Gray-Wolf

https://aliran.com/web-specials/a-tipping-point-is-playing-out-right-now-says-climate-scientist-michael-mann/

I tend to think we'd be far better placed to be dealing with the climate crisis had the likes of Mann/Hansen been listened to in the late 80's/early 90's rather than allow them to be mauled by the paid climate change Deniers for the last 2 decades? As China rapidly cleans up its polluting we are finding that 'La Nada' years can now challenge Super Nino years for global temp records?..... had we only listened to Hansen's warnings about the amount of warming that was being 'masked' by the Global Dimming a rapidly industrialising China provided we would not be scratching our heads as to 'how' a La Nada year can grab second warmest global year with only a super nino bettering its efforts.... With China showing no signs of letting up on its headlong charge to scrub all emissions we will pretty soon find out how much of that 0.68 C (that Hansen suggested was being 'masked' by Dimming?) will drop in on top of the year on year global temp rises..... Had we taken note of Mann's concerns about the Arctic we might not now be facing the peril of a Blue Ocean Event over the coming decade (& the 25 yrs worth of warming it would dump into the climate system over a single year?) but 'No!' , the empty vessels go and fill up at WUWT and bang their drum good and loud wherever they're able.... Those Stalactites, in their Siberian caves, make it plain that 1.5c above pre-industrial costs us the permafrost (and brings about a resumption in their growth as liquid water again flows over them....) So we're at 1.2 C above pre-industrial (with 0.68 C possibly waiting to put in an appearance as soon as the Sulphates/Particulates allow) and the Arctic lurching ever closer to delivering another 25 yrs worth of warming over a single year should we see the B.O.E. made flesh........ Yup! should have paid attention to them and their like for decades now instead of choosing the B.A.U. pathway whilst the Climate Change Deniers wailed....

It's another cynical manipulation of the general public aimed at leaving folk 'unalarmed' by the fires (as it's not 'definitely AGW' driving the conditions that increasingly allow for such to occur so 'no worries'?) As long as folk 'Think' the jury's still out on the peril we are ambling into (via our polluting of the planet/atmosphere) then their 'fight or flight' responses will not be triggered and so the 'Mass Movement' of folk globally demanding for radical actions to 'mitigate' all that we already have coming will not occur...... and so the folk 'profiting' from The Many not 'recognising the crisis' continue on B.A.U. There will come the first of the (to us public?) 'Black Swan Events' that does trigger most folks 'fight or flight' responses......

Were it not for the demands of 'Unfettered Capitalism' would we find ourselves facing the monumental challenges we face today? Were there not gains to be made from 'Climate Change Denial' would we still be facing such an uphill struggle to convince 'The Many' of the real & present dangers the change now ushers in? It appears , to me, that the climate change denial industrial has utilised aspects of man's polluting to shrink the probable impacts of unfettered capitalism on our climate to such a scale that 'Business as Usual' (B.A.U.) has continued un-molested by the starkest sets of warnings yet from our Climate Scientists? Sadly it appears (to me) that this use of mans impacts to support denial is at an end? The flip positive , in 2014, of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation save Antarctic sea ice extent/area plummet back to levels last seen in the late 70's/early 80's The 'mending' of the 'Ozone Hole' coinciding with this flip in the IPO seems to have been instrumental in this sudden 'flip' in sea ice behaviour but also in allowing behaviours in the polar night jet over Antarctica that we had become accustomed to seeing in the N. Hemisphere? This years SSW over Antarctica is now being held as part responsible for the temps, & so the wildfires over Australia & possibly feeding into the ocean 'hot spot' to the East of New Zealand? With China now taking its air pollution issues seriously the drop of in global dimming ,esp the regions directly downwind of China, must also be seeing impact? Areas of the Pacific that has been 'dimmed out' are now surely feeling the impacts of the sulphates/particulates being 'washed out' of the atmosphere above? To me this says that the last 'drag factors' in the speed of climate shift have been lost? The 'Naturals' are now mainly augmenting AGW & the manmade negatives (Global dimming/Ozone hole) are falling away. We were already sailing pretty close to a number of tipping points, be it carbon sink failure/reversal to 'Methane Burps' to mechanical collapse of ice sheet margins, so will this sudden acceleration in AGW prove too much so leading to tipping points being breached, or worse, climate cascades as one events promotes further events downstream? You just have to hope that 2020 will bring '2020 vision on climate' to the masses & that they rise and demand meaningful action to not only be spoken about but to be initiated!!!

