KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 If you want snow in KC next week don't look at the new GFS. Cold and dry. Really struggling with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, KC metro said: If you want snow in KC next week don't look at the new GFS. Cold and dry. Really struggling with this pattern. I'm mean, it remains to be seen how much it is struggling but it has been trending drier for several runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: I'm mean, it remains to be seen how much it is struggling but it has been trending drier for several runs in a row now. The Euro and Canadian are wetter, so we will see. Euro is usually a better longer range model and the GFS is usually playing catch up. But, it's trending drier and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, KC metro said: The Euro and Canadian are wetter, so we will see. Euro is usually a better longer range model and the GFS is usually playing catch up. But, it's trending drier and further south. 00z Canadian isn't. Maybe a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 It has time to trend back up but the trend isn't our friend on any models except maybe the euro. Which I don't have access too. The Canadian gives me 2-3 inches in Columbia with tonight's/tomorrow's system and I don't see anyway that happens. So I have zero faith in it at all, no matter what the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 21 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z Canadian isn't. Maybe a few flurries. 00z Canadian looks decent in Texas/OK panhandle then seems to fall apart. Edit: Apparently I was still looking at the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 No Euro for me tonight. I'll post tomorrow morning if it or the ensembles showed anything interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 00z Euro had a bit heavier snowfall up near the KC area and roughly the northern 1/2 of Missouri and Kansas. Amount falling out of the sky was generally 2-6". Otherwise nothing really exciting except for some very light precip next Sunday morning which might be frozen across roughly the same areas of Missouri. Looking at the ensembles, the location of the snow might be a little more settled to the area depicted, the amounts could end up a little higher. Down the road, the ensembles were ugly as the trough redevelops into western Canada and Alaska which leads to a zonal flow across the US with high pressure nudging in and a warm up. This happens just past mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Having looked at last nights Euro and this mornings GFS the models are in good agreement on location. Central KS through north central Missouri (near KC) looks to be the best area for accumulating snow. The timing is Wednesday, although the GFS is about 6 hours faster. Amounts differ in the models. Euro would show 2-5" in the heavier snow band while the GFS would be 1-2". The GFS did trend wetter than what it showed last night. The GEFS (ensembles) are closer to the euro. All in all, confidence is increasing in timing and location. Still need to shore up amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 What does the euro have for Columbia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 19 minutes ago, MUWX said: What does the euro have for Columbia? 2-3" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 New 12z GFS holds serve with the snow on wed. It may even be a tick wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 FWIW, NAM is more in line with the Euro in showing heavier QPF... leads to higher snow totals. NAM is still faster than the euro though, and generally further south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: FWIW, NAM is more in line with the Euro in showing heavier QPF... leads to higher snow totals. NAM is still faster than the euro though, and generally further south too. GFS starting to come around. Trending wetter for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 12z GFS better today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 12z Canadian GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 12z Euro a bit drier than last night, also a touch farther south. I'd say probably 2-5" across central to east central Kansas and far west central MO. Still a couple inches into central and NE MO. Overall, still generally a light snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 31 minutes ago, JoMo said: 12z Euro a bit drier than last night, also a touch farther south. I'd say probably 2-5" across central to east central Kansas and far west central MO. Still a couple inches into central and NE MO. Overall, still generally a light snow event. I agree looking pretty good up there for some snow per 12z. I'll enjoy the cold at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Probly will not get anything down this way with this weeks upcoming storm but my friend in davenport iowa just sent me a pic, ugh winter storm warning up there right now with up to 7". A heavy wet snow at that but its cool to see! Beings we dont get much down here he will always send me pics when it snows up there haha! Makes me salty to say the least lol Well was going to put the image in here but some reason this new forum is giving me issues with my imgur links, eh who knows. Heres the link if you guys wanna see it though, should work Davenport Iowa Snow 12-4-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 12z Euro and GFS is pretty good agreement now. Looks like a 2-4" snow event shaping up on Wednesday from central Kansas across to western and central Missouri. Some areas may get an inch or so and I could see an isolated 5" under the heavier snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwolfe904 Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Does Kansas City look in to be in that swath of snow? Send a bunch to Olathe, KS Actually, this FL girl will be happy just to see it falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said: Does Kansas City look in to be in that swath of snow? Send a bunch to Olathe, KS Actually, this FL girl will be happy just to see it falling! Currently looks like a couple inches possible up there, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, kwolfe904 said: Does Kansas City look in to be in that swath of snow? Send a bunch to Olathe, KS Actually, this FL girl will be happy just to see it falling! Yes! 1-3" looks likely currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 That Chiefs game though! Wow..... Nothing too exciting on the Euro ensembles. Still showing a warmup type of pattern just past mid-month with troughing in Alaska and NW Canada so enjoy the snow on Wed. There was more spread on temps though meaning it's a little uncertain and not a unanimous decision on warm temps in the long range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 It's a good thing the 18z NAM isn't accurate in its long range. It would suggest very little snow on Wednesday. Yikes. 18z GFS looks terrible as well. Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 The 18z gfs backed off snowfall totals in addition the the nam. Canadian stayed similar at 18z but it only had about an inch at 12z so totals dropped overall this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 An let the model mayhem begin haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z NAM running right now....will the model madness continue? Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 00z NAM has no accumulation for most of MO. A dusting to 1" would fall in central KS. Best chance for accumulating snow would be for western KS. This is just 1 model and we are still 60-72 hours out but the trends have not been good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, KC metro said: 00z NAM has no accumulation for most of MO. A dusting to 1" would fall in central KS. Best chance for accumulating snow would be for western KS. This is just 1 model and we are still 60-72 hours out but the trends have not been good today. It is interesting that the model spits out no accumulation, especially when it has several sustained hours of decent snowfall returns over portions of the region. Curious to me. It looks wetter than the 18z run. Oh well. Now we wait for the next models to do their thing. Either way, brrrr.... it is going to get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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