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lookingnorth

OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

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The trend has been towards a stronger, more consolidated, further west ejection on the GFS which is why you see the warmup as the strong southerly flow basically just overpowers the cold wedge. Will see if 12z Euro does the same.

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There are still major differences between the GFS and GEM with the push of the cold front at hour 96.  

Here is a quick breakdown:  

  CITY                            GFS                               GEM

Joplin                            31                                 21

Tulsa                             31                                 25

Bentonville                     36                                35

OKC                              32                                 27

KC                                 24                                15

STL                               28                                18      

 

                         

gem_T2m_scus_17.png

gfs_T2m_scus_17.png

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12z Euro is going to be colder/farther south at the start. Major icing in Joplin on Fri... A little warmer/farther north Fri night into Sat though.

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11 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z Euro is going to be colder/farther south at the start. Major icing in Joplin on Fri... A little warmer/farther north Fri night into Sat though.

How far south do below fz temps push?

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13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

How far south do below fz temps push?

Far NW AR but it'll warm up shortly after it does, at least on this run.

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Yeah Euro is colder for OKC metro. Pretty much stays below freezing for the entire duration. It is even showing some CAPE sneaking into the area and a squall line with the final wave as temperatures are still below freezing. Not sure I believe that but yikes if true.

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Damn that's allot of ice..starts Friday? Ends?? The ice? Any snow or sleet? Appreciate your updates. Thank you

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Total precip is down this run. There's an area across Northern OK and parts of NE OK and into SE KS that look to be under the gun for most precip. That area looks to get about 3-4" and it looks frozen. 

Some guesses since the color table is so close (all/most probably 'frozen' precip'):

Monett/Joplin/Springfield area will get frozen stuff on Fri but rise above freezing Fri night into Sat. Looks like around 0.5-1" with the most being on the I-44 corridor. 

OKC looks to remain frozen through most of the event with heavy accumulations. 2-3"

Far NW AR might get some freezing stuff at onset but goes above freezing pretty quickly.

St. Louis area looks to get hit pretty hard before it makes it above freezing on Sat.. 1-2" frozen stuff.

KC looks to remain below freezing through entire event... looks like 1.5-2" or so

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Thank you I appreciate it. Would love it to be snow. NWS in Stl.is saying more snow on Friday..but I trust our forum more. If it's ice I guess the only plus will be I may not have to be open on Sat/Sun so I can watch all the divisional playoff games....

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3 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Jomo, what does it show for Tulsa?

Starts as freezing rain, turns to rain on Friday and stays that way throughout. Greatest potential for major icing is NW of 44 and west of 77. 

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Thanks for all the info JoMo! I'm at work and running blind as far as models go. I know you said up to 1" of ZR for Joplin. What does the total qpf look like for Joplin on the 12Z euro?


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Tulsa is difficult because it's so close, looks like mostly rain though. If there's a small shift SE of the freezing line, Tulsa will probably get a lot more frozen, most of the frozen is just off to the NW. 

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1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

Thanks for all the info JoMo! I'm at work and running blind as far as models go. I know you said up to 1" of ZR for Joplin. What does the total qpf look like for Joplin on the 12Z euro?


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Probably somewhere around 2-3" total QPF. 

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As we have pointed out this is an extremely complicated forecast for mets and the NWS offices.  Way more so than snow.  Models almost NEVER (and I think we all agree it's ok to say never in this scenario) are correct with the extent of shallow cold air masses.

My 40 years of experience in the past is that cold air has no trouble bleeding SE until it hits the Ozark Mountains in NW AR and Southern MO.  Benton Co in far NWAR is usually the battleground in my area.  

We also know that warm air advection from the south will play a big role as well depending on how strong it is and if the cold air at the surface can hang around.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp cutoff between heavy amounts of ice and a cold rain.  Where that sets up remains to be seen.  

We should all use caution at this point until we get within 24 hours or less.  I think the major thing that appears to be a given is that someone on this board is going to experience a crippling amount of ice.   

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10 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

It seems the general thinking that the freezing line may be as much as 100 miles south of where the GFS and Euro are placing it, correct?

That's possible with the initial push of the front. Some places may start with freezing rain but the cold air will begin to erode and move northward.

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11 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

It seems the general thinking that the freezing line may be as much as 100 miles south of where the GFS and Euro are placing it, correct?

It's hard to say...the 18z NAM is running about 50 miles south with the front so far and it usually has a better handle on these setups. But it's still a bit far out in range a lot can change.

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1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

As we have pointed out this is an extremely complicated forecast for mets and the NWS offices.  Way more so than snow.  Models almost NEVER (and I think we all agree it's ok to say never in this scenario) are correct with the extent of shallow cold air masses.

My 40 years of experience in the past is that cold air has no trouble bleeding SE until it hits the Ozark Mountains in NW AR and Southern MO.  Benton Co in far NWAR is usually the battleground in my area.  

We also know that warm air advection from the south will play a big role as well depending on how strong it is and if the cold air at the surface can hang around.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp cutoff between heavy amounts of ice and a cold rain.  Where that sets up remains to be seen.  

We should all use caution at this point until we get within 24 hours or less.  I think the major thing that appears to be a given is that someone on this board is going to experience a crippling amount of ice.   

Couldn't have said it any better myself.

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25 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

It's hard to say...the 18z NAM is running about 50 miles south with the front so far and it usually has a better handle on these setups. But it's still a bit far out in range a lot can change.

Thanks.

Just compared the 18z NAM at 78 hours and the 12z GFS at 84 hours.

It looks like the NAM is certainly taking the initial front further south with it being out of OK except for LeFlore county at this time where are the GFS has it still north of I40

The NAM has the freezing line in NC OK whereas the GFS has the freezing line just south of Wichita.

 

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