitation setup.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

644 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

 

…Temps aloft begin to fall back below freezing by the afternoon as well, with a transition to snow expected above 2000 feet. At the surface, temps go just about nowhere from current readings across northern New York, with perhaps a few degrees higher across eastern Vermont. This results in highs for the day generally ranging through the 40s.

 

For tonight, terrain focused precipitation continues with possible a brief window if lighter precipitation possible around midnight or so as deep layer moisture shifts briefly north of the region. Overall, chances for rain/snow showers persist across elevations above 1500 feet, with cloudy skies continuing hold temps in the 30s.

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

As of 255 AM EST Thursday...By Friday into Saturday the large- scale upper low/cyclonic gyre will slowly translate east across southern Quebec and into the Maritimes by late in the period. Background synoptic flow will transition from west/southwesterly to northwesterly over time and with ample low to mid-level moisture scattered to numerous orographically-enhanced rain and snow shower activity looks likely. Highest coverage should occur on Friday with passage of the primary thermal trough with coverage slowly waning on Saturday.

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I bought 3 $20 tickets to Bolton for opening day (12/10) during cyber Monday, this needs to break my way or I am out of luck because they must be used by Christmas and I won't be back until January.

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Feet OTG, nice

MAINE

...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
   1 ESE FORT KENT       14.0  1100 AM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ESTCOURT STATION      13.0   340 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 E NEW SWEDEN        13.0   140 PM 12/01  NWS EMPLOYEE
   2 NW SAINT PAMPHILE   12.0   340 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CARIBOU               12.0   335 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MAPLETON              12.0   130 PM 12/01  FROM TED SHAPIROS PAGE
   WASHBURN              12.0  1200 PM 12/01  FROM WABI FACEBOOK
   4 NE LORING           12.0   230 PM 12/01  SOCIAL MEDIA
   3 WSW WASHBURN        11.5   305 PM 12/01  NWS EMPLOYEE
   CARIBOU - WFO         11.2   400 PM 12/01  COOP/RIVER
   5 NE LORING           11.2   225 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   4 SSE LILLE           11.0  1130 AM 12/01  FROM TED SHAPIROS PAGE
   3 W STOCKHOLM         11.0   140 PM 12/01  FROM TED SHAPIROS PAGE
   3 S CARIBOU           11.0  1150 AM 12/01  SOCIAL MEDIA
   4 ENE NEW SWEDEN      11.0   300 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 N PORTAGE           10.5   330 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 ENE CARIBOU         10.0  1200 PM 12/01  FROM TED SHAPIROS PAGE
   1 N WALLAGRASS        10.0  1200 PM 12/01  FROM TED SHAPIROS PAGE
   MADAWASKA             10.0  1215 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   HAMLIN                10.0  1150 AM 12/01  SOCIAL MEDIA
   VAN BUREN             10.0   300 PM 12/01  SOCIAL MEDIA
   6 N PATTEN            10.0   330 PM 12/01  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PRESQUE ISLE          10.0   300 PM 12/01  SOCIAL MEDIA

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3 hours ago, Albert A Clipper said:

I bought 3 $20 tickets to Bolton for opening day (12/10) during cyber Monday, this needs to break my way or I am out of luck because they must be used by Christmas and I won't be back until January.

 

I don’t think you have to worry too much in terms of Bolton having at least some lift-served skiing before Christmas.  They’ve already made some snow, and that stretch at the beginning of next week with lows around 20 F looks fine for snowmaking.  Terrain offerings can be minimal if they only have their very early snowmaking terrain in play, but it’s going to be interesting with some of the potential in the upcoming pattern.  With their latitude and elevation, they’ll cash in easily from a decent storm track.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Lets play a game called "Find the Spine."

 

Well, Mansfield has already dropped into the 20s F, so something frozen is probably falling up there.  No doubt about precipitation enhancement along the spine right now though – I left Burlington with nothing but clouds, and out here in the mountains we’re already getting some rain.

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6 hours ago, Lava Rock said:


Wow, didn't think the deficit was that bad.

For Jan-Feb my precip was +2.41".  Then came 7 straight BN months with cumulative deficit of 10.69", totaling 18.36" while my avg (which includes 2016) for that period being 29.05" - only 63% of avg over the 7 months.  We've had considerable rain during the past 6 weeks, but Oct-Nov averages nearly 10" here, so I actually lost another 0.16" to the avg.  If I'd run the deficit months thru Oct. 20, that 7 mo/20 day run would be -13.38" and only 58% of avg.   Hard to make that up even with a wet 6 weeks.

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40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Lets play a game called "Find the Spine."

Dec_1_zpsndkn9tdj.gif

Looking a little blocked up actually. 

