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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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Statistical tie for 2nd place with 2007 on NSIDC.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for 2016 on September 10. A relatively rapid loss of sea ice in the first ten days of September has pushed the ice extent to a statistical tie with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record. September’s low extent followed a summer characterized by conditions generally unfavorable for sea ice loss.

That September ice extent nevertheless fell to second lowest in the satellite record is hence surprising. Averaged for July through August, air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) were 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (1 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average over much of the central Arctic Ocean, and near average to slightly higher than average near the North American and easternmost Siberian coasts. Reflecting the stormy conditions, sea level pressures were much lower than average in the central Arctic during these months.

Why did extent fall to a tie for second lowest with 2007? The 2016 Arctic melt season started with arecord low maximum extent in March, and sea ice was measured at record low monthly extents well into June. Computer models of ice thickness, and maps of sea ice age both indicated a much thinner ice pack at the end of winter. Statistically, there is little relationship between May and September sea ice extents after removing the long-term trend, indicating the strong role of summer weather patterns in controlling sea ice loss. However, the initial ice thickness may play a significant role. As noted in our mid-August post, the upper ocean was quite warm this summer and ocean-driven melting is important during late summer. The science community will be examining these issues in more detail in coming months.

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2016 finished 3rd by their metrics.

 

Quote

since the minimum extent of 4.13 million square kilometers (1.59 million square miles) on September 16

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007/10/589/#26September

 

Quote

On September 10, Arctic sea ice extent stood at 4.14 million square kilometers

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Additionally, NSIDC always fails to mentioned sea ice extent minimum values before 2012 were based on a nine day trailing mean. Since then we have a 5 day trailing mean, which makes the minimum extent value appear lower than it would be had there been a 9 day trailing mean. The 2016 arctic sea ice extent minimum based on a 9 day trailing mean is 4.18 million square kilometers. For those wondering the daily NSIDC arctic sea ice extent daily minimum value was September 7th, 2016. 

 

Well done NSIDC :clap:

Edit: I encourage you to calculate the 9 day trailing mean from NSIDC's own database below.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv

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4 hours ago, Ufasuperstorm said:

2016 finished 3rd by their metrics.

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007/10/589/#26September

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Additionally, NSIDC always fails to mentioned sea ice extent minimum values before 2012 were based on a nine day trailing mean. Since then we have a 5 day trailing mean, which makes the minimum extent value appear lower than it would be had there been a 9 day trailing mean. The 2016 arctic sea ice extent minimum based on a 9 day trailing mean is 4.18 million square kilometers. For those wondering the daily NSIDC arctic sea ice extent daily minimum value was September 7th, 2016. 

 

Well done NSIDC :clap:

Edit: I encourage you to calculate the 9 day trailing mean from NSIDC's own database below.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt_v2.csv

Yeah, the whole arctic ice situation really isn't that bad. 

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16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is interesting they mention the upper ocean heat...I wonder if the exceptionally strong El Nino made it worse this summer than recent years.

This will probably be the first melt year that is remembered more for the winter and spring than the summer.

 

 

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20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is interesting they mention the upper ocean heat...I wonder if the exceptionally strong El Nino made it worse this summer than recent years.

Northern oceans have continued to warm while el-nino fades cooling the tropics. See also:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.year.html

ssta_global_1_CDAS_9_16_16.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

That may be but he had a video stating that the Barrow sea ice cam was down to hide the fact of the record freeze up which is false. The cam is working and shows open ocean.

The jaxa sea ice data doesn't show ice there, what's the conspiracy?

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This September has seen the largest increase from the minimum on record with still 3 days to go in the month. It is also in contention for the largest net gain of ice in the month (Sept 1st to Sept 30th). 

 

So this has definitely been a pretty remarkable refreeze thus far. Should be a very warm autumn with all the latent heat release going on. 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Here comes the annual October spike in Arctic Amplification as the refreeze releases heat back into the atmosphere under strong blocking.

Looks like Siberia will be the big winner in the warm Arctic very little cold for the continents pattern.

 

 

OCT.png

 

The arctic had almost no issues until the mid to late 1990's.

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16 hours ago, Bacon Strips said:

the odd looking warmth to continue.

it looks so weird being branched off like that. 

wheres Global Warmer been? long time no see.    he usually goes crazy over these things.

 

gfs_arctic_012_10m_wnd_2m_temp.gif

Lots of icepack getting destroyed, demolished, obliterated, who's going to give a play by play?

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9 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Does this have any bearing on how fast next summer's melt may happen with such a late start the re-freeze. I guess that ice thickness overall would be less with a shorter winter season?

 

negative, as the same was expected to occur this summer...but never panned out.    As an unusually cold pattern this summer, made up for the unusually warm pattern over the arctic from January - March.

either way, I agree with Blue on how odd things have become with October so far.   Shows how quick just 15 days could throw a monkey-wrench into things.

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On 10/17/2016 at 3:55 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Does this have any bearing on how fast next summer's melt may happen with such a late start the re-freeze. I guess that ice thickness overall would be less with a shorter winter season?

It probably doesn't help to have such warm temps the last month or two, but there's lots of other more important factors at play.

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