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ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

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Area loss was a bit slower, but still relatively high. Building up a lead on 2012 there too, though I expect it to be close again in 5 days or so.

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On July 9, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent fell below 8 million square kilometers (JAXA) to 7,953,297 square kilometers. That is the earliest date on record for less than 8 million square kilometers of ice. The previous earliest such date was July 10. That record was set in 2011 and tied in 2012.

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5th consecutive NSIDC daily extent drop of 100k or greater. 2019 continues in first place on July 10th ahead of 2012. One of the most impressive weekly drops during the month of July.

7-10-19....7.996

7-10-12....8.130

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ESS is getting absolutely crushed. I highly doubt we see an ice "arm" there this year. Very impressive considering it started out in better shape this year. Doesn't bode well for CAB ice in that sector later this month.

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Finally got the slowdown in the rate of daily losses as the dipole pattern relaxes a bit. 2019 is holding on to a very small NSIDC extent lead over 2012. Area also very close to 2012.

7-12-19.....7.971

7-12-12.....8.032

F1E51B67-2E2C-4ABC-9350-5A99B9C81FDB.png.3ee12b7fc69ea3f54fa418aacf556b64.png

 

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The CAB and CAA are going to cause many tears these next 2 months.

 

FKfFwXZ.png

 

CDTu18z.png

 

PXQHECU.png

 

riUZd2L.png

 

Weather models are forecasting favorable conditions for ice retention going forward. It's going to be awesome.

 

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Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses.

 

Click to animate....

 

2019vs2012animation-7-11.gif

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2019 maintains a narrow lead over 2012 and 2011 as of July 12th. More modest 70k daily drop as the dipole relaxes from near record recent levels.

NSIDC extent

7-12-19....7.901

7-12-12....7.946

7-12-11....7.955

 

 

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On 7/13/2019 at 8:18 AM, bluewave said:

2019 maintains a narrow lead over 2012 and 2011 as of July 12th. More modest 70k daily drop as the dipole relaxes from near record recent levels.

NSIDC extent

7-12-19....7.901

7-12-12....7.946

7-12-11....7.955

 

 

Sure you are looking at the right data? I am on the site and it shows 7/12/19 at 8.062

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s right on the NSIDC site.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

We fell behind 2011 on the 13th.

7-13-11...7.765....#1

7-13-19...7.856....#2

7-13-12...7.917....#3

 

Thanks! Here is the data set I was looking at:

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

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I was looking at the GFS and it shows a lot of lower 500 mb heights over the Arctic Ocean in the next couple of weeks. Will that slow the rate of melting a lot?

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12 minutes ago, lookingnorth said:

I was looking at the GFS and it shows a lot of lower 500 mb heights over the Arctic Ocean in the next couple of weeks. Will that slow the rate of melting a lot?

Yes, most likely....we've already seen some slowing the last few days. I'm not sure this year will be able to keep pace with 2012 going forward with that pattern. But we'll see.

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127K daily drop on NSIDC extent. Continuing to run very close to 2011 and 2012 as of July 15th. The area is around  2012 on this date.

7-15-19....7.676

7-15-12....7.705

7-15-11....7.609

 

 

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On 7/12/2019 at 1:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses.

 

Click to animate....

 

2019vs2012animation-7-11.gif

Wow I bet in 2012 you never would have thought 2019 would look like that. I'm surprised the melt isn't more extreme.. 

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Continuing to see steep losses even with more a reverse dipole relative to the last few months. That tells you something about the current condition of the ice pack. NSIDC had  a -164 K daily extent drop on July 17th. So very close to 2011 and 2012 on this date. Area losses continue to keep pace with 2012.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

7-17-19.....7.454

7-17-12.....7.481

7-17-11.....7.444

721F81FE-2FBB-4AB9-9A75-94CF20CA8FE1.png.c565654962779d003335aa17d26d52fa.png

Last 5 days 

77BE79A0-5B81-46AB-A98B-7D189BF01ED7.thumb.png.211f2eeb00e4e001e430b6d9e49955b5.png

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Another big daily drop of 187K puts 2019 into 1st place on 7-19 for NSIDC extent. The early portion of August is when 2012 ran away with the lead during the record Arctic storm.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

7-18-19....7.267

7-18-11....7.299

7-18-12....7.420

A few papers on the record breaking 2012 season:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.5034

On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50190

The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Jonger said:

Not gonna happen this year.

Still a chance, but pretty low odds IMHO. We'll need some very warm August weather. Atlantic and CAA are a problem further out in time. We'll need the ESS/Laptev sectors to melt toward the pole further than 2012 did to have a chance because the ATL and CAA are going to finish higher than 2012.

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On 7/12/2019 at 1:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses.

 

Click to animate....

 

2019vs2012animation-7-11.gif

I still think it will be difficult. The ice is much higher concentration this year in the CAB/CAA, and 2012 had so much rotted ice on the Siberian side. This year, it's more just a straight line between ice/no ice.

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Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere in this forum, but is there a good place for me to learn about Arctic ice melt forecasting?

I hear you guys talking about a dipole a lot, and I would guess that that means high pressure in one place and low pressure in another place, but what does that mean for melting exactly?

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2 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere in this forum, but is there a good place for me to learn about Arctic ice melt forecasting?

I hear you guys talking about a dipole a lot, and I would guess that that means high pressure in one place and low pressure in another place, but what does that mean for melting exactly?

The classical dipole we tend to refer to typically means higher pressure on the Greenland/CAA/North American side of the basin and lower pressure on the Eurasian/Russian side. This results in a net wind and ice transport from the Pacific to Atlantic side of the basin. This typically causes high melt via transport of continental air over the central ice pack, compaction and export out through the Fram Strait and towards the Atlantic, where deep warm water makes quick work of even very thick sea ice.

A reverse dipole is the opposite situation.

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Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern. 

Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

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