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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion

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Since meteorological winter is just over three months away, it's probably about time to start a thread for winter predictions.

It looks like we will be in a weak la nina. I've heard the PDO is returning closer to normal. I'm originally from the SE, do the AO and NAO have much effect on the climate of the lower Midwest?

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It's possible we remain ENSO 'neutral' this winter. The last few neutral winters were good for this area.  

A negative AO is one method of delivering cold air farther south. The other method is a -EPO. Seems we get more periods of -EPO with La Nina and neutral conditions. We'll have to see what happens with any El Nino hangover as well.

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What do you folks think of these analogs for the upcoming winter?

1983-84 (weighted 2x)

1978-79 (weighted 2x)

1959-60 (weighted 2x)

2007-08

2013-14

2014-15

1915-16

That's what I have right now but I'm sure a couple more years could make it.

 

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1978 and 1983 come up in almost everything I try to align objectively. Same for 1981. If I look at winters in Albuquerque to match this year with...I looked for these nine variables:

1) a hot June

2) a hot July

3) a cold August

4) a dry Monsoon

5) ONI values in DJF of 0.0 to -1.0

6) a warm Atlantic in Nov-Apr (AMO+)

7) a warm Pacific in Nov-Apr (PDO+)

8) a double El Nino in the rear-view mirror (i.e. 1978 v. 1976-77 & 1977-78, I consider 2014-15 & 2015-16 El Ninos)

9) years that had a snowy winter the prior year (we had 9.8" snow, above the 30-year mean)

I get 1978, 1981, 1983 with five of nine matches each, which to me is a strong match.

These 16 years are pretty close (4 of 9 matches), and might sneak in if I included September or changed cut offs for criteria - 

1934
1941
1954
1959
1960
1962
1974
1979
1980
1993
1995
2001
2003
2004
2011
2012

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Sounds like I wasn't too far off base then. I had to cut '41 and '60 also even though I was very close to leaving them in. Thought the rest of the years were just too noisy for my liking. Had to convince myself I wasn't being wishful with '78-79 but it fit too well along with '83-84. Found some historical documentation for 1915-16 that really led me to believe it belonged there and some good reads on 1878-79 that were noteworthy but that is just too long ago to throw up there. Thanks for helping me check myself Raindance.

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I'm tempted to add '73-74 to the list as well as 1916-17. That should finalize the best collection of years I can come up with at this time.

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Joe B's winter outlook is out.

The Dec-Feb forecast is normal temps for our area. Snowfall outlook is normal through our area but above normal for Kansas and much of the western 3/4 of OK. 

Conflicting SST signals, thinks winter will be back loaded, but if it gets colder sooner then the forecast will be too warm. 

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Lol. Not enough blue on those maps for a typical JB winter forecast. I like where his forecast is at though actually. It is warmer than all the combos of analogs I came up with but the idea is the same and I would play it safe with a large area of normal this year too and just hope it's colder. I have our whole area slightly below normal with more snow than normal. Around 170% of average snow actually.

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Yeah, it's clearly a back-loaded winter he's expecting. 

Joe D's "Pioneer' model is going with these analogs:

1983-1984
1962-1963
2000-2001
1952-1953
1995-1996
1996-1997
1981-1982
2005-2006
1950-1951
1960-1961

That gives a cool look to areas east of the Rockies with the coldest being in MN/WI. 

The 'sensible' analog which apparently takes into account the SST's across various places uses:

1995-1996
1996-1997
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016

That gives a warmer look to the west and a neutral look to the south, with the cooler anomalies in the upper midwest. 

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

2011 all over again with Earthquake felt here.

I guess I was asleep through it. The one in 2011 gave me a type of weird motion sickness so kinda glad I slept through this one.

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SST CA for Sept:

 

The temps for DJF are neutral to warm for our area.

cat2m_anom.3.gif

 

JFM is cold in the central and eastern US, which likely means that we get colder as we go along, or Dec is a really warm month by comparison.

cat2m_anom.4.gif

 

The DJF period did get slightly cooler from last months run.

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Here's what I have so far. I like where I'm at. I think December becomes a winter months again this year so I guess that's where myself and many others differ.

cd70.215.197.47.243.4.37.52.prcp.png

cd70.215.197.47.243.4.39.19.prcp.png

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New Euro seasonal supposedly looks a lot like 2013-2014. I'll take it. That was a good winter. Got dryslotted on the big Feb 4th storm but got many snowstorms that year, even as early as Dec!

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6 hours ago, JoMo said:

New Euro seasonal supposedly looks a lot like 2013-2014. I'll take it. That was a good winter. Got dryslotted on the big Feb 4th storm but got many snowstorms that year, even as early as Dec!

That's what I hear. Pretty much the Alaskan/Siberian cold connection should be in full swing this winter. Especially if we see western and central Canada fill with snow by mid-October. 

2013-14 was a very fun year. There was even still a HUGE amount of untapped potential that could have boosted that one to epic standards if it would have been tapped by one really great storm. So far though, I love the map I made for the upcoming season. I remember 1917-18 being used a lot in the early forecasts for that season. I may have to add it into my analogs just for fun and see what the map changes to. Also wondering, (in hindsight of course) if the cool spell in the end of August wasn't the brief glimpse of a new pattern to come later on down the road.

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Sept. update of the UKMET looks to have a weak La Nina. Colder than normal temps and above normal precip this winter (heaviest being along I-44 in MO). Negative EPO. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

So that would be a negative PNA also with fairly strong SE ridge, right? You have an image or a link?

2cat_20160901_z500_months46_north_americ

2cat_20160901_temp2m_months46_north_amer

2cat_20160901_prec_months46_north_americ

 

 

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3 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Those maps kind of argue with themselves don't they?

I don't think so. You can see the -EPO. Shunts the trough to the eastern US which makes the central and east colder than normal. 

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

I don't think so. You can see the -EPO. Shunts the trough to the eastern US which makes the central and east colder than normal. 

Ok. I just thought that the core of the cold was centered in an unusual place for that to be the recurring precip "battle zone" area. Normally the coldest anomalies are found to the northwest of the wettest anomalies.

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2 hours ago, JoMo said:

Both the JMA and JAMSTEC are torchy for this winter for pretty much everyone. Hmm.

This is what the JAMSTEC had last Sept for Winter 2015-16:

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

I like the SE warm, the upper MW cold, and the SW near average for this winter. A lot of the analogs I like seem to have violent shifts in the NAO, so temperatures may go a bit crazy. 

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6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is what the JAMSTEC had last Sept for Winter 2015-16:

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

I like the SE warm, the upper MW cold, and the SW near average for this winter. A lot of the analogs I like seem to have violent shifts in the NAO, so temperatures may go a bit crazy. 

Good point. I forgot how horribly wrong that model was last year. There's just nothing sensibly that tells me analog wise that we're in for a blowtorch this year.

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8 hours ago, JoMo said:

Both the JMA and JAMSTEC are torchy for this winter for pretty much everyone. Hmm.

The shenanigans with the QBO might be blowing the long range models' wheels.  The whole globe is AN.    

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6 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

The shenanigans with the QBO might be blowing the long range models' wheels.  The whole globe is AN.    

I thought the only long range or seasonal model with the capability of factoring in the QBO was the Euro.

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1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

I thought the only long range or seasonal model with the capability of factoring in the QBO was the Euro.

You may be right.  I thought the Jamstec at least might have it.  

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