Yea there is the potential for some decent upslope snow...just doesn't have quite the right look....interesting to see how this plays out. A lot of moisture could hook in from the great lakes and pound somewhere on the spine. Or with higher froude numbers it could be blown into NH as scatter flurries....

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2 minutes ago, adk said:

Looking a little blocked up actually. 

Yea there is the potential for some decent upslope snow...just doesn't have quite the right look....interesting to see how this plays out. A lot of moisture could hook in from the great lakes and pound somewhere on the spine. Or with higher froude numbers it could be blown into NH as scatter flurries....

Our model calculations have just a small window around 00z of > 1 values, but otherwise stay below 1 into tomorrow.

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7 minutes ago, adk said:

Looking a little blocked up actually. 

Yea there is the potential for some decent upslope snow...just doesn't have quite the right look....interesting to see how this plays out. A lot of moisture could hook in from the great lakes and pound somewhere on the spine. Or with higher froude numbers it could be blown into NH as scatter flurries....

Oh definitely blocked up to get that to develop from Canada to Killington all at once like that.

You can see it on composite building back over the Lake aloft...of course its not reaching the ground until quite a bit further east than the Lake.  All this on composite is landing X miles downstream of where its sampled by the radar.

Dec_1c.gif

Dec_1d_zpsseruc3oy.gif

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh definitely blocked up to get that to develop from Canada to Killington all at once like that.

You can see it on composite building back over the Lake aloft...of course its not reaching the ground until quite a bit further east than the Lake.  All this on composite is landing X miles downstream of where its sampled by the radar.

Hi-res stuff does want to kill this off around 00z, then fire up again towards morning.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Hi-res stuff does want to kill this off around 00z, then fire up again towards morning.

I didn't think anything would fire up until tomorrow.  Temps are too warm anyway below like 3000 for any chance at snow until tomorrow afternoon/night I think...but nice signal on radar that popped up very quickly.

Crazy how like it can go from passing virga and no radar returns to a full north-south organized band in like 15-20 minutes.  No real wind shift on VAD or anything, just all the sudden it must've gotten a little extra moisture or something? 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I didn't think anything would fire up until tomorrow.  Temps are too warm anyway below like 3000 for any chance at snow until tomorrow afternoon/night I think...but nice signal on radar that popped up very quickly.

Crazy how like it can go from passing virga and no radar returns to a full north-south organized band in like 15-20 minutes. 

Mountain meteorology is fun.

HRRR spitting out some pixels around 8-10 for Jay Peak area.

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19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Mountain meteorology is fun.

HRRR spitting out some pixels around 8-10 for Jay Peak area.

Yea, but I never really like when you see upslope lollipops. That always seems like models getting to excited. 

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Our local WRF is hitting a nice streamer off Ontario pretty hard for tomorrow afternoon. It has successfully modeled these before, so it will be interesting to see if it pans out.

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24 minutes ago, adk said:

Yea, but I never really like when you see upslope lollipops. That always seems like models getting to excited. 

Yeah I agree...however its tough when we get lake streamers and stuff like that on westerly flow.  But basically they could hit anywhere from Jay to Mt Snow.

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Bummer on the temperatures... this is a textbook signature right now.  Fast westerly flow with a surge of moisture and a seemingly steady state upslope band continuing. 

 

December_1_zps1zgt9xkc.gif

 

Sustained 40kts at 5,000ft out of the west....that air is definitely piling up against the mountains.

December_1_vad_zpsfnq4imhk.gif

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57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Bummer on the temperatures... this is a textbook signature right now.  Fast westerly flow with a surge of moisture and a seemingly steady state upslope band continuing. 

 

December_1_zps1zgt9xkc.gif

 

Sustained 40kts at 5,000ft out of the west....that air is definitely piling up against the mountains.

December_1_vad_zpsfnq4imhk.gif

Close...Gosh that's a nice signature. REally good

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13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Mountain meteorology is fun.

HRRR spitting out some pixels around 8-10 for Jay Peak area.

Sounds like the HRRR was right.  

6" overnight above 3000ft.  

Tapers down to a coating at 1800ft and just wet flakes here at 1500ft.  

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40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like the HRRR was right.  

6" overnight above 3000ft.  

Tapers down to a coating at 1800ft and just wet flakes here at 1500ft.  

Maybe this is going to be one of those years where you report a mid-mountain total of 200" and it's really an average of 0" base, 400" top. 2009 was like that I think. It rained below 1800/2000 and dumped above 2500 just about every storm. 

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58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like the HRRR was right.  

6" overnight above 3000ft.  

Tapers down to a coating at 1800ft and just wet flakes here at 1500ft.  

I was wondering what the report was going to be.  Driving to work on 89, I get a great view of the mountains between Exits 7 & 8 and it looked like top third of the spine and the Worcester Range got dusted up pretty good last night.  I am choosing to look at it as a positive sign. Gooooooooooooooo HRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!

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