We currently appear to be seeing the 'southern hemisphere' catching up with the events we have been seeing in the North for well over a decade with the development of a 'Hot Spot' to the east of New Zealand over recent months? Again a stubborn HP system has slowed the normal overturning of the surface allowing temps up to 6c above average for the time of year to develop.

I think the badly stressed/fractured ice means we can no longer get the scale 'meltponding' we saw back in 2012? There are too many 'drain points' in the ice these days This does not mean 'other factors' have now taken up that slack and so preconditioned the ice for melt? The reduction in flow size by 'bottom melt' end of the season now means 'side melt' takes ever more of the floe compared with the old multi km floes where ,compared with the 'bottom melt', such losses were negligible? The ice itself is making itself ever easier to melt more ice for the same amount of energy!

i think many folk give GAC12 too much credit for the losses over Aug that year ( sure it had impact) but the ice was already pretty messed before it struck? Todays ice is pretty messed up so let's see what happens eh?

Sadly many folk are now accepting the NeoLib capitalism is responsible for our wasteful assaults on our natural world and its resources but also that that global economics holds no solutions for our climate crisis either? Those with most to gain from the current system are also the ones who have the most power over our world under this planet killing system? They will not go anywhere near far enough to helping mitigate the woes to come but appear almost welcoming of it as a way to 'slim down' global population whilst leaving them firmly in control of a world that will then resume its consuming ways post the 'great dying'? If you still have not seen enough to show you that only a globally concerted effort will be enough to start solving this nightmare then you do not have long to wait to find yourself so convinced. Just hope it's not your hometown that is targeted by Mother N. in the next big advert for how bad things already are (with 35 yrs 'worsening ' already dialed into the climate system even it we halt polluting tomorrow!)

Melting , via the oceans warmth, overtakes the failing solar surface melt around this time of year I believe? Problem is ,as floes get smaller, there comes a size where 'side melt' overtakes bottom melt in the losses produced? ( I think the magic size is 100m across?) meaning even faster loss of the ice for the same energies available.

We now have a warm low headed over siberia increasing the pressure grad there pluss all the heat from NW Europe is bound for Greenland/Atlantic side of the basin. Folk need to look at the near real time sat images to see just how messy some areas of the ice are! Any extra heat input is just going to take out the ice rubble in rapid order leaving isolated floes in open water just in time for 'bottom melt' end of the season to kick in. Not looking good at all

How much ice volume do some folk want to see go before they accept that the past half century is way out there in terms of the last long period of time?

JAXA extent hits rock bottom for the 7th. That is both NSIDC and JAXA with us at rock bottom and the ESS is such a mess I think we will see continued high losses for a while yet? Then we have Beaufort chewing on the ice that 'relaxed' into it from the C.A.B. Interesting Times

We have a pack that PIOMAS tells us is the 'least ice' at this time of the year. We have NSIDC telling us area is at an all time low for the date and NSIDC also tell us 'compactness' is also low. Ice with water all around it is vulnerable with none of the environmental support of fellow ice floes. With so much FY ice out there ,and all of a similar thickness, are we about to see a July 'Cliff' with no equal?

There has been a lot of losses in the basin via ice floating into 'hostile ' areas that have been open water since the start of melt season. The Heat already in these Ocean areas will continue to impact area/extent even if we lose the sun and , worse still, see the ice under low pressure forcings? Any presence of ripples/waves increases the uptake in solar and reduces the amount of energy bounced back into space. Mill pond calm and cloudy/cool is what we need but I do not think any of the weather models are offering up that? It appears that all melt season the Arctic has been intent on spilling all of its cold south and accepting WAA after WAA. Now there is no cold left and the areas blighted by the polar plunges are warming via imports from their neighbours not so blighted? The season may slow over the basin but I think the continental areas to the South will be amassing plenty heat waiting for the slightest opportunity to go dump it in the basin! In a few weeks time we enter the 'bottom melt dominated' part of the season and we will see if the sub 100m floes do go at rapid speeds with their side melt taking most of their ice ( and warming the ice inside the floe from heat entering from the base/sides and , possibly, top)

We have a bit of an issue with temps being taken over big areas of the Arctic/Africa with the Arctic being the area with the potential of 'upping' the global average esp. with a record warm season like this one? Was it Cowtan and Wray(sp?) that modelled with the Arctic/African data in and it showed us no 'pause' over the noughties and us on target for the temp rises we expected? My 'OMG' moment will come when the summer 'Latent heat of fusion' pegged 'DMI 80N' plot suddenly lurches upward as open water begins to dominate modelled 2m temps over those controlled by melting ice? Every other season of the year sees DMI take some pretty big positive excursions so there is only the 'flatline ' summer that has not....... this year maybe?