Probably jinxing us here now..
744
FXUS64 KTSA 012111
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
311 PM CST Sat Dec 1 2018
.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern will be winter weather potential late
next week/weekend.
Deep cyclonic flow over much of the CONUS will maintain below
average temps thru the first part of next week. After a brief
period of modification next week, the weather will be taking a
downward trend toward the latter part of next week and into next
weekend.
The broad upper trough over the CONUS, carved out by the strong
upper jet that helped bring the severe weather last night, slides
east by midweek, and the upstream split flow pattern over the
eastern Pacific will be broken down by jet stream energy to its
west. A shortwave trough in the southern stream will advance east
across the southern tier of states late next week and weekend,
throwing a slug of moisture over the region. Coincidentally,
northern stream trough energy is expected to drop southeast out of
Canada, forcing surface high pressure and cold air south thru the
Plains. This one-two punch will bring the potential for wintry
weather, possibly significant, by next weekend. The operational
GFS is the warmest of all the solutions and is generally not
favored with its poor handling of cold air. The ECMWF and GFS-FV3,
while they differ in timing and the details, both show the idea
of a southern stream storm moving by to our south with wintry
weather occurring over at least a portion of the forecast area.
The details will continue to be ironed out in the coming days.
Stay tuned.
Lacy