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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

not having CT area data really stinks. i hate using extent

 

CT area as calculated by wipneus on the arctic sea ice forum is currently 3rd lowest...just below 2011 and above 2007 (2012 is long gone).

 

So we def still have a solid chance at getting the 2nd place spot. We'll have to see how the ESS does in the next week...we've lost a ton of area in the central CAB just north of the CAA/Greenland recently and that spot can refreeze pretty fast in late August, so I'm guessing we'll need to see that arm of ice in the ESS get hit hard to secure 2nd place.

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To finish 2nd, shadow CT needs to drop 326k from its current readings. (It would need 996k for 1st.) The next few days look fairly cold and stormy, but the EPS shows conditions favorable for melt from D5 onwards. As weak as the remnant ESS arm of the pack is at the moment, I would expect almost all (if not entirely all) of that part to melt off. The Laptev arm isn't looking too hot either, but it's late enough that it'll probably survive in some fashion. At this time, a solid 2nd place finish looks good. Pretty remarkable, considering the vast majority of the summer remained colder than normal.

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6 hours ago, csnavywx said:

To finish 2nd, shadow CT needs to drop 326k from its current readings. (It would need 996k for 1st.) The next few days look fairly cold and stormy, but the EPS shows conditions favorable for melt from D5 onwards. As weak as the remnant ESS arm of the pack is at the moment, I would expect almost all (if not entirely all) of that part to melt off. The Laptev arm isn't looking too hot either, but it's late enough that it'll probably survive in some fashion. At this time, a solid 2nd place finish looks good. Pretty remarkable, considering the vast majority of the summer remained colder than normal.

Considering where we started I think it's remarkable that this year wasn't a record melt!

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11 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Considering where we started I think it's remarkable that this year wasn't a record melt!

 

You can look at it both ways this year...we had a record warm spring (after a record warm winter) and June actually wasn't that cold...maybe slightly below normal, but it ranked like 19th or something since 1979. 2013 and 2014 ranked in the top 5 coldest. There was unprecedented open water on the pacific side early in the season. So the ice came into this summer in about the worst shape it could have given the starting point at the end of last melt season. Yet, we're not going to come close to the record.

 

On the other hand, July and August have been cold and yet we're still challenging the 2nd lowest season. So that sounds impressive too.

 

 

It will be a race between the ESS arm of ice melting down and the CAB slush pool refreezing late this month that determines the exact spot we finish.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i was using the amsr2 numbers from wipneus 

 

Doesn't he use SSMI/S for 2012 though? That would not be the best comparison.

If those numbers are accurate though, then they will show up on most metrics very soon. I'm a bit skeptical on that though.

 

I do think there's higher than normal risk for a late crash given all the marginal concentration....but on the flip side, I could see a pretty big area spike if that stuff near the pole starts to refreeze in the next 4-6 days. That's a difficult area to keep low concentration this late.

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

You can look at it both ways this year...we had a record warm spring (after a record warm winter) and June actually wasn't that cold...maybe slightly below normal, but it ranked like 19th or something since 1979. 2013 and 2014 ranked in the top 5 coldest. There was unprecedented open water on the pacific side early in the season. So the ice came into this summer in about the worst shape it could have given the starting point at the end of last melt season. Yet, we're not going to come close to the record.

 

On the other hand, July and August have been cold and yet we're still challenging the 2nd lowest season. So that sounds impressive too.

 

 

It will be a race between the ESS arm of ice melting down and the CAB slush pool refreezing late this month that determines the exact spot we finish.

 

 

 

Agree on both accounts

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2 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Ice loss has slowed the past few days, as expected. No Icepocalypse, nothing like 2012.

We have gained sea ice extent and sea ice area; each of the last two days. (Today should make a 3rd) We are now 25.5 thousand square kilometers and 87.7 thousand square kilometers, with respect to extent and area, above the 2016 minimum values. 

 

bw_area_wgt_925mb_nAO_2016_zpsz1pmu5m0.g

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1 hour ago, Ufasuperstorm said:

We have gained sea ice extent and sea ice area; each of the last two days. (Today should make a 3rd) We are now 25.5 thousand square kilometers and 87.7 thousand square kilometers, with respect to extent and area, above the 2016 minimum values. 

 

 

We gained area on today's update but we didn't gain extent on any of the main datasets. I'm not sure which datasets you are using to get those numbers. 

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54 minutes ago, Ufasuperstorm said:

Wipneus AMSR2 extent & area calculation

 

Ahhh...right. I don't usually use those since they have no real history (only back to 2013 AMSR2).

Though the bootstrap AMSR2 data from U Bremen does look like a slowdown the last couple days:

 

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_previous.png

 

 

 

The ice still looks pretty precarious though so I wouldn't be surprised if we see some big drops between now and the min. I don't know if it will be enough to finish below 2011, 2015, or 2007...but we'll see. You can see on the graph how 2015took a really steep dive starting this week.

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1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Folks who were hoping for 2012 cyclone repeat forget that volume is better than that summer.

And that pattern was much different than the one we've been in the past few days. Much smaller cyclone, stronger, and not nearly as cold.

Looks like a dipole develops next, though, so should see losses pick up again soon. But we're well past peak melting season, so that's the good news (if you're rooting for ice survival rather than annihilation).

 

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This is officially the slowest melt season from June 21st to August 21st on NSIDC going back to 2007.

The only reason we are challenging 2nd or 3rd place is due to the record warmth and dipole pattern

from the winter into spring. The 2012 record low will last at least 5 years just like the 2007 record low did.

 

NSIDC 6/1-8/21 loss since 2007

2016...6005

2015...6328

2014...6369

2013...6599

2012...7944

2011...6735

2010...6247

2009...6451

2008...6585

2007...7156

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10 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

And that pattern was much different than the one we've been in the past few days. Much smaller cyclone, stronger, and not nearly as cold.

Looks like a dipole develops next, though, so should see losses pick up again soon. But we're well past peak melting season, so that's the good news (if you're rooting for ice survival rather than annihilation).

 

You were thinking 4-6'th at the start of the stormy period. Is that still your call?

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6 hours ago, chubbs said:

You were thinking 4-6'th at the start of the stormy period. Is that still your call?

It was actually prior that I said that. Probably depends on how long the dipole persists. Hard to say, given that it's a pretty destructive pattern, but coming so late in the season. I'd probably say 3rd-5th is most likely at this point for area, at least.

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1 hour ago, frontranger8 said:

It was actually prior that I said that. Probably depends on how long the dipole persists. Hard to say, given that it's a pretty destructive pattern, but coming so late in the season. I'd probably say 3rd-5th is most likely at this point for area, at least.

Yes dipole would be much worse in June or July. I favor 2 or 3 on area.

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I am not an expert at this sort of thing. (Please take with a grain of salt) However, a click glance of the just released AMSR2 from U Bremen sea ice concentration map appears to show a significant increase in sea ice area today. It looks likely there will be a half century gain today if these images reflect reality.
 
Edit: On second glance the losses on the Atlantic side combined with the losses up towards Wrangler Island could offset the significant gain in the CAB. We shall find out tomorrow.

Arctic3125_AMSR2_nic_zpswrt8dseb.png

Arctic_AMSR2_nic_zpssodixois.png

 

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