powderfreak Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro gave a large area lighter QPF...close to where it happened. I think the earlier runs were wetter....but you can't use older runs in these situations. There also has to be some acknowledgement that the global models have been more widespread with convection QPF than reality since like May. I know you know this, but when convective elements are in play the model QPF is often too smoothed and too widespread (i.e. a 3" stripe on global models is often too widespread but shows the potential for a narrower zone). The meso-models had a great handle on this in the last 48 hours....with the small streaks of high QPF amid a more general area of lighter QPF. If I was going to be picky, I think the models were too far NW with the heaviest stuff. The 1-4" rains that fell in Mass into NH were more modeled to be like ALB-GFL-RUT latitude by a bunch of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 My good friend a Mashantucket Pequot Firefighter took this at Foxwoods this AM it was a crazy drive in https://t.co/bsaEBOUYtX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I give up. "Vast majority" and "meat of the region" I guess could be used to describe 50% of SNE. But then one could say the vast majority got a solid soaking. Those lucky few in the largely uninhabited areas of Mass north of the Pike and NW MetroWest region up through RUT-CON enjoyed it. Hopefully you see some rain. I dunno what to tell you man..there were two relatively narrow zones that did really well today. The rest of the region didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: There also has to be some acknowledgement that the global models have been more widespread with convection QPF than reality since like May. I know you know this, but when convective elements are in play the model QPF is often too smoothed and too widespread (i.e. a 3" stripe on global models is often too widespread but shows the potential for a narrower zone). The meso-models had a great handle on this in the last 48 hours....with the small streaks of high QPF amid a more general area of lighter QPF. If I was going to be picky, I think the models were too far NW with the heaviest stuff. The 1-4" rains that fell in Mass into NH were more modeled to be like ALB-GFL-RUT latitude by a bunch of models. Right. I tended to use 4KM NAM and eventually NCAR ensemble and HRRR as it got close. The GFS actually did show two bands as well (it's getting more hires now so it's been showing these setups fairly well at times.) I tend to not look at output verbatim...just where the synoptics argue for heavy rains and then go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Again, depends on what you define as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Which just happens to be where 75% of SNE population lives and breathes so glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right. I tended to use 4KM NAM and eventually NCAR ensemble and HRRR as it got close. The GFS actually did show two bands as well (it's getting more hires now so it's been showing these setups fairly well at times.) I tend to not look at output verbatim...just where the synoptics argue for heavy rains and then go from there. I thought the GFS was admirable picking up on the gap as well. I asked about the Euro but got no response. The GGEM/RGEM sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 43 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: ct is likely going issue a drought watch in oct for the state . not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know what to tell you man..there was one zone that didn't do well at all from BOS to HFD. The rest of the region did see a good half inch to 3 inch soaker. Finally something we can agree on, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 49 minutes ago, powderfreak said: If it doesn't happen in Tolland, did it ever really happen at all? Just making sure we are moving the goal-posts now to population weighted rainfall instead of a "few lucky areas" that encompass like 50% of New England spreading into upstate New York. This was the largest rain event for the region in quite some time. Sorry it didn't play out that well for you (though it does look like you were mere miles from a stripe of 0.5-1.0" that cut into northern Tolland County). Don't worry, you'll get plenty of QPF as snow this winter ;). like WEEI we need a whiner line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Oye vey. It's gonna be a long Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oye vey. It's gonna be a long Fall. I love the spin cycle setting on the washing machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 About a quarter of and inch, quite possibly the heaviest of the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right. I tended to use 4KM NAM and eventually NCAR ensemble and HRRR as it got close. The GFS actually did show two bands as well (it's getting more hires now so it's been showing these setups fairly well at times.) I tend to not look at output verbatim...just where the synoptics argue for heavy rains and then go from there. How'd the NCAR ensemble do? I always forget about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Throw another tire on the fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 New record daily rainfall for CON today...2.15". Beats the old record from 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: How'd the NCAR ensemble do? I always forget about that one. The 00z run did well last night. Showed the two jacks very well. That might be another weenie site to look at for winter synoptics. However, I'm not sure if the convective allowing nature of it will mess it up. I don't recall it being absurd last winter....but then again...we didn't have a large sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: New record daily rainfall for CON today...2.15". Beats the old record from 1938. Amazing the dichotomy. Gotta go back to the 1st week of August to add up to that total for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Looks like .74" will be the final total in the stratus gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: New record daily rainfall for CON today...2.15". Beats the old record from 1938. Looks like ORH will fall short of their daily record rainfall...tough record with 2.45" in 1938. Their 1.92" could've beaten some of the more vulnerable days around this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2016 Author Share Posted September 20, 2016 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Throw another tire on the fire can we get some cheese with your whine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2016 Author Share Posted September 20, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Oye vey. It's gonna be a long Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Hopefully that image is replaced with snow mobiles on my street this winter. I hate droughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 I don't know why you guys are posting pictures of Camels. I just looked and I see some rain on the GFS. Only 350 hours away now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully that image is replaced with snow mobiles on my street this winter. I hate droughts. It is pretty ridiculous in your area. There's definitely a part of the weather weenie that loves precipitation over nice weather...regardless of the physical effects of drought. We just love those years with 60-70" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 0.30" storm total. Underachiever. This is getting ridiculous, can't even buy a decent event. 1.14" on the month. Last rainfall larger than this was August 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 2 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: Looks like .74" will be the final total in the stratus gauge. You may not be done yet. Getting some showers here. 0.83" 2-day total in the can so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 54 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It is pretty ridiculous in your area. There's definitely a part of the weather weenie that loves precipitation over nice weather...regardless of the physical effects of drought. We just love those years with 60-70" of QPF. Been some dry spells over the last few years here in the summer, but this year is just getting out of hand. I've mowed once since Father's Day. On top of that, my soil sucks with big granite ledge under the soil. So, grass just burns up if no rain. I'm big on the yard, plants etc. so this summer just sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Winter has arrived at the tavoli da picnic in the Italian Alps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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