Wx 24/7 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 And the 00z NAM is a bit juicier tonight than the earlier in the day runs. Not that it's a blizzard by any stretch but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Yeah I was about to say the 00z NAM (12 km) upped amounts a bit. More of the flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 At least it's a step in the right direction. Nothing to get too excited about yet but seeing flakes before Christmas would be a win in my book. EDIT: 12z NAM showed absolutely nothing so it's a good change in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 NAM is better for you guys up there this run thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 It's coming back guys not over yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 48 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Good news for a change! It's also possible it's completely wrong as well, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 32 minutes ago, JoMo said: It's also possible it's completely wrong as well, lol Yes, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 That -PNA is a killer on the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Funny only a chance of rain after 3am and its been raining pretty good here now for over an hour. Temps went up some too. Tulsa has a 20 percent chance of snow for wed. night here though up until midnight lol. I'd be happy to see some flurries after last seasons dead winter! I just hope its not warm on xmas eve/xmas day like last year bleh, I think it was like 49 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GEFS is colder farther south in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Boring, mostly cold, and mostly dry describes the 12z Euro. That ugly SW ridge showing up. +AO. The Rockies and west of there gonna bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I would hate to have to forecast more than a week in advance. EPS mean has Dec 19th as the day it goes above normal and stays that way through at least the 21st. However, the control actually has more Arctic air surging in and probably a little less than half the ensemble members have it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Its just a waiting game, like last year wait and see. Tulsa has better pops in there for tom. afternoon up until 1am, even a smidge hint of a dusting maybe just maybe lol? I know Im not getting my hopes up, no way that led to extreme disappointment and over saltiness last season haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC metro Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Tomorrow still looks like flurries for central KS to west central MO. The air is simply too dry to allow for much accumulation. If we get some higer ratios than 10:1 which is likely some areas could see a dusting to 1/2 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Here's a detailed video take on this weeks cold blast forecast by "Weather Decoded"... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5LZny5BEVI&t=921s maybe snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 The pattern still has some evolving to do but I think it's still headed in the right direction overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 From what I've been seeing on the models...I think we get cold, and if we get really lucky, we may get a storm or two. There were a couple of ensemble members in both the GFS/Euro camp indicating a big overrunning event anywhere from Day 9 to like Day 13. Then there's going to be a 'relaxation' where it looks like all the storminess will be up in Canada as our cold air is gradually eroded from the west/warms up. After that, who knows. Also, something to watch out for...Both the 12z Canadian control and 12z Euro control actually had above normal heights over us at 500 MB, but Arctic air sliding down at 850 MB in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 50 minutes ago, JoMo said: From what I've been seeing on the models...I think we get cold, and if we get really lucky, we may get a storm or two. There were a couple of ensemble members in both the GFS/Euro camp indicating a big overrunning event anywhere from Day 9 to like Day 13. Then there's going to be a 'relaxation' where it looks like all the storminess will be up in Canada as our cold air is gradually eroded from the west/warms up. After that, who knows. Also, something to watch out for...Both the 12z Canadian control and 12z Euro control actually had above normal heights over us at 500 MB, but Arctic air sliding down at 850 MB in the long range. Arctic high again then? That's what it sounds like. The Euro is kinda losing it with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 00z Euro is trying to get something going around Day 10. Big differences at the end from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 hours ago, JoMo said: 00z Euro is trying to get something going around Day 10. Big differences at the end from the 12z run. I think it may be trying to bend that raging jet finally. It just can't figure out what to do with it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Chance of drizzle, then zr and snow after 3pm today....the forecast has been changing non stop over this small thing lol. Just small percentages right now, I'll be happy to see some flurries later haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Reshuffle happening on the 12z GFS today. 12z Canadian has a bit of snow for some folks with the weekend system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Pretty solid band sitting over Columbia. Nothing making it to the ground. Saw some snow reports from the kc area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Girlfriend just sent me a video, I'm at home not even 5 miles south of her work and its snowing there off and on!!! Seriously lol, not the first time I have seen this happen here. It seems like 412 and north in this area is the cutoff line, so strange and weird! Moweatherguy anything up that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Girlfriend just sent me a video, I'm at home not even 5 miles south of her work and its snowing there off and on!!! Seriously lol, not the first time I have seen this happen here. It seems like 412 and north in this area is the cutoff line, so strange and weird! Moweatherguy anything up that way? I was out at lunch in Springdale about an hour ago and it flurried hard on me for about 10 mins. So I've seen my first flakes this winter. Pretty while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 12z Euro has snow with the weekend system too far NW for many of us (IA/NE) Another Arctic surge next week... and then the Day 10ish system too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 37 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: I was out at lunch in Springdale about an hour ago and it flurried hard on me for about 10 mins. So I've seen my first flakes this winter. Pretty while it lasted. Yea it's doing things here now too off and on, like a zr or sleet flurry mix. Not heavy but man after last winter I will gladly take this lol!!! It didnt get nearly as warm today either as tulsa was thinking. 30 percent chance and it does something, they say 100 percent chance and sometimes nothing haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 16 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said: Yea it's doing things here now too off and on, like a zr or sleet flurry mix. Not heavy but man after last winter I will gladly take this lol!!! It didnt get nearly as warm today either as tulsa was thinking. 30 percent chance and it does something, they say 100 percent chance and sometimes nothing haha. Yah those forecasts will drive u nuts this time of yr. Coming down pretty good here again now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said: Yah those forecasts will drive u nuts this time of yr. Coming down pretty good here again now. Just off and on light zr here with sleet mixed in. Same there or just plain ole snow? Send it down here man haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, NwWhiteOut said: Just off and on light zr here with sleet mixed in. Same there or just plain ole snow? Send it down here man haha Pretty much done here it appears. I'm wondering now about frz drizzle. Could be an interesting commute home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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