CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Could be a lot of high pressure nosing in too. I think we had that in Oct 2013. Lots of nice oranges at 500mb, but srfc temps were reasonable iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well when normals are in the upper 50's and 60's..75-80 seems to be a torch. Normals for that map you posted are more like 64F at ORH and 69F at BDL for highs. You don't see upper 50s until the start of the third week of October at ORH. That map is valid Oct 2-6. Just good to clarify "normals" as the info is so easy to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could be a lot of high pressure nosing in too. I think we had that in Oct 2013. Lots of nice oranges at 500mb, but srfc temps were reasonable iirc. Overall it just looks like a prolonged period of the public's favorite weather...warm afternoons with low humidity and a little chill for the radiators with longer nights and high diurnal trends. +5 to +7 would be about the sweet spot up here during that time, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: After our mild down this weekend..we've got a west moving typhoon in the pacific..all ENS torching first 2 weeks of Oct in tandem 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: After our mild down this weekend..we've got a west moving typhoon in the pacific..all ENS torching first 2 weeks of Oct in tandem Well, that fits with the 06z GFS bringing a hurricane up the coast in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 yup... Will and i were discussing that the other day, the 'back doorness' look on the greater synoptic scale - it's almost continental tuck going on... bump the whole thing east a couple few clicks of longitude and it near misses altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Quite a change in 6 hours between the 06z and 12z GFS at h5, lol. So long to that hurricane potential in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Might be able to get some rain if some of the ensembles are right. That cutoff low may meander east mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 24 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Quite a change in 6 hours between the 06z and 12z GFS at h5, lol. So long to that hurricane potential in la la land. Instead of crushing New England at 384, now it washes away Sable Island at 324. Totally vaporized by tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Well chances are somewhere between the East Coast and Bermuda, they'll be a tropical this time of year. Either it will be separate or phasing into a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 This may be the most boring 19 consecutive months of my weather life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Lame a$$ ending to a monumental winter, followed by a disgraceful tropical season, hideous winter with a coc*-teasingly tantalizing whiff of a monumental blizzard, followed up by a cane season full of useless events in the midst of the most severe drought of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Ray doesn't post much in the warmer months but when he does he nails it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lame a$$ ending to a monumental winter, followed by a disgraceful tropical season, hideous winter with a coc*-teasingly tantalizing whiff of a monumental blizzard, followed up by a cane season full of useless events in the midst of the most severe drought of my life. I have not had a warning level snowfall since February 2015! As for severe I can't even remember the last good event and that is where W SNE usually shines above the rest of the region . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Bububuuuttttt severe season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have not had a warning level snowfall since February 2015! . You got me beat I think... December 2014 here in the backyard haha. Of course the mountain has exceeded 7"/12hrs since then but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Man living in a bubble is pretty cool. Had a blizzard in Feb with almost a foot, a concrete snowstorm with lots of tree damage and power outages and transformers exploding, hurricane force wind gusts day, a zero day with wind chills 50 below. A unbelievable April warning level snowfall then a 2 day lightning storm in August with the most intense lightning I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 I think Ray is looking for more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 12 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have not had a warning level snowfall since February 2015! As for severe I can't even remember the last good event and that is where W SNE usually shines above the rest of the region . I mean we have been pretty lucky in that regard, because warning level snowfall isn't all that common. A place like BOS only averages about 2 per year, maybe 4 once you get out by your area. Hell the picnic tables only average 9 per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean we have been pretty lucky in that regard, because warning level snowfall isn't all that common. A place like BOS only averages about 2 per year, maybe 4 once you get out by your area. Hell the picnic tables only average 9 per year. That's unbelievable that BOS only averages 2 per year...seems like 4-6. The good ol' stat of 8 at BOS since the interior zone ALB-BTV has had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean we have been pretty lucky in that regard, because warning level snowfall isn't all that common. A place like BOS only averages about 2 per year, maybe 4 once you get out by your area. Hell the picnic tables only average 9 per year. Wow, I didn't realize it was that uncommon. I guess we had been on a good roll. E MA especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wow, I didn't realize it was that uncommon. I guess we had been on a good roll. E MA especially. For every Leon with 8 6" days, there's a 2011-2012 where BOS can't even pull a 3" day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 not that wondered, but ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 we may and likely will have return intervals to warmth as summer rages against the dying of the light ... but those are death gasps... this is more than Will and my's "shot across the bow" - this ordeal incoming is a torpedo into the hull. i'd say that over the course of the last month, Summer began reeling by the weight of change, but this? this is the real disgusting sounding bone crack from the back, where the by-stander's go, 'eew' is that guy gonna be all right?' nope... he'll be hauled up in traction in a fleeting hope by medical staff but complications will claim his life and his body will soon be cold and stiff as a N wind in November. joking aside, I do find it still interesting that we can get this to happen in an otherwise warm look over all. one way or the other, we get our average first frost date - ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 This should be read aloud like the Night Before Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Euro and the ensemble back with cutoff next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro and the ensemble back with cutoff next week. it's an utter dice roller scenario D5-7 as to whether that will take place like that and that evolution et al. GFS is about split 50/50 on run cycles, one type doing perversions of the same thing, while the others have monster SE ridge re-asserting at least excuse imaginable. that leaves about zippo corrective usefulness there. sensible implications couldn't be more disparate. meanwhile, the Euro tends to present over zealous trough presentation east of ~ 100 latitude over mid latitudes of NE during that particular time range as a matter of bias/course. though for some reason that observation doesn't ever seem to show up on verification scores - weird... but i see it all the time; whatever verifies is either a weaker version (by notable mass components), or doesn't at all. if that were not enough ... since the GFS went 4-D variable system over the last year or so, i've been detecting a similar tendency - which is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's an utter dice roller scenario D5-7 as to whether that will take place like that and that evolution et al. GFS is about split 50/50 on run cycles, one type doing perversions of the same thing, while the others have monster SE ridge re-asserting at least excuse imaginable. that leaves about zippo corrective usefulness there. sensible implications couldn't be more disparate. meanwhile, the Euro tends to present over zealous trough presentation east of ~ 100 latitude over mid latitudes of NE during that particular time range as a matter of bias/course. though for some reason that observation doesn't ever seem to show up on verification scores - weird... but i see it all the time; whatever verifies is either a weaker version (by notable mass components), or doesn't at all. if that were not enough ... since the GFS went 4-D variable system over the last year or so, i've been detecting a similar tendency - which is fascinating. The differences from 12z show up already at hr 48. You can see that in the vorticity fields in the nrn plains. I don't buy it yet, but it does seem plausible given that look and stout WAR in place to help maintain a blocky look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The differences from 12z show up already at hr 48. You can see that in the vorticity fields in the nrn plains. I don't buy it yet, but it does seem plausible given that look and stout WAR in place to help maintain a blocky look. heh, now this run just has a amplified trough that it immediately opens back up in lieu of the SE ridge again ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 We cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 somehow i find it hard to believe that Euro will be successful in bringing wet snow plumes into eastern NE at D10 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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