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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2016-17 Winter Discussion


lookingnorth

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The warmth around the pole looks pretty locked in for right now. There are some differences between the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble as we go into Dec.

The main difference being off the west coast and into Alaska. While the GFS has the toughing farther south near CA/OR the Euro is farther NW with it. Also no ridging going up into Alaska on the Euro. There's also other differences upstream from that. Basically if you draw a line up and down the center of this map, everything to the right is very similar to what the Euro ensembles show... Everything to the left has differences. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png

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I'm new here to Kansas City area from NC and am excited for some white stuff! I'm not too knowledgeable with the maps and lingo, but learning a little.

i noticed on 2 apps that we have a possibility for some snow at night on day 13, as well as snow showers on day/night 14. May not happen,but nice to see the flake on the forcasts.

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7 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said:

I'm new here to Kansas City area from NC and am excited for some white stuff! I'm not too knowledgeable with the maps and lingo, but learning a little.

i noticed on 2 apps that we have a possibility for some snow at night on day 13, as well as snow showers on day/night 14. May not happen,but nice to see the flake on the forcasts.

Probably because the GFS is bringing a system by around that time. It'll probably change though so don't get your hopes up yet. :)

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Not hating the Euro weeklies today. Waiting on the rest of the data and to see if the Parallel run comes in but the ensemble run looked decent. Some colder than normal 850 temps showing up around Dec 1st or so, brief respite then real cold 850 temps plow in around the 7th or so and stays below normal until the 21st or so. More below normal hits the 24th through the 27th, and then the 29th through the 1st. Hopefully the rest of the data comes in.

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Let it snow!! :)

In all seriousness, thanks for your updates! I'm kinda a newbie to all this weather talk after living in S FL for 36 years and a brief 4 years in the Carolinas where a dusting shuts the town down! So, when my husband said we are being transferred with her work here, I said, "Bring it"! Now, neighbors tell me it doesn't snow much here (Kansas City Suburbs- Olathe, KS)

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Parallel still hasn't come in yet but the normal weeklies have finished. There's definitely a period of cold after the first week of Dec showing up as the trough crosses from the western US to eastern US. Control run has frozen stuff around Dec 13th and around the 27th or so. Subject to change wildly of course, but it's nice to at least see something.

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Given the pattern evolution throughout this month, the first weekend of December has really had my attention for a little while. Now the Euro Weeklies are beginning to see that as well it seems. I'd be interested to see if we can't get something going to open the month and spike our interests. 

 

Some of us are going to knock out our first 32, 30 and 28 degree freezes in one shot Saturday night into Sunday. Can't remember that ever happening like that.

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Parallel Euro Weeklies have finally come in..... After probably the first week of Dec... it's below normal on surface temps across much of the US through the entire run which ends Jan 1st. Coldest of the air looks to be east of the Rockies across E CO, W KS and NE. Wow.

Coast to coast cold from about Mid-Dec on. 

 

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1 hour ago, JoMo said:

Parallel Euro Weeklies have finally come in..... After probably the first week of Dec... it's below normal on surface temps across much of the US through the entire run which ends Jan 1st. Coldest of the air looks to be east of the Rockies across E CO, W KS and NE. Wow.

Coast to coast cold from about Mid-Dec on. 

 

Great improvement, maybe we get our winter yet.  Thanks for updating 

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On 11/17/2016 at 10:33 AM, kwolfe904 said:

I'm new here to Kansas City area from NC and am excited for some white stuff! I'm not too knowledgeable with the maps and lingo, but learning a little.

i noticed on 2 apps that we have a possibility for some snow at night on day 13, as well as snow showers on day/night 14. May not happen,but nice to see the flake on the forcasts.

Welcome to Kansas City! Compared to NC outside the mountains KC does well with snow. However KC does not get the big snows of the Northeast, no Gulf Stream. KC is a great place for severe weather. Olathe offers quick access west or south for storm chasing closer to the heart of the Alley. I grew up in Overland Park.

I like the Royals, Chiefs, Jayhawks, Sporting KC, and Tornadoes! Back on topic, ignore the GFS past Day 10. Be very skeptical even to Day 7. At Day 5 it might have the right trend. At Day 3 it might actually be somewhat useful. Euro is more reliable. Add a couple days to each category of trust. NAM goes out 60-84 hours depending on your model site, but do not get hopes up until 48 hours - preferably 36 hours.

KC/OP looks warmer than normal for a couple more weeks. -NAO has cold chatter going back East, but not really for the Heartland. Stormy west could mean warm Chinook for the Plains. Later in December western US upper ridging would be more favorable for cold there. Cheers!

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2 hours ago, JoMo said:

12z GEFS still looks good for after Dec 1st. Timing individual systems is up to the operational at closer ranges but this is a good look for colder temps.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

JoMo, you gotta be loving some of the ensemble runs on the Euro huh? That period in the 10-15 just keeps looking better and better. I know a lot could still change but a cold December is looking like a near lock already.

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1 hour ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

JoMo, you gotta be loving some of the ensemble runs on the Euro huh? That period in the 10-15 just keeps looking better and better. I know a lot could still change but a cold December is looking like a near lock already.

Yep, the mean is finally showing below normal temps after Dec 1st. Some of the individual members are quite cold as the -EPO builds.

GFS is going to be fun to watch as it tries to pop multiple storm systems....

So close....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

 

Hmm

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png

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